The Megathread for All Things Hoosier!
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #275 on: November 03, 2020, 06:34:09 PM »

Rainwater currently getting 10% or so from the early rurals.
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #276 on: November 03, 2020, 06:56:39 PM »

These numbers all courtesy of the Fort Wayne CBS affiliate as of me posting. The president it says 0% reporting but a couple of the Congress districts it says 4 to 5%. Go figure.

Trump 56, Biden 42, Jorgensen 2
Holcomb 64, Myers 25, Rainwater 11
Rokita 65, Weinzapfel 35
Banks 67, Coldiron 33 (3rd Congress District)
Walorski 73, Hackett 27 - 5% reporting (2nd Congress District)
Spartz 53, Hale 45, Tucker 3 (5th Congress District)

edit: for Governor it says 7% reporting.
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MadmanMotley
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« Reply #277 on: November 03, 2020, 07:00:35 PM »

Anyone else's NYT results show 0 votes for Myers in most places?
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #278 on: November 03, 2020, 07:05:57 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2020, 07:10:51 PM by StateBoiler »

AP has called the Governor's race for Holcomb.

Allen County (Fort Wayne and surrounding area) Early Voters Only Results

Trump 56.0, Biden 42.0, Jorgensen 1.8, Write-in 0.3
Holcomb 59.9, Myers 31.6, Rainwater 8.6
Rokita 59.3, Weinzapfel 40.7
Banks 60.4, Coldiron 39.6 (3rd Congress District)
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #279 on: November 03, 2020, 07:26:01 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2020, 07:35:10 PM by StateBoiler »

Holcomb 63-25-12 with 14% in. Rokita still up 65-35 (~126k votes) with 14% in.

The state election results site is still reporting zero.

In my current county of Whitley, with 27 of 34 precincts reporting, Rainwater leads Myers for 2nd by a margin of 2734 to 2562 (17.6% to 16.5%).

Straight ticket voting in Whitley as of these results, or Zombie Voters: Holcomb 4835, Myers 930, Rainwater 14
People that actually picked their governor choice: Holcomb 5402, Rainwater 2720, Myers 1632
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #280 on: November 03, 2020, 08:55:58 PM »

Rainwater finished 2nd over Myers in Whitley County, 18.3% to 15.7%, so there's at least 1.
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #281 on: November 03, 2020, 09:16:54 PM »

Spartz up about 2000 votes on Hale in the 5th with 57% reporting I think.
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #282 on: November 03, 2020, 09:53:28 PM »

Holcomb acceptance speech. Mentions Myers and gracious to what he added to the conversation. No mention of Rainwater. To be presumed I guess.

Unless there's a bunch of votes from heavily Democrat Marion out there, Spartz is up 51-45 on Hale.
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #283 on: November 03, 2020, 11:13:58 PM »

Current results pulled from the AP:

Trump 60.1%, Biden 37.9%, Jorgensen 2.0%
Holcomb 58.3%, Myers 29.0%, Rainwater 12.7%
Rokita 61.5%, Weinzapfel 38.5%

I expected Rokita to win, but I thought Weinzapfel would do a lot stronger than he did.

Gliding over rural counties, several Rainwater finished ahead of Myers. Myers looks to have won Lake, Tippecanoe narrowly, Marion, and Vanderburgh. Monroe no reported votes yet. Holcomb did win St. Joseph. Marion is Myers 51-39-11. Lake is 51-45-4. Hamilton is Holcomb 61-29-10. Allen is 59-30-11.
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #284 on: November 04, 2020, 01:40:21 AM »

My rough count is Rainwater ahead of Myers in about 30 counties for 2nd.

