The Megathread for All Things Hoosier!

[StateBoiler]

https://howeypolitics.com/Content/Default/Lead-Story/Article/Brian-Howey-If-you-see-a-courthouse-Democrat-take-a-photo/-3/346/19524

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[StateBoiler]

Some number crunching of precincts I've done. Donnelly vs. Tritch - Allen County only

Fort Wayne

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The 4 Republican-held City Council districts

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The 2 Democrat-held City Council districts

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Rest of Allen County (all unincorporated areas and the other cities and small towns, I've never seen a difference in voting patterns between unincorporated Allen County and non-Fort Wayne incorporated areas in the county)

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Looking at a couple other subdivisions based on State legislature seats and County Council seats, Tritch ran even to a little ahead of Donnelly almost everywhere that was Democrat-held. But Donnelly ran more ahead of her in jurisdictions that were Republican-held.

The imbalanced race of the two with one having a Libertarian and one not means you have to mull a bit versus being a straight up comparison, although it looks like the Libertarian in the 4 Republican-held City Council seat districts took entirely from Braun. In related news, the last week of the race I received a mailer comparing Lucy Brenton to Steve Braun, saying Braun was too liberal for Indiana, was a Democrat his whole life, and voted to raise taxes x number of times. The mailer said at the bottom it was paid for by the Indiana Democratic Party.

Tritch's lead from Fort Wayne over Banks is completely wiped out by Banks' performance over her in Huntertown for example, an electorate that was 29 times smaller than Fort Wayne. (If the Fort Wayne numbers seem odd to people not from this area as being more conservative than you'd think, Fort Wayne has done a really good job over the years of annexing its suburbs.) The county is such that the past couple elections the ratio of Fort Wayne voters to "Rest of Allen County" voters is 2:1. So for a Democrat to win the county if say RoAC went 70-30 Republican, they'd about have to win Fort Wayne 60-40. For comparison, Trump won the RoAC vote 70-25 over Clinton in 2016, and he also won Fort Wayne 50-44. The 2016 Senate race, Young won Fort Wayne 47-46 and RoAC 66-29. The 2016 governor's race, Holcomb won Fort Wayne 49-48 and RoAC 67-30.

[StateBoiler]

Howey:

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Part of me for McDermott sees him using a gubernatorial run for name value expecting to lose to Holcomb, and when Visclosky retires, he's the most recognizable candidate in what will be a Democratic primary free-for-all.

[StateBoiler]

Buttigieg. Not running for governor, or mayor of South Bend.

http://www.howeypolitics.com

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[StateBoiler]

One more potential Democrat opts not to run for governor.

https://howeypolitics.com/Content/HPI-News/-HPI-News/Article/Atomic-McDermott-reelection-Shutdown-talks-Romney-s-check-/39/123/19741

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https://howeypolitics.com/Content/Default/Lead-Story/Article/Atomic-TeamHolcomb-record-Gaveling-in-Trump-torches-Pence/-3/346/19752

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I think the Holcomb funding is more to discourage Curtis Hill's supporters than it is worrying about the Democrats' nominee.

[libertpaulian]

Looks like State Senator Jim Merritt is all in for the Indy Mayor Race:

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2019/01/09/jim-merritt-expected-challenge-joe-hogsett-indianapolis-mayor/2529883002/

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This GOP primary will be particularly interesting.  Assuming that Merritt wins the primary and ousts Hogsett (which I highly doubt, given the anti-GOP fever that's swept the nation, especially in major metro areas), there'd be an empty state senate seat.  And given that Merritt was re-elected this past November by a mere 1600 votes, the special election to fill his seat will be one to watch.  For those in this thread who don't know, Merritt's seat covers parts of eastern Fishers, as well as a chunk of northeastern Indianapolis, which demonstrates the nationwide anti-Trump/anti-GOP suburban trend.

