The Megathread for All Things Hoosier!

[StateBoiler]

Per Howey:

-Attorney General race has eclipsed the governorship in fundraising. Democrats and unions have turned down giving money to Myers, but have given to Weinzapfel.
-Rokita endorsed by the State Police Alliance.
-Howey repeats his "Rainwater at 24% is bullsh**t" point, but says the "Republicans for Rainwater" group on Facebook has 8200 members.

This group is for Hoosier Republicans to engage and coordinate to elect Donald Rainwater as Governor of Indiana. We know that RINO Eric Holcomb needs to go! He has proven over and over again that he is not a Conservative, and he certainly doesn’t care about the Constitution! Republicans have resisted voting for a Libertarian due to a fear of “splitting the vote.” Not this year! Republicans UNITE to vote in a real conservative – Donald Rainwater! This November, let’s make sure that The Donald stays in the White House and another Donald takes up the Indiana Gubernatorial Seat!!! RINO REMOVER REPUBLICANS VOTE RAINWATER!

[LabourJersey]

Would I be right in assuming that Holcomb is going to win, but in an embarrassingly narrow fashion?

It seems the hard right Hoosiers hate him, but at the same time there just aren't enough Democrats in the state for Woody Myers to actually eek out a win.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Wow! Obviously these numbers are ridiculous, but at least the debate will be exciting. (Also kind-of hilarious that even with 1/3 of Trump voters going to Rainwater, Woody "Who?" Myers still can't manage to lead Holcomb in a poll.)

[StateBoiler]

Would I be right in assuming that Holcomb is going to win, but in an embarrassingly narrow fashion?

It seems the hard right Hoosiers hate him, but at the same time there just aren't enough Democrats in the state for Woody Myers to actually eek out a win.

The Democratic floor vote in their worst constitutional officer elections the past decade has been reliably 37%. That's the minimum percentage of the vote no-hoper statewide Democrat gets. It seems Holcomb is getting some support from Biden voters but he's absolutely pissed off some Republicans as well (Covid-19 response combined with being anti-Curtis Hill, each of which probably endear him to a segment of Biden voters). Those Republicans aren't going to vote for Myers, so either a no vote in the Governor's race or Rainwater as the only alternative. Myers will definitely underperform Biden. In 2016, the presidential race was Trump 56.5, Clinton 37.5, Johnson 4.9. So if the presidential race goes say 55-41-4, something like:

Holcomb 51
Myers 38
Rainwater 11

Seems reasonable. Myers' support is so low that even a Republican electorate splitting can't help him much. Rainwater would need to get in mid-20s drawing from Republican supporters for Myers to have a shot. (Ironically, what the Change Research poll said.) For comparison, past election results. 2016:

Holcomb-Rep 51.4
Gregg-Dem 45.4
Bell-Libt 3.2

2012:

Pence-Rep 49.5
Gregg-Dem 46.6
Bohenham-Libt 4.0

2008:

Daniels-Rep 57.8
Thompson-Dem 40.1
Horning-Libt 2.1

[jamestroll]

Per Howey:

-Attorney General race has eclipsed the governorship in fundraising. Democrats and unions have turned down giving money to Myers, but have given to Weinzapfel.
-Rokita endorsed by the State Police Alliance.
-Howey repeats his "Rainwater at 24% is bullsh**t" point, but says the "Republicans for Rainwater" group on Facebook has 8200 members.

This group is for Hoosier Republicans to engage and coordinate to elect Donald Rainwater as Governor of Indiana. We know that RINO Eric Holcomb needs to go! He has proven over and over again that he is not a Conservative, and he certainly doesn’t care about the Constitution! Republicans have resisted voting for a Libertarian due to a fear of “splitting the vote.” Not this year! Republicans UNITE to vote in a real conservative – Donald Rainwater! This November, let’s make sure that The Donald stays in the White House and another Donald takes up the Indiana Gubernatorial Seat!!! RINO REMOVER REPUBLICANS VOTE RAINWATER!

