2020 prediction

[mileslunn]

Way too early to make predictions, but if the midterm results were to play out nationally, Democrats would flip Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  Iowa and Arizona would be nail biters while not enough information say how North Carolina would go.  Ohio would stay GOP, while Florida and Georgia would be narrow GOP wins.  At this point I see the following.

Solid GOP

Alaska
Idaho
Utah
Montana
Wyoming
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska (4 of 5)
Kansas
Oklahoma
Missouri
Arkansas
Louisiana
Indiana
Kentucky
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
West Virginia
South Carolina

Solid Democrat

Washington
Oregon
California
Hawaii
New Mexico
Illinois
Maine (1 of 4)
Vermont
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New York
New Jersey
Maryland
Delaware
DC

Swing see comments beside each

Clinton swing

Nevada - Toss up

Colorado - Lean D, Democrats must win this while Trump can win without winnning here

Minnesota - Toss up

Maine (statewide) - Toss up, slight edge for Democrats

New Hampshire - Toss up

Virginia - Lean D, Democrats must win here, while Trump can win without it.

Trump Swing states

Arizona - Toss up, depends heavily on turnout

Nebraska 2 - Toss up

Texas - Likely R, slight chance of Democrat pick up but only if a wave election similar to 2008.

Iowa - Toss up but slight R lean, can see Democrats winning without Iowa, cannot see GOP winning without it.

Wisconsin - Toss up, of the three Blue Wall states Clinton lost, this is probably the one most likely to stay GOP, but still good chance of flipping.

Michigan - Toss up - Democrats must pick this up to win, GOP can still win without it, but narrows the path.

Ohio - Lean R, An asset for Democrats to win but can without it, GOP must win here as no path for them without Ohio.

Maine 2 - Toss up, slight R lean, but with a high number of on the fence voters could go either way.

Pennsylvania - Toss up - If the Democrats flip any states, this will likely be the first.  GOP can win without Pennsylvania although narrows path, Democrats must win here.

North Carolina - Toss up - Both can win without North Carolina but GOP has a much tougher path without it than Democrats do.

Georgia - Lean R - Democrats don't need to win here, just a bonus whereas GOP must win here to win nationally.

Florida - Toss up - highly likely it votes for the winner.  Both parties have paths without Florida but pretty much have to run the table in all other swing states meaning 90% chance it backs the winner.

[mileslunn]

Trump is not winning Nevada or Colorado.

Nice no objection to Connecticut or Minnesota

Connecticut is not going for Trump.  Minnesota might it depends on the swings.  Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs swinging towards Democrats while rural Minnesota swinging towards GOP so depends which is a bigger swing of the two.

[mileslunn]

Trump is not winning Nevada or Colorado.

Nice no objection to Connecticut or Minnesota

Connecticut is not going for Trump.  Minnesota might it depends on the swings.  Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs swinging towards Democrats while rural Minnesota swinging towards GOP so depends which is a bigger swing of the two.

Connecticut will go to Trump very narrowly off of John Kasich splitting the Democrat vote and a 4% improvement for Trump there.

That assumes Kasich runs as an independent.  4% improvement on Trump seems more like wishful thinking than reality.  It was close at the governor race for the same reason Democrats won Kansas.  If you look at the senate and congressional races not even close and horrible demographics for Trump GOP.  Now if Kasich was GOP leader, agree Connecticut would be winneable.

[mileslunn]

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65 IND

Doubt any independents will win any electoral votes.  Do you mean rather states where it is too close to call?