|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 19, 2020, 10:01:02 AM
News:

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 20 21 22 23 24 [25] 26
Author Topic: TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting  (Read 31127 times)
VARepublican
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,387


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #600 on: October 13, 2020, 04:12:53 PM »

Logged
Abolish class
sansymcsansface
Rookie
**
Posts: 240


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #601 on: October 13, 2020, 04:14:47 PM »

Attempting to dig the bullet out of his foot, I see
Logged
VARepublican
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,387


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #602 on: October 15, 2020, 02:01:02 PM »



Logged
Monstro Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia
Interlocutor
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,502


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #603 on: October 15, 2020, 04:41:09 PM »
« Edited: October 15, 2020, 08:03:12 PM by Monstro Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia »

Hegar seems to be peaking at the absolute best time. "Cornyn will easily outperform Trump & Cruz" is quickly proving to be one of the worst, if not the worst, Senate take of the year.

The more effort I see by Beto, TX Dems & the Senate Majority PAC, the less worried I am of Biden's lack of resources here (Compared to other non-tipping point red states). TX feels like the perfect state for Biden to get reverse coattails in, based on the huge momentum surrounding Dems flipping the State House.

Hell, I'm more interested in the Senate, Congressional & State House races rather than Biden winning TX. If high early turnout with high registration rates are any indication of enthusiasm, we may be in for a TX-sized surprise that I couldn't have predicted just a week ago (Even if Biden comes close but doesn't win here)

EDIT: I wonder if the Texas GOP shot themselves in the foot at the finish line with their week-long war on dropboxes & Harris County, in my mind, signaling to Texas & the nation that it's officially a purple state.
Logged
wbrocks67
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,279
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #604 on: October 16, 2020, 05:18:53 AM »

Hegar seems to be peaking at the absolute best time. "Cornyn will easily outperform Trump & Cruz" is quickly proving to be one of the worst, if not the worst, Senate take of the year.

The more effort I see by Beto, TX Dems & the Senate Majority PAC, the less worried I am of Biden's lack of resources here (Compared to other non-tipping point red states). TX feels like the perfect state for Biden to get reverse coattails in, based on the huge momentum surrounding Dems flipping the State House.

Hell, I'm more interested in the Senate, Congressional & State House races rather than Biden winning TX. If high early turnout with high registration rates are any indication of enthusiasm, we may be in for a TX-sized surprise that I couldn't have predicted just a week ago (Even if Biden comes close but doesn't win here)

EDIT: I wonder if the Texas GOP shot themselves in the foot at the finish line with their week-long war on dropboxes & Harris County, in my mind, signaling to Texas & the nation that it's officially a purple state.

The one "bright spot" if you can say from all of the GOP hackery, is that it signals to the Dem base that they've got to go out and vote. It turbocharges turnout for the opposition when they think the other side is trying to take their vote away.
Logged
Monstro Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia
Interlocutor
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,502


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #605 on: October 16, 2020, 06:23:51 AM »

Hegar seems to be peaking at the absolute best time. "Cornyn will easily outperform Trump & Cruz" is quickly proving to be one of the worst, if not the worst, Senate take of the year.

The more effort I see by Beto, TX Dems & the Senate Majority PAC, the less worried I am of Biden's lack of resources here (Compared to other non-tipping point red states). TX feels like the perfect state for Biden to get reverse coattails in, based on the huge momentum surrounding Dems flipping the State House.

Hell, I'm more interested in the Senate, Congressional & State House races rather than Biden winning TX. If high early turnout with high registration rates are any indication of enthusiasm, we may be in for a TX-sized surprise that I couldn't have predicted just a week ago (Even if Biden comes close but doesn't win here)

EDIT: I wonder if the Texas GOP shot themselves in the foot at the finish line with their week-long war on dropboxes & Harris County, in my mind, signaling to Texas & the nation that it's officially a purple state.

The one "bright spot" if you can say from all of the GOP hackery, is that it signals to the Dem base that they've got to go out and vote. It turbocharges turnout for the opposition when they think the other side is trying to take their vote away.