Do you think Attorney General is still winnable for Democrats?

The amount of backlash towards Holcomb over a mask mandate is absolutely disgusting and disgraceful. They are acting like he locked down the state or something.

[StateBoiler]

Per Howey:

-Attorney General race has eclipsed the governorship in fundraising. Democrats and unions have turned down giving money to Myers, but have given to Weinzapfel.
-Rokita endorsed by the State Police Alliance.
-Howey repeats his "Rainwater at 24% is bullsh**t" point, but says the "Republicans for Rainwater" group on Facebook has 8200 members.

This group is for Hoosier Republicans to engage and coordinate to elect Donald Rainwater as Governor of Indiana. We know that RINO Eric Holcomb needs to go! He has proven over and over again that he is not a Conservative, and he certainly doesn’t care about the Constitution! Republicans have resisted voting for a Libertarian due to a fear of “splitting the vote.” Not this year! Republicans UNITE to vote in a real conservative – Donald Rainwater! This November, let’s make sure that The Donald stays in the White House and another Donald takes up the Indiana Gubernatorial Seat!!! RINO REMOVER REPUBLICANS VOTE RAINWATER!

Do you think Attorney General is still winnable for Democrats?

No.

The amount of backlash towards Holcomb over a mask mandate is absolutely disgusting and disgraceful. They are acting like he locked down the state or something.

I think Curtis Hill has a lot to deal with this. Holcomb and State Party Chairman Kyle Hupfer have clashed a bit with social conservatives. There was the 2018 platform change they tried to sneak through and was overturned at the State GOP Convention, Hill was tried to be forced out by all Republican Party brass and Hill fought it the whole way backed by that wing's bigshots in the state. Hill originally was being talked about maybe running against Holcomb in 2020 primary. His sexual harassment charges combined with the huge war chest Holcomb built up that I think was more geared toward (in a Hillary 2016 fashion) getting rid of any serious primary challengers as opposed to fighting the Democrat nominee, whoever it turned out to be. In the end, Holcomb has won, and Hill was narrowly defeated at the GOP Convention which ends his political career, but all those people are still pissed off at Holcomb (and Hupfer).

Covid is just icing on the top. The one thing that pissed people off was Holcomb mandated masks statewide, and everyone in turn asked the Attorney General, Curtis Hill, "is this constitutional?" Hill replied "no, for it to be constitutional, the legislature has to make this law, and they have not done so, the Governor does not have the unilateral power to do this". This led to a ton of County Sheriff's offices in the state to put out these statements that I'm sure annoyed them of:

"Per the Attorney General, the Governor's mask mandate is not constitutional."
"Don't call us if you see a person not wearing a mask."
"If you have any questions about this, call the Governor's office, not us."
"Businesses are allowed to require you to wear masks to enter."
"We will respond to disturbances at businesses over this policy."

[StateBoiler]

https://howeypolitics.com/Files/HPI2009024-41b6c64c593c49f4875f9e926e172ed3.pdf

Why ‘Gov. Rainwater’ is an election fantasy

By BRIAN A. HOWEY

INDIANAPOLIS – Sooooo, should we be preparing for “Gov. Donald Rainwater”?

Social media was in high drama spin about the social conservative revolt against Gov. Eric Holcomb’s mask mandate. It’s come after the Indy-Politics poll (conducted online) that had Libertarian nominee Rainwater with 24% of the vote.

If you believe that Holcomb is on thin ice, I’ll give you a free ticket to the P.T. Barnum Museum where you can choose a kindred spirit by purchasing a chunk of hard candy on a stick.

There is unrest on the right. State Rep. Jim Lucas endorsed Rainwater and State Sen. Jim Tomes attended his rally. The Republicans for Rainwater Facebook page had over 8,200 members.

