The Megathread for All Things Hoosier!

[StateBoiler]

Howey:

Schmuhl elected chair of INDems

“It’s an honor to have the full support of our Indiana Democratic Party’s diverse leadership as we work together on creating a brighter and better future for Indiana and its families. Democrats across our state are ready for a fresh vision supported by strategic planning, long-term investment, grassroots organizing, and a clear message that offers all Hoosiers a better life, regardless of where they live. I’m ready to get to work and I look forward to helping elect great Democrats up and down the ballot as we chart a new course.” - Newly elected Indiana Democratic Chairman Mike Schmuhl on Saturday. Marion County Clerk Myla Eldridge was elected vice chair, Rick Sutton secretary and Henry Fernandez as treasurer. Eldridge said, “I look forward to helping Mike execute our platform so that we can benefit the daily lives of Indiana residents and get more people involved in the democratic process. It’s time to get to work, and I ask all Hoosiers to join us in this effort.” A native of South Bend, Schmuhl has worked on campaigns for former U.S. Sen. Joe Donnelly (2010), State Sen. Shelli Yoder (2016), and businessman Mel Hall (2018). He served as Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s first chief of staff after running his campaign for mayor in 2011. Schmuhl was the elected the 2nd Congressional District Democratic chairman from 2011 to 2013, becoming the youngest member of the state central committee at the time with full voting rights. He managed Buttigieg's $100 million Democratic presidential campaign in 2019-20.

Hakim-Shabazz:

https://indypolitics.org/holcomb-lifts-mask-mandate/

Indiana Governor Eric Holcomb has announced new steps going forward dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic, including making the mask mandate advisory.

In an address, Tuesday night, one year after the Governor announced the state was having to hunker down in order to prevent the spread of COVID-19, Holcomb announced he was easing state restrictions.

While the state public health emergency will stay in place for an additional 30 days allowing the state to respond to emergencies and access federal funds, the mask mandate is becoming advisory on April 6 and venue capacity will be in the hands of local officials.

In addition, the Governor is expanding vaccination clinics.

You can hear the Governor at the link above. It runs for about 23 minutes.

[StateBoiler]

Hupfer unanimously reelected for another term as Indiana Republican Party Chair. The vice chair is the newly appointed Secretary of State Holli Sullivan.

[StateBoiler]

Your first rumored Democratic candidate for Governor 2024: Jennifer McCormick, who was elected as a Republican as Superintendent of Public Instruction in 2016. I expect that wouldn't be a winner come primary time unless like 2020 every single halfway respectable Democrat punts on the job.

Meanwhile, there's been about a dozen or so rumored Republicans. Whatever happens for the GOP, I fully expect a contested primary in 3 years.

Holcomb predictably vetoed the legislation that the General Assembly passed giving them the power to call a special session on the grounds of it is unconstitutional. I'm not sure why the General Assembly did not go the constitutional amendment route, although maybe they didn't have the votes. This veto was 3 or 4 days ago and the General Assembly has said and done nothing about it. There's a thought that they just would not adjourn sine die and leave themselves in session.

[StateBoiler]

Both houses override Holcomb's veto on the legislature calling a special session with no one changing their vote although less people did vote. Lawsuits incoming, will probably be decided by the State Supreme Court.

[StateBoiler]

Holcomb has vetoed a second bill that was not very partisan but was controversial and split Indiana's agricultural groups in two about the marking of E15 fuel on gas pumps.

Holli Sullivan unshockingly has announced she will run for Secretary of State in 2022. However, she then started asking for campaign donations, and due to the legislature not going sine die because they have to do congressional districts later in the year, you're not allowed to do fundraising while still in session, which per the deal worked out to the constitutionally-mandated end of legislature date in budget years of April 29th. So Sullivan asked for donations a week or two before she was allowed to. The Libertarian Party of Indiana called out Sullivan for it and asked the Secretary of State's office (which includes Indiana Election Division) from recusing itself from the investigation of Sullivan's violation of state law. Diego Morales - a Pence administration official - is already running, and there may be one more serious candidate.

Todd Rokita has come out against Holcomb filing suit in the "is it constitutional for the legislature to call a special session?" Rokita says that is a determination of the Attorney General, not the Governor, to allow the state to have a single mind in lawsuits, citing established case law. The Governor's office of course dismisses this interpretation of law, and the Governor is being represented in the case by private counsel, not Rokita. Rokita has designs on running for Governor in 2024 and so there's a case to be made this is a political move. I don't think the legislature's law has much chance of standing up in state Supreme Court, I think they should have the right to call a special session, but the way to go about that would've been constitutional amendment. However, I'm not sure the Governor can even file suit if he's being represented by private counsel, because he's then not filing suit in his office as chief of the executive branch, he's filing as a private citizen. I think Rokita's play here causes Holcomb technical problems.