I wouldn't be surprised if something similar is happening in Georgia. The way the Texas GOP is going about it is foolish, particularly in the midst of news of record-high voter registration
Logged
wbrocks67
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,279
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #606 on: October 16, 2020, 06:38:52 AM »

It should also be noted that Dems only came in with something like $2.8M for Beto in the closing days of 2018. So the fact that they are dumping nearly *$9 million* for Hegar shows they really think they can win. And judging from these early voting #s, I think there is definitely a high chance.
Logged
Pollster
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,143


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #607 on: October 16, 2020, 09:52:35 AM »

It should also be noted that Dems only came in with something like $2.8M for Beto in the closing days of 2018. So the fact that they are dumping nearly *$9 million* for Hegar shows they really think they can win. And judging from these early voting #s, I think there is definitely a high chance.

In fairness, Beto really didn't need any financial help (and keep in mind candidate money goes a lot further than IE money). He also got millions in free media coverage.
Logged
ProgressiveModerate
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,134


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #608 on: October 16, 2020, 09:54:57 AM »

I think the more seats Ds can bring into play the better; more backups incase one of the core 4 fails, and a larger buffer for legislation in the case of a landslide, so you don't risk Manchin switching parties.
Logged
RIP RBG
Astatine
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 447
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #609 on: October 16, 2020, 10:00:08 AM »

I think the more seats Ds can bring into play the better; more backups incase one of the core 4 fails, and a larger buffer for legislation in the case of a landslide, so you don't risk Manchin switching parties.
With Manchin having voted to remove Trump from office and him having voiced opposition to a party switch several times, it really does not seem likely that he'll switch parties. He is probably just gonna retire in 2024.
Logged
ProgressiveModerate
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,134


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #610 on: October 16, 2020, 10:07:42 AM »

I think the more seats Ds can bring into play the better; more backups incase one of the core 4 fails, and a larger buffer for legislation in the case of a landslide, so you don't risk Manchin switching parties.
With Manchin having voted to remove Trump from office and him having voiced opposition to a party switch several times, it really does not seem likely that he'll switch parties. He is probably just gonna retire in 2024.

Yeah, I really think it depends upon if he wants to have a political future in WV or not. I think in reality he's a bit more liberal than he makes himself to be, but WV constrains him. Post WV-2018 senate election, he seems to have had less votes against the Democrats. I feel like if anything, Sinema might be a bigger bottleneck as she seems more willing to stand for her values, even when there's not much political gain, as by the time AZ-Sen will be up  again, AZ will prolly be a bluer state; if anything, she needs to worry about a primary challenger.
Logged
JG
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,065


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #611 on: October 16, 2020, 10:08:23 AM »

I think the more seats Ds can bring into play the better; more backups incase one of the core 4 fails, and a larger buffer for legislation in the case of a landslide, so you don't risk Manchin switching parties.

Why would Manchin switch parties when on the verge of finally becoming chairman of the Energy comittee?
Logged
Arlington County Moderate 4 Trump (Against Bernie)
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,147
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #612 on: October 16, 2020, 10:11:56 AM »
« Edited: October 16, 2020, 05:44:31 PM by Arlington County Moderate 4 Trump (Against Bernie) »

I think the more seats Ds can bring into play the better; more backups incase one of the core 4 fails, and a larger buffer for legislation in the case of a landslide, so you don't risk Manchin switching parties.

Sure, the same way Republicans need a 52R/48D Senate to not risk Toomey switching parties.
Logged
Electoral College Dropout
independentTX
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,471
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: -3.48


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #613 on: October 16, 2020, 10:13:53 PM »

I think the more seats Ds can bring into play the better; more backups incase one of the core 4 fails, and a larger buffer for legislation in the case of a landslide, so you don't risk Manchin switching parties.
With Manchin having voted to remove Trump from office and him having voiced opposition to a party switch several times, it really does not seem likely that he'll switch parties. He is probably just gonna retire in 2024.

Yeah, I really think it depends upon if he wants to have a political future in WV or not. I think in reality he's a bit more liberal than he makes himself to be, but WV constrains him. Post WV-2018 senate election, he seems to have had less votes against the Democrats. I feel like if anything, Sinema might be a bigger bottleneck as she seems more willing to stand for her values, even when there's not much political gain, as by the time AZ-Sen will be up  again, AZ will prolly be a bluer state; if anything, she needs to worry about a primary challenger.

Manchin will be 77 in 2024. Unless his goal is to be carried out of the Senate chamber in a casket like his predecessor, I'm not sure what the point would be. He'd switch parties and be serving probably one more term at the most.