According to the wizards on social media, Holcomb is vulnerable because:

1. He’s never won a contested Republican primary.
2. He became the “accidental governor” after Mike Pence resigned the ticket to run with Donald Trump.
3. Attorney General Curtis Hill and Indianapolis Council Republicans have called his mask mandate unconstitutional and a power overreach.
4. Conservative activist Monica Boyer, who backed Richard Mourdock’s 2012 primary defeat of U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar, is supporting the Libertarian. “He is ignoring his base, Mike Pence’s base, (of) social conservatives,” Boyer told AP. “And actually, he’s doing more than ignoring us. He’s rolling over us with the bus and re-rolling over us.”

Rainwater did pick up a $10,000 large contribution from the Indiana Libertarian Party on Sept. 21, which he is converting to yard signs and an extremely modest cable TV buy. Should the Libertarian nominee go up on TV in the next few days, it would be the first time this pretend political party has done so earlier than one of the major parties, the Democrats, which is slipping into the Libertarian zone.

The notion that an incumbent Republican governor faces a serious threat from a Libertarian nominee is the stuff of fantasy. The Holcomb campaign has maintained an $8 million money edge over Democrat nominee Woody Myers and Rainwater. It has a fully funded TV ad program through Election Day. In the intense 5th CD race, Republican Victoria Spartz’s current TV ad says she is working with Gov. Holcomb on health care issues. If Holcomb was radioactive in any way, that wouldn’t happen.

The Holcomb campaign has made more than two million voter contacts. According to Indiana Republican Chairman Kyle Hupfer, internal polling had the race at 57% for Holcomb, 32% for Myers and 8% undecided in late July. On Aug. 10, Holcomb led Myers 60-20% with Rainwater at 4.7%. In September, Holcomb was at 57%, Myers 26%, Rainwater at 9% and 8% undecided. In the 5th CD, Hupfer said Holcomb had a 31% lead over Myers.

“We are seeing Rainwater in the 7% to 9% range in legislative race polling, but it’s coming at the expense of Woody Myers,” Hupfer said. “If Abdul paid anything for that poll, he overpaid. Abdul’s poll had the governor’s approval at 35%; we’ve never seen him below 65%.”

In 2016, Libertarian Rex Bell had 3.2% in the General Election. In 2012, Rupert Boneham polled 4%.

While Tomes and Lucas are playing fringe footsie with the Libertarian, are they willing to embrace the party’s agenda, which would decriminalize all recreational drugs, is pro-choice on abortion, and opposes President Trump’s reelection as well as the southern border wall? Most Hoosier Republicans are not going to go down that path.

Hupfer, who doubles as Holcomb’s campaign manager, told HPI, “It’s not that we don’t understand there’s some angst out there. We don’t have the mask police; no one is getting arrested. I don’t want to wear a mask, the governor doesn’t want to wear a mask, but we do because they work.” Hupfer cited the state’s 6.4% jobless rate and the fact that “Indiana is more open” than just about any other state, as a dynamic that supports his high polling numbers. On
Wednesday, Holcomb announced the Stage 5 pandemic reopening.

This morning, Holcomb received the Indiana Right to Life endorsement. “The sanctity of life is a fundamental right – and in practice we’ve seen it as a fundamental priority of Gov. Holcomb’s as he leads our state,” said Mike Fichter, president and chief executive officer of Indiana Right to Life. “Every day he works to protect Hoosier lives, including the unborn and the most vulnerable among us. He’s the only pro-life candidate in this race, and the right person to lead Indiana for another four years. We’re proud to give him our endorsement.”

Rainwater will appear with Libertarian presidential nominee Jo Jorgensen at a 6 p.m. Sunday rally at Grand Park in Westfield.