Trump 58.8, Biden 39.3, Jorgensen 2.0
Holcomb 57.6, Myers 30.0, Rainwater 12.4
Rokita 60.3, Weinzapfel 39.8

So if you extrapolate Biden voters to Holcomb, Trump voters to Rainwater, Holcomb got about 25% of Biden voters and Rainwater got about 17% of Trump voters.
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #285 on: November 04, 2020, 07:54:27 AM »

Howey's rough takes:

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HPI DAILY ANALYSIS: Several thoughts this morning that will be expanded in Thursday's weekly HPI: 1. Mr. President, American elections end with all the ballots counted. 2. Woody Myers was a disastrous gubernatorial nominee. 3. The entire Indiana Democratic Central Committee should resign. The Democratic Party is no longer a credible, major party in this state. 4. American polling is unreliable. It is in a state of crisis. - Brian A. Howey

The GOP are actually going to net flip some state legislature seats.
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #286 on: November 05, 2020, 01:19:14 PM »

John Gregg recorded a segment with Abdul Hakim Shabazz election night. After they discussed the presidency, get into state stuff. Greatly disappointed, thinks a lot of Holcomb, not Rainwater.
He's like some of us and wonders why Zody was not replaced as State Chair following losing a primary earlier this year 82-18.

http://indypolitics.org/the-2020-election/

Howey Politics out today as well: https://howeypolitics.com
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #287 on: November 06, 2020, 06:56:45 PM »

Indiana swung slightly Biden, but very unhappy with the NW Indiana margins.

Do we have final seat changes for the state legislature? And did we have any notable municipal/county election results? I am GDPR-ed out of most local new, but looks like Chris Chyung sadly lost in a rematch
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #288 on: November 07, 2020, 04:02:33 PM »
« Edited: November 07, 2020, 04:05:56 PM by StateBoiler »

Indiana swung slightly Biden, but very unhappy with the NW Indiana margins.

Do we have final seat changes for the state legislature? And did we have any notable municipal/county election results? I am GDPR-ed out of most local new, but looks like Chris Chyung sadly lost in a rematch

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@WIBC_EricBerman

Marion County has finished counting votes from Tuesday's election, and will certify the results next week after reviewing provisional ballots. @MitchForRep's final margin in unseating Rep. @CindyKirchhofer (R-Indianapolis) is 720 votes (51-49).

Gore was the only Democratic House challenger to win; Republicans defeated Reps. Chris Chyung, Lisa Beck, Terry Goodin, Ross Deal and Melanie Wright to put their majority at 71-29.

The Goodin loss means every truly rural district in the state is now held by Republicans.

Going through the rest of Eric Berman's Twitter, Zody has said he will not seek a 3rd term running state Democrats. One guy appearing to be considering it is Buttigieg's national delegate director.

Boss Hog of Liberty election wrapup episode: https://bosshog.fireside.fm/199

Quote
Election recap episode! Our guest is Brad Brewer who has been following the Presidential saga with great interest. We have a full review of the local candidate races, following up on all of our 2020 guests, including Don Rainwater who received nearly a half million votes and 14.5 % of all votes cast in Indiana’s Governor’s race, in the face of straight ticket voting.

Finally, we look forward to the population shift for the 2022 and 2024 elections. We get new electoral and congressional maps. Huge changes coming for the next cycle. Buckle up!
Our program is community supported on Patreon. Do your part by chipping into the cause by donating monthly at any level at www.patreon.com/bosshogofliberty and receive even more BONUS coverage and content.

Rainwater announced yesterday to tell everyone to hang on to their yard signs, because he's asked his Lieutenant Governor nominee if he wants to stay on, he said yes, and he plans to run for Governor for the Libertarians in 2024.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #289 on: November 07, 2020, 10:49:13 PM »

Indiana swung slightly Biden, but very unhappy with the NW Indiana margins.

Do we have final seat changes for the state legislature? And did we have any notable municipal/county election results? I am GDPR-ed out of most local new, but looks like Chris Chyung sadly lost in a rematch

There still seems to be a few votes in Lake right ?