Todd Young will have a primary challenger per Abdul Hakim-Shabazz as we're about to pass less than 1 year from next year's primary.

[MadmanMotley]

Former president of the Indiana Economic Development Corp. And CEO of Greater Fort Wayne, and current partner in a Venture Capital firm Eric Doden announced he was running for Governor.
https://www.journalgazette.net/news/local/20210507/doden-to-enter-race-for-governor

[StateBoiler]

Former president of the Indiana Economic Development Corp. And CEO of Greater Fort Wayne, and current partner in a Venture Capital firm Eric Doden announced he was running for Governor.
https://www.journalgazette.net/news/local/20210507/doden-to-enter-race-for-governor

As a recently former Fort Wayne resident, I do not expect him to win the primary at all. Can't win a mayoral primary in a place you have a lot of power or when you're not in the race kick out the mayor you don't like, you're not going to win a governor primary.

In other Fort Wayne news, Mayor Tom Henry (D) has made news he might run for a fifth term in 2023, but the first person to announce he is running for the job is current City Councilman Tom Didier (R). Didier defeated Henry for his City Council position back in 2003, and Henry 4 years later ran for Mayor and won.

[StateBoiler]

The Republican Convention next summer looks like it could be fun.

Announced Secretary of State candidates:

-Holli Sullivan (appointed a few months ago to fulfill the rest of the term, Holcomb/establishment choice, embarassed by soliciting campaign donations when it was technically illegal for her to do so because the legislature was still in session)
-Diego Morales (Pence-era administration official in state government, ran in the clown car primary for the 5th Congress district in 2020)
-Wayne "Gunny" Harmon (don't know who this is)

I think there's one more name been thrown out there, a county commissioner, maybe from the Region.

Announced Treasurer candidates:

Dan Elliott (former Morgan County councilman, Morgan County GOP Party Chairman, Morgan is the donut county to Indianapolis's southwest)
Pete Seat (former Deputy Assistant Press Secretary for President George W. Bush, also worked for the Indiana Republican Party as executive director of "strategic communications and talent development", has worked for Holcomb and Dan Coats in the past...only 38 years old)

Auditor: Tera Klutz is eligible to run for another term. All indications are is no one will run against her.

Whether Todd Young gets a challenger that can get 500 Republican signatures in each of the 9 congressional districts is an open question.

Link to a podcast discussing these 2 races (and other matters): https://www.wibc.com/blogs/rob-kendall/republican-infighting-begins/

[StateBoiler]

Former Hammond Mayor McDermott has announced he's interested in running against Todd Young for Senate. McDermott last year lost the Democratic primary for the 1st district narrowly to Frank Mrvan.

[StateBoiler]

High-level discussions of Eric Holcomb and Mike Braun potentially switching jobs come 2024. I wonder what a Braun Senator exit creating an open race for Senate would do. I think some more right-wing politicians would rather run against Holcomb in a primary instead of how many ever candidates the Governor's race would end up being. It's going to filter down of course, but right now a lot of names are out there.

Meanwhile, Todd Rokita has so far managed to lose everything in State Supreme Court he's tried to argue vs. the Holcomb administration.

[StateBoiler]

Bunch of stuff from the latest Cheat Sheet from Abdul Hakim-Shabazz:

-A lot of people have interest in the Governor's race in 2024, including Sen. Braun and Atty. Gen. Rokita. Word is the 2018 primary opponents are working out a deal. Braun apparently is not happy in the Senate. The perceived deal is Rokita will back Braun in the 2024 primary and Braun will back Rokita for reelection to Attorney General in 2024. Not sure I see the upside in this deal for Rokita here, but okay, appears he doesn't think he'll win the primary.

-90% chance Rep. Trey Hollingsworth runs for Governor in 2024. Word is he'll run for reelection to Congress in 2022 first. I don't see this having a high degree chance of success considering he was a carpetbagger to start with.

-Others maybe in the Republican Governor 2024 primary: Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, Fort Wayne businessman Eric Doden who has already officially announced, and former State Sen. Jim Merritt (losing 2019 Mayor of Indianapolis Republican nominee) is considering.