Myers campaign update

Democrat Woody Myers was endorsed by “Republican” Supt. Jennifer McCormick, who is now backing a handful of Democratic legislative candidates. On Holcomb’s move to Stage 5, Myers said, “Listening to the governor’s press conference today, you’d never know that Hoosiers are still dying from COVID-19, are experiencing economic collapse, calling 211 for help with rent, utilities and food assistance and that Black and Latino families are two times more likely than white households to have fallen behind on housing payments.”

The Myers campaign posted no new supplemental large donations over the past week. Myers told the IndyStar his campaign crossed the $1 million threshold. “I don’t know if my computer can do any more Zooms per day than we are doing now,” Myers said.

Myers received the endorsements of SEIU Local 1, SEIU Local 73, and SEIU Healthcare, this morning.

Horse Race Status: Safe Holcomb.

Bit of a danger for Change Research. This throws their entire methodology up for heavy criticism if they're way off and may not be hired again, at least in Indiana. This poll has literally been the only news in the governor election this year.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AndrewPEllison/status/1310663463459487747?s=20

You should back it not because Ds or Rs have any potential statewide targets, but because Change Research sucks and we might not see a public statewide poll for a long time.

[StateBoiler]

^ Kind of have problems with the notions of gofundme's for a guy pimping his job.

Rainwater received a $100,000 donation from some guy in Virginia.

[StateBoiler]

James Briggs, IndyStar:

You probably can’t name the Democrat running for governor Dr. Woody Myers had a special event planned for Thursday. The Democratic candidate for Indiana governor was scheduled to appear on video along with Jennifer McCormick, the Republican state superintendent. McCormick has endorsed Myers, offering a rare notable affirmation in his otherwise endorsement starved race against Gov. Eric Holcomb. Their joint event was a chance for Myers to make bipartisan inroads against a popular moderate Republican. Or, at least, it was supposed to be. The event didn’t happen. “Facebook seems to be down right now with live streams,” the Myers campaign said on Facebook. “Having troubleshooted for 20 minutes, we are being forced to reschedule our Education Town Hall for early next week.” Myers’ Facebook fail is emblematic of a sputtering campaign that is over-reliant on social media because that’s about all it’s got. The campaign can’t raise money, it burns through cash, it has been hemorrhaging staff members, and, as far as anyone with polling data can tell, it is not even in the same orbit as the Holcomb campaign. You might be wondering why Myers is struggling so much — that is, if you even know who Myers is. There’s a good chance you don’t. That’s another problem. On paper, Myers, 66, seems engineered for this moment, as though the universe led him through a five decade practicum for the sole purpose of challenging a Republican governor in 2020. But Democrats are alarmed by what they see as a campaign that never got on track — and now it has no apparent path to victory. “I’d like to have seen Woody place more emphasis on raising the necessary funds to communicate with voters,” said Kip Tew, the former chairman of the Indiana Democratic Party. The campaign had just $72,300 on hand as of July, compared with more than $8 million for Holcomb. Some interest groups that supported Democrat John Gregg four years ago are now aligned with Holcomb; others are sitting out the race, at least when it comes to financial contributions. Myers argues that the pandemic squashed his fundraising efforts.

Howey atomic yesterday:

4. Indy sets homicide record ... in October

It's early October, and Indianapolis has set a new homicide record at 160. IMPD investigated 154 criminal homicide cases in all of 2019 and 159 a year earlier — the city’s previous record high. IMPD Deputy Chief Craig McCartt: “I wish I knew what was causing it because if I did, we could certainly find solutions and put some of those things to work. It’s interesting because it’s not unique to Indianapolis. If you look at other large cities across the country, homicide rates are up in some places by 100%. Unfortunately, being up by 50 to 75% isn’t at all unusual around the country right now.”

Will Hogsett ever win another election?

[StateBoiler]

Indiana Business Journal podcast on the Governor's race, the 5th district race between Hale and Spartz, and the impact of early voting. https://www.ibj.com/articles/ibj-podcast-breaking-down-the-5th-district-governors-race-and-impact-of-early-voting

[libertpaulian]

That comic is 100% on the nose.