Anyway this makes the GOP cracking it much more likely .
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #290 on: November 08, 2020, 11:06:34 AM »
« Edited: November 08, 2020, 05:38:41 PM by StateBoiler »

Indiana Issues' election recap with 1 representative from each party.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=emb_title&time_continue=1875&v=dlb6Axv5LWM

It's mentioned at end of show rumors that Andre Carson and Joe Hogsett might be getting jobs in D.C.

INFocus from Indianapolis' Fox 59 affiliate with Sen. Todd Young. https://fox59.com/your-local-election-headquarters/in-focus-indiana-elected-officials-pundits-recap-contentious-2020-election/
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Eric Berman

@WIBC_EricBerman Nov 6

@INSenDems change leaders, electing @Sen_GregTaylor to replace @TimLanane as minority leader. Taylor is the first African-American to lead any of the four #INLegis caucuses.

Senate Democrats gained 1 seat in Indy suburbs.
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
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« Reply #291 on: November 09, 2020, 02:54:06 PM »

Zody is gone!
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #292 on: November 10, 2020, 07:55:03 AM »

Open seat and all that, but Leyva in the 1st district is above 40%. This is the strongest performance I can see for as far back as I can go into 1st district history. Considering if the Republicans thought they had a chance here, Leyva would not be the candidate, it sure makes redistricting for the 1st very interesting. The territory has to get larger, so does the legislature take it to South Bend to keep it Democrat-heavy or take it down south, making it more Republican?

I feel nationally a lot of mapmakers are going to be bewildered if they want to protect their party's seats due to the huge massive turnout and how areas will vote when there's no Trump around.
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #293 on: November 13, 2020, 10:38:13 AM »
« Edited: November 13, 2020, 11:07:58 AM by StateBoiler »

Citing "informed and reliable Statehouse sources", Howey says Jim Lucas and John Jacobs will be kicked out of the State House Republican caucus. Lucas endorsed Rainwater, so expected, and Jacobs upset the sitting legislator in the primary and has made anti-Islamic, anti-Catholic comments. There might be a third. They have a 42-vote majority, so can afford to jettison 3.

Organization Day is next Tuesday. Here's how the 2 parties have voted:

Speaker Todd Huston (Fishers)
Majority Caucus Chair Greg Steuerwald (Avon)
Majority Floor Leader Matt Lehman (Berne)

Minority Caucus Leader Phil GiaQuinta (Fort Wayne)
Minority Floor Leader Cherrish Pryor (Indianapolis)
Minority Caucus Chair Terri Austin (Anderson)

State Senate Democrats did a complete reshuffle after their numbers went from 10 to 11. Tim Lanane (Anderson) lost his bid to stay Minority Floor Leader to Greg Taylor (Indianapolis). Lanane had been in the job 8 years.

New leadership:

Assistant Minority Floor Leader Eddie Melton (Gary) who made a brief attempt to go for Governor but did not run.
Caucus Chair J.D. Ford (Indianapolis) - famous for beating Mike Delph
Minority Whip Lonnie Randolph (East Chicago) - stays in the same job
Assistant Caucus Chair Shelli Yoder (Bloomington) - freshman as the old State Senator retired, she defeated John Zody in the primary

Old leadership:

Assistant Minority Leader Jean Breaux (Indianapolis)
Caucus Chair Karen Tallian (Portage) - she lost the Convention vote for Attorney General to Weinzapfel
Assistant Caucus Chair Frank Mrvan (Hammond) - got elected to Congress

Republican Majority in the Senate:

Senate President Pro Tempore Rodric Bray (Martinsville)
Majority Floor Leader Mark Messmer (Jasper)
Majority Caucus Chair Travis Holdman (Markle) - replaces Jim Merritt who retired from the Senate, I think he lost to Bray for Senate leadership following David Long's retirement

Biden's new Chief of Staff will be Ron Klain, a native of Indianapolis.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #294 on: November 15, 2020, 10:44:58 PM »

Interesting tidbit about the presidential race:

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StateBoiler
fe234
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« Reply #295 on: November 16, 2020, 07:50:27 PM »

So I've subscribed to Abdul Hakim-Shabazz's Cheat Sheet.