-Even though he supposedly wants out of the job and can't do anything about the city's ongoing major crime problem, Joe Hogsett may run for a 3rd term for Mayor of Indianapolis. Reason is he has nothing else to run for with a high chance at success and he was passed over for a job in the Biden administration early this year that he was aiming to be his golden parachute out. This creates problems for current City Council President Vop Osili that was considering running for mayor in 2023, but probably not against an incumbent creating a contested primary.

-It's not in the Cheat Sheet, but it's been heavily hinted by Rob Kendall in Statehouse Happenings weekly podcasts that his routine guest Hakim-Shabazz is considering running for Mayor. I think it'd be about as good a candidate the Republicans can field to overthrow the apple cart in Indianapolis. Hakim-Shabazz is an attorney that has been a longtime reporter on statehouse news, publishing Indy Politics, and is a black conservative with a sharp wit. Throw on top of it I don't think most people believe Hogsett is doing a good job at present, it's just he's the incumbent from the naturally stronger party in Indianapolis.

-Polling says Holcomb's approval rating is still in the 60s and he has larger approval than the legislature. No surprise.

-Todd Young has an announced opponent for the 2022 Senate Republican primary. Danny Niederberger, who finished 8th I think in the 5th Congressional district crowded primary in 2020, is attempting to get the 4500 signatures needed to get on the ballot. If he actually makes it on the ballot, it'd be a success.

-Hammond Mayor Tom McDermott has officially filed to run for Senate. He lost the 1st Congressional district primary in a tight race in 2020 to Frank Mrvan. Unlike Hogsett he's decided to move on from being Mayor to maybe bigger things.

-Jeff Maurer will be the Libertarian candidate for Secretary of State in 2022. I was working with him a bit earlier this year on a Libertarian Party version of redistricting reform that he was spearheading since the Common Cause/League of Women Voters, etc. version wanted nothing to deal with us.

[StateBoiler]

Some items from an Importantville piece about the big get-togethers the Democrats and Republicans recently had.

https://importantville.substack.com/p/inside-hoosier-republicans-and-democrats

-Everyone at the French Lick confab happy about McDermott stepping into the Senate race.
-Ditto Mike Schmuhl running the state Democratic Party.

Hogsett had more to say about politics. And his remarks underscore another takeaway from the event: For the first time in a long time, Hoosier Democrats seem more comfortable leaning into their brand—a brand that distinguishes from the national party. Speaking at the Orange County Democratic dinner at the American Legion Friday evening, Hogsett asked for a show of hands in the room: Who wants to defund the police? No one raised his or her hand.

Indiana Republican Party Chairman Kyle Hupfer introduced Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch. Come 2024, the two could find themselves in a primary against each other, but Hupfer gave her an enthusiastic welcome. Hupfer remarked that Holcomb and Crouch were like Jordan and Pippen.

Hupfer also said something else: Holcomb, he said, doesn't pick fights, doesn't run to do hits on Fox News. He just does his job.

The remarks struck at least one person as a shot across the bow at Rokita, who was in the room, and who has both picked fights and appeared on Fox News, challenging Holcomb in court over his coronavirus restrictions.

Unless the party establishment political machine are solidly gung-ho on-board with her and fund her massively, I'm not sure this plays out well for Crouch running for Governor. She has little name value.

If the biggest question Indiana Democrats face is how—how will they rebuild ahead of 2022 and 2024?, the biggest question for Indiana Republicans is who—who does Holcomb want to carry on his legacy beyond 2024? Who does the grassroots want?

[StateBoiler]

Howey:

House and Senate Republicans laid out the redistricting schedule on Monday, with proposed congressional and General Assembly House maps to be posted online Sept. 14 at iga.in.gov. House Committee on Elections and Apportionment Chairman Tim Wesco (R-Osceola), is expected to host a public meeting of the committee to gather feedback from the public on the initial drafts of the U.S. House of Representatives and Indiana House of Representatives maps Sept. 16 in the House Chamber of the Statehouse in Indianapolis.  The committee is expected to meet again at 10 a.m. on Sept. 20 for an amend-and-vote-only meeting.

[StateBoiler]

All Niki Kelly Twitter, statehouse reporter for the Fort Wayne Journal Gazette:

Just met with House Republican leaders - Huston, Steuerwald and Wesco. Some details on the maps:

Six districts with multiple GOP House members. None with a Dem and a Republican. No Dems in same district. Nisly/Snow Brown/Baird Cook/Huston Davisson/Lucas Eberhart/Young Gutwein/Lehe

I'd read John Jacob was drawn with a Democrat. Jacob had been kicked out of caucus. Lucas above was also kicked out of caucus and had endorsed Rainwater in the Governor's race. The Nisly has always been a thorn in Republicans' side and had sponsored an amendment that effectively killed a Republican attempt to remove Libertarian candidates from the Governor and Senate races.

