Which rep Senate seats Dems should focus on in 2018 ?

[augbell]

In the next US Senate election, 22 Republican seats are up, assuming the GOP wins the Mississippi run-off of this year's special election.

Assuming Republicans win Florida recount and a Republican is reelected in the White House, they need  to flip at list 4 seats to get an absolute majority (this implies they keep every dem seat, inluding Doug Jones' one).

Which seats should they focus on ?

[Skunk]

Colorado (mostly because this one would be a pretty easy flip, although shouldn't be taken for granted), Arizona, North Carolina, and Maine.

Although Maine would be easier if Collins retires, if she doesn't maybe Georgia? Or perhaps Montana with Bullock. Could see an argument for Iowa too although given Iowa's rightward trend as of late, I wouldn't get my hopes up.

[augbell]

Colorado (mostly because this one would be a pretty easy flip, although shouldn't be taken for granted), Arizona, North Carolina, and Maine.

Although Maine would be easier if Collins retires, if she doesn't maybe Georgia? Or perhaps Montana with Bullock. Could see an argument for Iowa too although given Iowa's rightward trend as of late, I wouldn't get my hopes up.

I agree with you for Colorado, Iowa and Maine. Trump won Iowa easily and could help the incumbent.

If Dems try hard to get Texas in 2020, maybe Beto or someone else could flip it.

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

Colorado, Maine, Arizona, Iowa in that order. North Carolina, Georgia and Texas next.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McSally will be appointed Senator in 2020. That's why Liberals wanted Govs mansion. CO, ME willl flip, IA, NC, GA, MT are next to go

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

McSally will be appointed Senator in 2020. That's why Liberals wanted Govs mansion. CO, ME willl flip, IA, NC, GA, MT are next to go

Honestly you're finding new ways to not a have a clue and I applaud that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ducey says he was thinking about replacing McSally in AZ after Kyl retires.

[TheBeardedOne]

Ducey says he was thinking about replacing McSally in AZ after Kyl retires.

How would he replace him with her? I thought Kyl was staying until 2020 and thats when the special election was supposed to take place?

[lfromnj]

who is the best candidate for Iowa?
You can't run Vilsack as we know thats just gonna fail once again(shocking)
Scholten did run a strong campaign and he probably should try. Even considering Kings racism he got those hicks to vote for him.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

who is the best candidate for Iowa?
You can't run Vilsack as we know thats just gonna fail once again(shocking)
Scholten did run a strong campaign and he probably should try. Even considering Kings racism he got those hicks to vote for him.

[Roll Roons]

Colorado should easily be the top priority. Dems swept all statewide offices this year and beat Coffman - it'll be seriously embarrassing for them if they can't knock off Gardner. After that, I said Arizona (Kelly or Gallego), North Carolina and Maine. Iowa and Georgia should be secondary targets, and Montana only if Bullock runs.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.vox.com/2018/11/12/18086302/arizona-senate-race-martha-mcsally-kyrsten-sinema

Here is the link that says Kyl can leave before 2020 and give the seat to McSally. Kyl retires in Jan 2019 and Ducey appoints McSally

[America Needs R'hllor]

1. Colorado
2. Arizona
3. North Carolina
4. Maine

5. Georgia
6. Montana (if Bullock runs)
7. Iowa
8. Texas
9. Kansas
10. Alaska

[augbell]

If they follow the sun belt strategy (I think they'll do)

1 Colorado
2 Maine
3 Texas
4 North Carolina

If they follow the rust belt strategy (that I prefer bcuz I'm a leftist)
1 Colorado
2 Maine
3 Montana
4 Iowa

I'd be pretty amazed if Montana elected a dem senator and another dem governor, in a scenario where Bullock is on the ticket and wins Montana. In such a scenario, dems could definitively get the representative, and have every statewide office

[lfromnj]

they need to focus on 5 coz Jones is doomed.

[augbell]

they need to focus on 5 coz Jones is doomed.

[Nutmeg]

2020, yes?

[Xing]

It's early to know for sure, but Colorado is the most obvious target, and other potential targets are Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Maine (especially if Collins retires, but even if she doesn't), Montana (if Bullock runs), and North Carolina.

[augbell]

I do unterstand, given the last gubernatorial election, that three people consider Kansas as a seat that could flip. Yet, if the person who considered that Louisiana could flip could explain why he voted so, or if someone sees reasons and could tell me them, please do.

The only thing that could make it happen to me would be if JBE was on the ticket, but it's not even sure that he'll be reelected next year...

[Storr]

It's early to know for sure, but Colorado is the most obvious target, and other potential targets are Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Maine (especially if Collins retires, but even if she doesn't), Montana (if Bullock runs), and North Carolina.

Add Texas and I agree. There's no way Democrats do not nominate a well funded serious nominee after Beto's performance.

[Peanut]

Colorado, Arizona, Maine, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia, Texas. We've got a really good shot at the Senate, methinks, since we'll probably only lose Jones. Gardner will go down Heller-style, McSally will probably be the one honored to lose both AZ seats (I like her as a person a bit, though, or at least don't hate her.), Maine, Collins may retire and if she doesn't she could lose the primary or the general, I still have hope in Iowa's elasticity, NC's seat is cursed and Tillis is not that strong an incumbent, Georgia might be slowly Virginianizing, and Texas can't be counted out with Beto's amazing performance.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Tier 1
1. Colorado
2. Arizona
3. North Carolina
4. Maine (yes I know it’s Collins but we can’t hold our dicks here. Polarization looks here to stay )

Tier 2
5. Montana only if Bullock runs
6. Georgia
7. Texas
8. Iowa

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

1. Colorado
2. Arizona
3. North Carolina
4. Texas (If Beto runs again)
5. Maine
6. Georgia
7. Montana

[Orser67]

Without making assumptions about who does or doesn't run:

Tier 0:
Colorado

Tier 1:
Arizona
Maine
North Carolina

Tier 2:
Georgia
Iowa

Tier 3:
Alaska
Montana
Texas

[UncleSam]

Colorado is the obvious one and should offset Alabama.

Maine is a decent opportunity for Ds though Collins would be favored, and it won’t be free regardless in a presidential year.

To gain the senate Dems would need at least two others. The possibilities for gains would be North Carolina, Arizona, and Iowa principally. Cornyn won’t be challenged in Texas and Daines would beat Bullock in a senate race anyway. Georgia isn’t going to elect a Dem over Perdue.

So basically Dems need 2/3 of North Carolina, Arizona, and Iowa in my estimation to win the senate. They have a good shot at North Carolina and Arizona, though Iowa is probably a hill too far. Maine is also a sketchy pickup given Collins.

I think Rs hold senate even if Trump is losing in a Romney style manner, basically. And I think that is unlikely in the first place - in a D+7.5 environment Michigan elected Stabenow by 6.5, and Evers by less than 1.5. Trump is the incumbent president and so will be very tough to beat in those states - I think he will be tough to beat in Pennsylvania as well. If Georgia, Texas, or Arizona had a few more years of demographic change I could buy D chances there, but as things stand I honestly think Ds need to win the Rust Belt to have a chance.