[StateBoiler]

That comic is 100% on the nose.

The amount of organization the Rainwater campaign has is by Libertarian standards insane. The Libertarian Party only has 15 or so organized county chapters in the state (out of 92). And there are defined pro-Rainwater groups on Facebook in charge of handing out signs and events in half of the 92 counties now. In northeast Indiana where I'm at, for the governor's race I see probably more Holcomb signs, but I've seen some Rainwaters, and I have yet to find a Myers. All the Biden/Harris signs don't have any other signs next to them.

This election provides evidence to my theory of outside of a few areas, the Democratic Party is a dying entity in Indiana, the Republican Convention being smart and not renominating Hill killed their state-level election chances this year, and they're ripe for being replaced for 2nd party status bearing in mind how complete a failure they are competing against the Republican Party in elections or for any kind of power. Gregg in his loss to Holcomb in 2016 won 13 counties. Hillary won 4 against Trump. St. Joseph (South Bend) she won narrowly. The other 3 were Marion, Lake, and Monroe. There's going to be a Biden bump to the Hillary numbers, but does anyone see Myers winning anything other than those 3? Are there any rural counties he takes 3rd? All the rural counties around me I see Gregg in 2016 in the 30-35% range. So if Myers is down 15 points to Gregg which is plausible, that puts him at 15-20% in these places.

(the crazy thing is he can count on a few points extra for Myers just because Biden is going to run stronger than Hillary did in 2016, can you imagine what his support would've been like if Myers ran this campaign with Hillary at the top?)

Myers will be aided by the people that don't even look at the governor's race and vote straight ticket Democrat. Thankfully most jurisdictions tell you how many straight ticket votes there are and you can then distinguish zombie voters versus people that actually made a choice in the governor's race. In Allen County in 2016 for the governor's race, the zombie vote was Holcomb 68.9%, Gregg 30.8%, Bell (Libertarian) 0.3%. The choice vote was Gregg 49.4%, Holcomb 45.7%, Bell 4.8%, and Write-in 0.1%.

Rainwater needs to present himself strongly at the debate next Tuesday, not because people will actually watch it (well, I will, but I'm a minority) but because any gaffe or flaw is going to be pounced on by the media whereas they'd give Holcomb or Myers the benefit of the doubt.

[StateBoiler]

Debate #1: https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=WZ1Y3YVkpmE

Jump to 31 minutes for coverage to actually start. Moderator is Andy Downs who runs the political science center at Purdue-Fort Wayne.

Myers' opening statement was for some reason pretty bad for what should've been decided on ahead of time, he stumbled through it and froze. Throughout the debate he was never able to get McCormick's position title correct.

All in all nothing in the debate is going to be a shock or change people's votes on the 6 o'clock news. Holcomb was forced to defend himself on two flanks and deflected a couple times but made no errors (one rebuttal he had was to give a shoutout to what a job his cabinet was doing which made me laugh).Rainwater made your typical Libertarian case and Myers after his flubbed opening statement recovered to lay out the Democratic point of view. Both of the challengers are representative of their party's orthodoxy while Holcomb defended his administration and the records of Republican governors the past 16 years.

[StateBoiler]

Wednesday, October 21, 2020 10:14 AM
By BRIAN A. HOWEY, in Indianapolis

1. A civil, unremarkable debate

Here are your hump day power lunch talking points: If anything, Tuesday's unremarkable gubernatorial debate provided a vivid contrast to that jarring presidential debate in Cleveland. But after an hour, the dynamics of this race which are headed for a GOP landslide didn't change. Gov. Eric Holcomb took on-coming from both Democrat Woody Myers and Libertarian Donald Rainwater over his pandemic response. "This is an extraordinary time and we've had to take extraordinary measures," Holcomb said. "So we do have a state-mandated mask requirement throughout the state; it's a strong statement that says this works."