The Brown drawn with the Baird (Congressman's son) is the Chair of the Ways and Means Committee and has announced he is retiring, which has large implications for what is an important Committee chair position.

Six open seats under proposed maps: 25 32 41 57 73 82

Then this guy Nick Roberts on Twitter crunched all 100 districts:

The six previously GOP represented seats which are now open: 25: (Zionsville+Brownsburg) Trump+5 32: (Carmel + Fishers) Biden+7(!!!) 41: (Frankfort) Trump+40 57: (Plainfield) Trump+30 73: (Greensburg) Trump+49 82: (Fort Wayne) Biden+18(!!!)

2018 Senate: Braun won 65, Donnelly 35.
2020 Governor: Holcomb won 82, Myers won 18
2020 Attorney General: Rokita won 71, Weinzapfel won 29 (matches current partisan breakdown of the House)
2020 President: Trump won 70, Biden won 30

[StateBoiler]

The State Rep. Davisson (R-Salem) that got drawn into a common district with Lucas died Sunday of cancer. So whoever wins the caucus to serve the 2022 General Assembly Session will be thrown into a wilder than normal primary.

[Utah Neolib]

The State Rep. Davisson (R-Salem) that got drawn into a common district with Lucas died Sunday of cancer. So whoever wins the caucus to serve the 2022 General Assembly Session will be thrown into a wilder than normal primary.

Tragic

[StateBoiler]

Cheat Sheet:

Melanie Wright (former State House Rep) has announced she'll run against Victoria Spartz in the new 5th District. Wright lost reelection last year in her State House district by 8 points.

The State Rep. Davisson (R-Salem) that got drawn into a common district with Lucas died Sunday of cancer. So whoever wins the caucus to serve the 2022 General Assembly Session will be thrown into a wilder than normal primary.

Davisson's son likely to run in the caucus to succeed him and run against Lucas.

[StateBoiler]

Didn't expect this. Marion County judge ruled and sided with the legislature on their ability to call a special session when future emergencies happen via the Legislative Council from an enrolled act of the 2021 session. Holcomb was against this and said the Indiana State Constitution only allowed the governor to call a special session and had his veto of the act overridden.

I feel as far as being a good policy to have, the legislature should be able to call themselves in for a special session if an emergency warrants it, just felt they should have taken the constitutional amendment route to do so. That they didn't go that route has led to criticism from some quarters that the Republican legislative leadership were fine with Holcomb's executive orders, but to make it look like they were not, chose a legislative strategy they knew would fail.

Read the ruling here: https://www.slideshare.net/AbdulHakimShabazz/marion-county-judge-rules-in-favor-of-lawmakers

Judge destroys every procedural argument Rokita made on behalf of the legislature, but then scroll to page 20. Says that the legislature has control over its sessions and that an amendment to the state constitution from 1984 removed the schedule and April 30 adjournment requirement, thereby meaning the legislature is in full control of when it can go sine die.

With this last limitation removed, the General Assembly now has complete authority to set the rules governing the timing of its sessions. It may extend its session indefinitely, or enact measures such as HEA 1123, giving it the ability to commence a session limited to a specified agenda when the legislative council adopts a resolution meeting HEA 1123's narrowly defined circumstances. In short, as the Governor effectively confirmed when he signed HEA 1372 (permitting the 2021 legislative session to continue until the day before the next session begins), nothing in the Indiana Constitution guarantees a legislative interregnum during which the Governor has exclusive power to decide whether the legislature should be in session.

Imagine Holcomb appeals. But based on the ruling, if that sitting of the legislature chooses to want to be a full-time legislature, they can. Also, how ironic that the census getting completed late worked against Holcomb in deciding this case.

[StateBoiler]

Former Senator Joe Donnelly - co-holds last statewide win for Democrats in the state from 2012 - announced Friday as Biden's nomination for Ambassador to the Vatican.

There's some ambassadorships I've always wondered why they don't conjoin them together as a money-saving exercise. Italy and the Vatican is an easy one to see.

[NewYorkExpress]

StateBoiler, if Mike Braun does indeed go for Governor in 2024, what are the odds that Pete Buttigeig leaves the Administration to run for the Senate?