[StateBoiler]

Biggest news from this is Donnelly appears uninterested.

https://howeypolitics.com/Files/HPI190117-d87bf71e829a48808238a9a6d1f064a5.pdf

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[StateBoiler]

From Howey:

Donnelly not interested in challenging Gov. Holcomb in 2020

"I am not looking at any other races." - Former senator Joe Donnelly after Howey Politics Indiana asked him in today's HPI Interview at the University of Notre Dame if he was considering a challenge in 2020 to Gov. Eric Holcomb. Asked if he would rule anything out politically in the future, Donnelly responded, "I’m just lucky to have a chance to teach here and I’m trying to get my snow blower going these days."  Donnelly lost to U.S. Sen. Mike Braun in 2018, ending a 12 year career in Congress. Currently there isn't an Indiana Democrat expressing public interest in challenging Holcomb. One Democratic insider told HPI the party may opt for a "placeholder" nominee while mounting a serious challenge to embattled Republican Attorney General Curtis Hill.

[SnowLabrador]

Yeah, I think Donnelly is done with politics.

[libertpaulian]

From Howey:

Donnelly not interested in challenging Gov. Holcomb in 2020

"I am not looking at any other races." - Former senator Joe Donnelly after Howey Politics Indiana asked him in today's HPI Interview at the University of Notre Dame if he was considering a challenge in 2020 to Gov. Eric Holcomb. Asked if he would rule anything out politically in the future, Donnelly responded, "I’m just lucky to have a chance to teach here and I’m trying to get my snow blower going these days."  Donnelly lost to U.S. Sen. Mike Braun in 2018, ending a 12 year career in Congress. Currently there isn't an Indiana Democrat expressing public interest in challenging Holcomb. One Democratic insider told HPI the party may opt for a "placeholder" nominee while mounting a serious challenge to embattled Republican Attorney General Curtis Hill.

This is definitely the Dems' best game plan going forward.  Win back some row offices and gain some more seats in the state legislature and start building up a bench for 2022 and beyond.

[S019]

John Gregg will probably run yet again, run another close race, but ultimately lose. 2018 showed that Democrars should just triage Indiana

[libertpaulian]

Mayor Pete has qualified for the debates!

https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/Thanks-donors-Mayor-Pete-says-hes-in-presidential-debates-507267061.html

Democratic presidential hopeful Pete Buttigieg (BOO'-tuh-juhj) says he's met a fundraising threshold to participate in this summer's debates.

The South Bend, Indiana, mayor said on Saturday he received donations from more than 65,000 individual donors.

The Democratic National Committee said last month up to 20 candidates can qualify for the debates by collecting donations from at least 65,000 individuals, with at least 200 unique donors in at least 20 states. They also can qualify by reaching 1 percent support in at least three national or early primary state polls.

In an email to supporters Buttigieg says "we weren't even close" to 65,000 donors when the DNC announced the requirement. The 37-year-old veteran says more than 76,000 people have now donated.

The debates will be held in June and July.

This is going to be an interesting campaign!

[libertpaulian]

AG Curtis Hill faces ethical complaints, which could cost him his law license...and his elected position:

https://www.wthr.com/article/supreme-court-disciplinary-commission-files-complaint-against-ag-curtis-hill

INDIANAPOLIS (WTHR) - The Indiana Supreme Court's Disciplinary Commission filed a disciplinary complaint against Attorney General Curtis Hill Tuesday morning.

Four women, including State Rep. Mara Candelaria Reardon, accused Hill of sexually harassing and groping them at a party celebrating the end of the 2018 legislative session last March.

In Tuesday's complaint, the Commission said Hill "engaged in a pattern of misconduct" and "committed criminal acts, each of which reflects adversely on his honesty, trustworthiness or fitness as a lawyer," among other issues that violate the state's Rules of Professional Conduct for Attorneys at Law.

This is YUGE news. 

If he gets disbarred or has his law license suspended, I could see him primarying Holcomb in a way to exact revenge on the INGOP for not standing by him.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Mayor Pete has qualified for the debates!

https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/Thanks-donors-Mayor-Pete-says-hes-in-presidential-debates-507267061.html

Democratic presidential hopeful Pete Buttigieg (BOO'-tuh-juhj) says he's met a fundraising threshold to participate in this summer's debates.

The South Bend, Indiana, mayor said on Saturday he received donations from more than 65,000 individual donors.