Robert Byrd's Senate was a very different place - he could work across the aisle in a depolarized environment and bring massive amounts of money to his home state. Manchin can't do that. Things just don't work that way anymore.

Better he retire from the Senate in 2024. If he wants to run for governor that year, he can probably eke out a narrow win (nothing's going to get better in WV under Justice and the GOP; he can run against all that) and it will likely be the last hurrah of the West Virginia Democratic Party.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,468
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #614 on: October 16, 2020, 10:29:15 PM »

I think the more seats Ds can bring into play the better; more backups incase one of the core 4 fails, and a larger buffer for legislation in the case of a landslide, so you don't risk Manchin switching parties.

Why would Manchin switch parties when on the verge of finally becoming chairman of the Energy comittee?

i wonder if manchin would run for wv gov in 2024, i wouldnt mind it, he cant win federally again, but hed have a good shot at the governorship
Logged
prag_prog
Newbie
*
Posts: 9
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #615 on: October 16, 2020, 10:59:26 PM »

I think Cornyn will probably run maybe 1-2 points ahead of Trump but I don't see a big blowout. He seems like a generic R candidate. All the polls were mainly showing Cornyn roughly having similar vote share as Trump but Hegar was lagging behind Biden, mainly due to her lack of name recognition...which should improve as we move closer to election. I really wish Hegar received some of that money resist libs donated to McGrath. She really could use that in an expensive media market like Texas
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,900
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #616 on: October 18, 2020, 12:23:54 PM »

...

Logged
sev
SevenEleven
Atlas Politician
Sr. Member
*****
Posts: 2,798


Political Matrix
E: -3.81, S: -8.26

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #617 on: October 18, 2020, 12:37:20 PM »

Polling must be ugly. 🤭
Logged
Torrain
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,703
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #618 on: October 18, 2020, 01:40:57 PM »

...



If Cornyn thinks he has to distance himself from Trump, and claim that he's opposed the border wall for the past four years, then what the heck does his internal polling say about this race?

And what does that suggest about the Presidential race in Texas...
Logged
wbrocks67
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,279
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #619 on: October 18, 2020, 02:08:29 PM »

This all leads me to believe, along with the EV #s, that polling is going to be quite a bit off in TX this year.
Logged
Monstro Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia
Interlocutor
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,502


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #620 on: October 18, 2020, 02:49:58 PM »

If Cornyn thinks he has to distance himself from Trump, and claim that he's opposed the border wall for the past four years, then what the heck does his internal polling say about this race?

And what does that suggest about the Presidential race in Texas...

"I mean, Texas isn't ready yet and Trump's gonna end up winning it no matter what.

But....."
Logged
TrendsareUsuallyReal
TrendsareReal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,693
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #621 on: October 18, 2020, 02:52:10 PM »

So excited to see jaws drop at the first returns we get in Collin County where people were convinced O’Roruke “maxed out” in 2018
Logged
President Pericles
Pericles
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,021



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #622 on: October 18, 2020, 05:12:38 PM »

Cornyn is lying about opposing Trump taking money from the border wall from what the military was supposed to get. He voted against blocking the emergency declaration, and said in February 2019 “I believe border security is part of national security. So I support the efforts to accomplish that secure border, .. The president’s left with a bad hand and has to play the best hand he can.”
Logged
SnowLabrador
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,064
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #623 on: October 18, 2020, 07:26:34 PM »

Cornyn is lying about opposing Trump taking money from the border wall from what the military was supposed to get. He voted against blocking the emergency declaration, and said in February 2019 “I believe border security is part of national security. So I support the efforts to accomplish that secure border, .. The president’s left with a bad hand and has to play the best hand he can.”

What's the point of lying about it and possibly depressing deplorable base turnout, when it's so easily verifiable that he's lying? He's still going to win, but this can't exactly help him.
Logged
wbrocks67
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,279
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #624 on: Today at 05:17:32 AM »

Cornyn is lying about opposing Trump taking money from the border wall from what the military was supposed to get. He voted against blocking the emergency declaration, and said in February 2019 “I believe border security is part of national security. So I support the efforts to accomplish that secure border, .. The president’s left with a bad hand and has to play the best hand he can.”

What's the point of lying about it and possibly depressing deplorable base turnout, when it's so easily verifiable that he's lying? He's still going to win, but this can't exactly help him.

Not sure why people are still so sure of this.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 20 21 22 23 24 [25] 26  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.057 seconds with 11 queries.