He'd almost certainly be the strongest possible Democrat to run in my opinion.

[libertpaulian]

StateBoiler, if Mike Braun does indeed go for Governor in 2024, what are the odds that Pete Buttigeig leaves the Administration to run for the Senate?

He'd almost certainly be the strongest possible Democrat to run in my opinion.

He'd lose by Donnelly's 2018 margin, but only if Biden is winning nationwide by a Reagan 1984 margin.

[StateBoiler]

StateBoiler, if Mike Braun does indeed go for Governor in 2024, what are the odds that Pete Buttigeig leaves the Administration to run for the Senate?

He'd almost certainly be the strongest possible Democrat to run in my opinion.

The other half of "if Braun runs for Governor in 2024" is "Holcomb may run for Senate in 2024". While there are some conservatives that'd relish running against Holcomb in a primary, the "establishment" have done a good job post-Richard Mourdock of defeating that wing of the party. But if Holcomb does end up the Senate nominee, the more right-leaning Democrats in the state have been pretty happy with how he's run things - his approval ratings right now is in the 60s - as well as Buttigieg tends to piss off certain elements of the Democratic Party.

If Donnelly lost to Braun in 2018 51-45, maybe Buttigieg does a point or so better. But Buttigieg has zero interest in Indiana politics and I don't see him jumping into a race where at the start he's an underdog.

[StateBoiler]

Former State Superintendent of Education Jennifer McCormick not ruling out a run for Governor in 2024, as a Democrat.

Rep. Trey Hollingsworth's future is up in the air. It's not known whether he may run again for Congress or may run in Greg Pence's district after being drawn into it.

We hear that if (when) Todd Rokita announces he is running for Governor, he has selected State Senator Erin Houchin to be his running mate for Lt. Governor.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Idk why anyone still thinks Buttigieg is going to come back to Indiana and run for office. He clearly still wants to be president, and a failed run for one of the least powerful governorships in America (Republicans would control the state house and can override the governor's veto with a simple majority) would do nothing for his resume.

[StateBoiler]

Now FIVE people running to be Republican nominee for State Treasurer. Elise Nieshalla, Boone County Council President from Zionsville, has gotten in the fray. Going to be a fun convention.

I've done some playing around with numbers from the 2020 Governor's race. So here's the statewide results: Holcomb 56.5%, Myers 32.1%, Rainwater 11.4%

Here's the counties where each candidate's share of vote was higher or lower:

Candidate 1 - Holcomb: 83 higher, 9 lower
Candidate 2 - Myers: 12 higher, 80 lower
Candidate 3 - Rainwater: 65 higher, 27 lower

Then here's the counties based on which candidate had the share of vote higher in that county than they did statewide (numbers corresponding to candidate number above)

1 Counties (Holcomb higher, Myers and Rainwater lower): 15 (Allen, Hamilton, Elkhart, a lot of southern Indiana counties)
12 Counties (Holcomb and Myers higher, Rainwater lower): 4 (Floyd, Vanderburgh, Clark, Vigo - more populated southern Indiana counties with Evansville, Terre Haute, and Jeffersonville)
13 Counties (Holcomb and Rainwater higher, Myers lower): 64
2 Counties (Myers higher, Holcomb and Rainwater lower): 8 (Monroe, Marion, Lake, St. Joseph, Porter, LaPorte, Tippecanoe, Delaware - so Bloomington, Indianapolis, the Region, Lafayette, and Muncie)
3 Counties (Rainwater higher, Holcomb and Myers lower): 1 (Brown County - a scenic rural county to the east of Bloomington)

Counties that most closely matched the statewide result taking the absolute value of the difference in percentage of vote of all 3 candidates from that county to the statewide result and adding up:

1. Delaware (Muncie) - 1.12% (this is almost exactly spot-on: Holcomb 0.55% lower, Myers 0.56% higher, Rainwater 0.01% lower)
2. Allen (Fort Wayne) - 3.92%
3. Vigo (Terre Haute) - 7.10%
4. Hamilton (Carmel, suburban Indy) - 8.64%
5. Madison (Anderson) - 9.08%
6. Tippecanoe (Lafayette, Purdue Univ) - 9.42%

Counties that least matched:

1. Monroe (Bloomington, Indiana Univ) - 41.58%
2. Marion (Indianapolis) - 40.01%
3. Lake (Gary, Hammond, East Chicago, etc.) - 39.34%
4. Decatur - 38.62%
5. Daviess - 38.29%