Myers responded that Holcomb's mandate was just a "mask suggestion." Rainwater insisted, "Nowhere in constitution does it say that individual rights can be suspended." And, the Libertarian added, science hasn't proved people are at risk. Rainwater added later that "It's not government's job to create jobs, but to protect individual rights."

On the governor's executive powers he used during the pandemic, Holcomb said that they were "granted to the governor by the General Assembly." He added, "I have been in constant contact with legislators." Myers said he would have called a special session.

2. Myers and McCormick

The shiny object for Hoosier DemocratS has been "Republican" Supt. of Public Instruction Jennifer McCormick. Since she opted not to seek a second term back in 2018, she's endorsed Democrat congressional and legislative candidates, and Myers vowed to appoint her to her current post in the one "breaking news" debate moment. The problem is that Myers trails Holcomb by at least a couple dozen percentage points in the polls, and doesn't have the finances to mount the mandatory media campaign needed to win. What McCormick lacks is a constituency she can deliver. She needs to update her resume.

3. Rainwater's TV ad

Libertarian Donald Rainwater began running his TV ad campaign this morning. It comes before Democrat nominee Woody Myers has begun his TV ads, which is a first in Indiana politics. "Together we can take our state back," Rainwater says in the ad.

[StateBoiler]

Any of the local Hoosiers here listen to the Boss Hog of Liberty podcast? The host is Jeremiah Morrell, who's ran for the Libertarian Party a couple times in local races. It's based out of Henry County (New Castle, south of Muncie) and is about the best local politics podcast I've ever heard. They have multiple discussions with county councilmen, city councilmen, school board members, people running for those races, plus touch on discussions about Indiana and the U.S. as well.

https://bosshog.fireside.fm/

[StateBoiler]

Enter the legacy that's lived in D.C. most of his life.

Beau Bayh makes campaign debut

“The first home I went home to in Indianapolis was the Governor’s Mansion, which is proof that Democrats can win in Indiana.”

- Beau Bayh, campaigning on behalf of Democrat gubernatorial nominee Woody Myers.

He is the son of former governor and senator Evan Bayh. In October 1984, a young Evan Bayh barnstormed the state with underdog gubernatorial hopeful Wayne Townsend ("Go get 'em, Wayne"). When the pair appeared at the Elkhart Truth, reporter (and future Bayh) staffer Phil Schermerhorn asked Bayh, "Evan, what are you running for?"). In 1986, Evan Bayh won the secretary of state's office, then ended the GOP's 20-year gubernatorial dynasty two years later. With Hoosier Democrats barely above the Libertarians in the party pecking order (Donald Rainwater is running TV and radio ads; Myers isn't), the young Bayh's appearance will stoke up speculation that it may take a third-generation Bayh to restore Indiana Democrats to major party status.

[StateBoiler]

Trying to get an idea on governor's race results and it's a hard one to grasp. I previously said 51-38-11, I think right now I'm more 55-30-15, although Holcomb I can see clearing 60%. It's hard for me to tell how much of the Rainwater enthusiasm translates into real votes and how much of the Myers anti-enthusiasm doesn't extend beyond people that pay attention to politics. I think Holcomb is winning clearly, but the percentages everyone gets is a large range. For people that went and voted 2 weeks ago, what did they know or pay attention to in the governor's race (let alone county council)?

Politico had an article about this race from the 17th. They do talk about Myers and how he is seemingly made for this moment based on his pedigree but has been a complete failure. Gregg is quoted in the article:

“It’s been real disappointing because it can affect some down-ballot races,” Gregg, who thinks Myers is a poor communicator and fundraiser, told me. “He’s the most disappointing candidate that the Democrats have put forward in my lifetime. He is a physician in a pandemic, and an African American during our reckoning with racism and prejudice, and he’s still not gaining traction.” In response, a Myers’ campaign spokesperson says Myers “continues to be focused on direct voter contact while keeping the utmost caution during a pandemic,” and that Myers is benefiting from a number of early voters in Democratic strongholds.