I guess Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett is trying to get a job in the Biden administration, just in time for the state to take control of some city functions they're none too pleased with, but Hogsett could leave the problems then for his replacement.
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
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« Reply #296 on: November 16, 2020, 08:29:33 PM »

Interesting tidbit about the presidential race:



Don't have time to make an official map right now, but what's interesting to me is how evenly distributed Biden's win in Carmel was compared to recent Dem performances. In 2018 you saw support for Braun and Donnelly break down along predictable east-west lines; ditto for the 2019 municipal races. That pattern definitely still persists in some places, notably in the conservative Catholic areas of northwest Carmel and the wealthy neighborhoods along Spring Mill Road; but overall Biden did very well, flipping precincts Braun won in central and east Carmel (a traditional Republican stronghold) while maintaining the Dem advantage west of Ditch Road we've seen in recent elections. Notably very few precincts went for either candidate by >60%. Bottom line, Biden didn't just win Carmel by running up the margins in left-leaning areas; he won the city. Republican victories in downballot races, most notably in IN-39, which is made up almost entirely of the city of Carmel and will send Jerry Torr back to the State House with a reduced but still substantial majority, prove there is still much work to be done; but Democrats have every right to be encouraged by this result.
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #297 on: November 18, 2020, 03:34:25 PM »

I posted it in the presidential results section, but look at Lake County presidential results.

Democratic Party state chair. Josh Owens and Karlee Macer who both "ran" for governor for the Democrats this year but never actually filed to run have declared interest in running the state party. But the biggest heavyweight is John Gregg who has also stated interest per Howey.
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Canis
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« Reply #298 on: November 18, 2020, 04:33:24 PM »

I wonder who more Rainwater voters voted for President Trump or Biden it seems like Rainwaters anti lockdown stance would pull more Trump voters but Rainwater did decently in democratic areas too their were also a significant amount of Biden-Holcomb Voters too. Lots of ticket-splitting here
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #299 on: November 19, 2020, 03:59:41 PM »
« Edited: November 19, 2020, 04:06:49 PM by StateBoiler »

I wonder who more Rainwater voters voted for President Trump or Biden it seems like Rainwaters anti lockdown stance would pull more Trump voters but Rainwater did decently in democratic areas too their were also a significant amount of Biden-Holcomb Voters too. Lots of ticket-splitting here

There's sizable numbers of Biden-Holcomb voters and Trump-Rainwater voters. I don't think there were terribly many Biden-Rainwater voters.

I think the Attorney General's race is your start off point to understand this electorate.

President: Trump 57.1, Biden 40.9, Jorgensen 2.0
Governor: Holcomb 56.6, Myers 32.0, Rainwater 11.5
Attorney General: Rokita 58.4, Weinzapfel 41.6

I don't see any Myers voters in appreciable numbers not voting for Weinzapfel or Biden. Myers unless the Democratic Party suffers an even further collapse in this state in the future is going to be their floor vote for a very long time.

With the AG race not having a Libertarian, you can say Jorgensen took from the main parties 1.3 from Trump, 0.7 from Biden. I do see the possibility of Republican voters that abhorred Trump voting Republican downballot voting for Biden or Jorgensen if they couldn't bring themselves to vote Democrat, and since Trump was winning Indiana regardless, a protest vote was cheap. But every Biden/Rokita voter you're saying there's a Trump/Weinzapfel voter to cancel it out.

Governor gets really fun. The simple take not looking at details is Rainwater took almost entirely from Myers with 0.5% from Trump. But based on Republicans that were upset with Holcomb pre-election and some Democrats that were happy with Holcomb's actions running the state, it looks like 9.5% of the electorate were Trump/Rainwater voters and 8.9% of the electorate were Biden/Holcomb voters.  

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