Who is more likely to win?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I say Kaine. I'd still be suprised if he does, although very pleasantly surprised.

[Jake]

In all likelyhood, neither will win. Both will be close (2-4%), but I suppose Kaine has a better chance (25%ish) than Forrester (10%ish).

[TheresNoMoney]

Kaine is much more likely.

[Moooooo]

There shouldnt be much of a dispute over this one.  Kaine is more likely to win.  He's at least polled within the MOE and held the lead in a couple polls.  Does it mean he is going to win?  Of course not.

[Blank Slate]

There shouldnt be much of a dispute over this one.  Kaine is more likely to win.  He's at least polled within the MOE and held the lead in a couple polls.  Does it mean he is going to win?  Of course not.

Although it might depend on how favorable the voters near D.C. feel about Governor Warner finally cutting TV commercials for Kaine.

I'd say Kaine definitely has a better chance then Forrester because of the overall feeling in the country right now, politically, with Bush only getting at the most 42% approval ratings (and some as low as 37%) in polls, and people also not that happy with the Repubican majority in Congress.   

[Smash255]

Kaine, virtually all the VA polls are very close (within 2 points or so) some having Kaine ahead.  Corzine has been ahead of Forrester in every single poll.  A few polls were very close, but that has been the exception rather than the rule & most polls have had between a 6-9% Corzine lead

[AuH2O]

Well, Kaine, but a Kilgore win and narrow Corzine win= GOP win. Corzine should coast-- and he might on Election Day-- while Kaine is operating in a pro-Warner environment against a mediocre Republican.

[MasterJedi]

Kaine is more likely although he probably won't win.

[WalterMitty]

id settle for a kaine-forrester win.

corzine is a horrible person.  kaine is too mediocre to f' up the old dominion too badly.

[Keystone Phil]

id settle for a kaine-forrester win.

corzine is a horrible person.  kaine is too mediocre to f' up the old dominion too badly.

I don't like Kaine but if I had to pick, I'd go with a Kaine-Forrester win, too. NJ is a complete mess and Corzine would only make it worse.

[nini2287]

id settle for a kaine-forrester win.

corzine is a horrible person.  kaine is too mediocre to f' up the old dominion too badly.

I don't like Kaine but if I had to pick, I'd go with a Kaine-Forrester win, too. NJ is a complete mess and Corzine would only make it worse.

I dunno if Corzine would make it any worse, but certainly not any better.  Kaine and Forrester are the best two of a very bad lot.

[© tweed]

Kaine.

Forrester seems frozen at a 9 point deficit.  Kaine is frozen at a 2-3% deficit.  Both will lose, but Kaine has probably about a 25% chance of winning while Forrester is at <10%.

[Max Power]

Kaine has a better chance, although both have a reasonable chance. New Jersey will be close, but not as close as people are making it out to be. The same goes with Virginia.

[TheresNoMoney]

Corzine recently put out two very powerful ads, one dealing with Forrester's lies and the other dealing with embryonic stem cell research.

The embryonic stem cell research ad features a former high school wrestler and is very powerful. You can view it here:

http://www.corzineforgovernor.com/video/stemcell.aspx

[AuH2O]

No doubt the ads distort Forrester's position. If a NJ Democrat has told the truth in the last 50 years, it was an accident.

[Keystone Phil]

The embryonic stem cell research ad features a former high school wrestler and is very powerful. You can view it here:

And so far most people think it's disgusting and Forrester himself has said that his views on the issue are distorted.

[Moooooo]

No doubt the ads distort Forrester's position. If a NJ Democrat has told the truth in the last 50 years, it was an accident.

I remember you stating that Kilgores ad's stretched the truth in VA, and I agree the same thing is going on here, but you have to admit...  The stem cell research ad is good, real good.  Now doubt, its emotional and controversial, but the message will resonate with voters.

[TheresNoMoney]

I remember you stating that Kilgores ad's stretched the truth in VA, and I agree the same thing is going on here,

The Corzine ad is truthful. Forrester opposes funding embryonic stem cell research. He has been clear on this.

The Kilgore ad is not truthful. Kaine has said repeatedly he will uphold the death penalty in Virginia.

Big difference between the two. The GOP ad is a false attack, while the Democratic ad is truthful.

[Moooooo]

I remember you stating that Kilgores ad's stretched the truth in VA, and I agree the same thing is going on here,

The Corzine ad is truthful. Forrester opposes funding embryonic stem cell research. He has been clear on this.

The Kilgore ad is not truthful. Kaine has said repeatedly he will uphold the death penalty in Virginia.

Big difference between the two. The GOP ad is a false attack, while the Democratic ad is truthful.

Not entirely.  Forresters daughter, Briana Forrester (19), suffered a near-fatal brain hemorrhage last year.  Forrester has said that "he is watching the new developments in embryonic stem-cell research particularly closely, and with a great deal of hope, because he is the father of a daughter with a brain injury."

[TheresNoMoney]

Forrester has very clearly stated that he opposes funding embryonic stem cell research repeatedly. Thead is 100% truthful.

That's a shame about his daughter, but he should've known better than to pander to the extremist religious right-wingers on this issue. It's not going to help him in New Jersey.

[Keystone Phil]

That's a shame about his daughter, but he should've known better than to pander to the extremist religious right-wingers on this issue. It's not going to help him in New Jersey.

What religious right wingers could he have pandered to? He's not pandering.

[TheresNoMoney]

Forrest is pro-choice, yet he opposes embryonic stem cell research.

He figured he'd pick one issue to pander to the religious right-wingers on. Stem cell research is a very popular issue in New Jersey and could certainly help their economy.

[Keystone Phil]

Forrest is pro-choice, yet he opposes embryonic stem cell research.

He figured he'd pick one issue to pander to the religious right-wingers on. Stem cell research is a very popular issue in New Jersey and could certainly help their economy.

You never answered my question - What religious right wingers would he have pandered to? This is New Jersey, Scoonie, not South Carolina. He's not pandering.

[Alcon]

Kaine is more likely to win, although both are stalled with rather significant defecits.

The Democrats will go into 2006 with one less Governor, chances are.

The embryonic stem cell research ad features a former high school wrestler and is very powerful.

Yeah, it's powerfull alright. Just not in the direction that it's intended to be.

You really think so?  The ad may not be great, but it doesn't seem like backfire material to me.

[Keystone Phil]

The embryonic stem cell research ad features a former high school wrestler and is very powerful.

Yeah, it's powerfull alright. Just not in the direction that it's intended to be.

Yeah, suggesting Forrester "doesn't care" about people like the kid in the ad when he has a daughter who has problems is not exactly the smartest thing. Then again, Camp Corzine is made up of the brightest bulbs.