I saw former state party chair Kip Tew in Howey Politics also say that the Myers campaign didn't focus early enough on fundraising. Feel there's going to be a lot of post-election analysis from them of "well, Myers completely failed" trying to pass as much of the failure off on him. He gets a lot - the botched finding of a nominee for lieutenant governor is inexcusable for any campaign that wants to be treated seriously - but the only reason Myers is the guy is because they could not find anyone else willing to run when everyone was thinking about it in 2019. Myers was never on the A-list or even B-list of potential hopefuls for the party.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/17/anti-mask-politics-scrambling-indianas-governors-race-429997

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Holcomb isn’t clearing 60%. Folks are fed up with the mask mandates and executive overreach. Driving around northeast Indiana regularly I’ve only seen maybe 2 Holcomb signs while seeing Rainwater signs and in almost every little town on 24 between Ft Wayne and Wabash and along US 30 toward Plymouth. It’s closer to a tossup than a Holcomb landslide.

[StateBoiler]

^ I live in the same general area as you and confirm the same as far as signs.

So Ragnar had a poll from the 18th to 21st they took. I have a problem with this poll which I'll explain below, but it does segregate voters that had already voted from the overall total.

Overall

President: Trump 48, Biden 40, Jorgensen 5, Undecided 7
Governor: Holcomb 52, Myers 26, Rainwater 14, Undecided 8

The poll says 22% already voted.

President: Biden 54, Trump 37, Jorgensen 2, Undecided 7
Governor: Holcomb 49, Myers 38, Rainwater 8, Undecided 6

HOW CAN YOU BE UNDECIDED IF YOU ALREADY VOTED?

But you can determine the composition of the remaining 78% that hadn't already voted:

Biden 0.40 = .22 * .54 + .78 * x -> x = 0.36
Trump 0.48 = .22 * .37 + .78 * x -> x = 0.51
Jorgensen 0.05 = .22 * .02 + .78 * x -> 0.06

Holcomb 0.52 = .22 * .49 + .78 * x -> x = 0.53
Myers 0.26 = .22 * .38 + .78 * x -> x = 0.23
Rainwater 0.14 = .22 * .08 + .78 * x -> x = 0.16

The 78% of the poll that had not cast their ballots already:

President: Trump 51, Biden 36, Jorgensen 6
Governor: Holcomb 53, Myers 23, Rainwater 16

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Those are really good numbers for Biden if true. If he's only losing Indiana by 8%, it's very likely Hale is winning IN-5. Rainwater at 14% also suggests a large number of Biden voters going to Holcomb: maybe Dems could have won the governorship after all (or at least kept it close) if they'd run a competent nominee.

[StateBoiler]

Howey's last pre-election newsletter today says that while Biden is much higher than Clinton, the anemic Myers performance for governor probably dooms Weinzapfel for Attorney General, hurts what could've been downballot, and may even stop Hale from winning in the 5th.

A lot of money has gone into Hale-Spartz, Howey ranks it a tossup. Also a lot of late money into various state legislature seats, predictably suburban seats.


I just realized this. It's funny to me, Todd Rokita can be considered the ultimate career politician, but one that actually believes in term limits.

[StateBoiler]

I saw my first Myers/Lawson sign today. Was in north Fort Wayne.

Past couple days I've seen TV ads for Weinzapfel, Rokita, and a Fort Wayne-based State House Representative that the Democrats are looking at defeating.

[StateBoiler]

Latest episode of Boss Hog of Liberty has both Democrat Jeannine Lake and Libertarian Tom Ferkinhoff on, the two people running to oust the Vice President's brother out of Congress in the 6th district, if you're interested.

https://bosshog.fireside.fm/

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Everyone else is going crazy about the presidential election but all I care about is a good performance from Rainwater.