The Democratic National Committee said last month up to 20 candidates can qualify for the debates by collecting donations from at least 65,000 individuals, with at least 200 unique donors in at least 20 states. They also can qualify by reaching 1 percent support in at least three national or early primary state polls.

In an email to supporters Buttigieg says "we weren't even close" to 65,000 donors when the DNC announced the requirement. The 37-year-old veteran says more than 76,000 people have now donated.

The debates will be held in June and July.

This is going to be an interesting campaign!

[StateBoiler]

Mr. Howey again:

4. Rokita challenge to AG Hill?

 Former congressman Todd Rokita issued a "no comment" after we asked if he would challenge Attorney General Curtis Hill in the June 2020 Republican Convention. Sources tell HPI that Rokita has been approached by Republicans inside and outside of Indianapolis about challenging Hill, who is facing an Indiana Supreme Court disciplinary action over allegations from four women of sexual harassment. Since those allegations, Gov. Holcomb and the GOP hierarchy have called for him to resign. Rokita won a four-way convention floor fight for secretary of state in 2002. Republicans are concerned that Hill could provide a similar beachhead for Democrats. When Rokita was nominated in 2002, Democrats held the governors office and House. John Westercamp, an attorney with Bose McKinney, is also weighing a GOP convention challenge to Hill. We’re hearing that Democrats would like Hammond Mayor Thomas McDermott Jr. to seek their nomination.

[libertpaulian]

McDermott LOL

I'm literally next door to Hammond.  Being mayor of a post-industrial micro-city is a cursed job.  He wouldn't do well outside Da Region, South Bend, Indy, and Bloomington.

[StateBoiler]

By BRIAN A. HOWEY

INDIANAPOLIS – The most likely gubernatorial scenario appears to be former health commissioner Woody Myers challenging Gov. Eric Holcomb. Indiana Democrats tell HPI that beyond Myers, John Gregg and Christina Hale, others are gauging potential runs, though party sources were reluctant to reveal who they are. Other names surfacing include former congressman
Baron Hill, State Rep. Karlee Macer of Indianapolis and State Sen. Eddie Melton of Gary.

[S019]

Gregg would be an instant front-runner for the primary, when he runs

[Frenchrepublican]

Gregg would be an instant front-runner for the primary, when he runs

Does this guy has nothing better to do in his life ?

[Frenchrepublican]

Does anyone has an idea about how competitive the mayoral election in Fort Wayne will be ?

[lfromnj]

The race is Safe R but could the D's run that new state senator?

[StateBoiler]

Does anyone has an idea about how competitive the mayoral election in Fort Wayne will be ?

Competitive. To what extent will depend on the general election campaign. Everyone expected a competitive race 4 years ago and the Republican candidate Mitch Harper had health issues as did his wife plus had trouble raising money, so by the time the election came everyone knew Henry was winning.

The Republicans have a contested primary today between longtime city councilman Dr. John Crawford and Tim Smith, a new individual to politics that is heavily backed by the local business community. I think Smith is expected to win. I voted for Crawford this morning. Mayor Tom Henry has two perennial candidates running against him in the Democratic primary and will win that easily.

The Indianapolis mayor's race in November is also going to be a horse race.

Other primaries of note today in Indiana: South Bend Democrats will nominate a replacement for Mayor Pete Buttigieg in a 9-way primary. The Gary mayor Karen Freeman-Wilson is reportedly very fragile in her Democratic Party primary. The Carmel Republican primary has also had some fireworks.

[Frenchrepublican]

Does anyone has an idea about how competitive the mayoral election in Fort Wayne will be ?

Competitive. To what extent will depend on the general election campaign. Everyone expected a competitive race 4 years ago and the Republican candidate Mitch Harper had health issues as did his wife plus had trouble raising money, so by the time the election came everyone knew Henry was winning.

The Republicans have a contested primary today between longtime city councilman Dr. John Crawford and Tim Smith, a new individual to politics that is heavily backed by the local business community. I think Smith is expected to win. I voted for Crawford this morning. Mayor Tom Henry has two perennial candidates running against him in the Democratic primary and will win that easily.

The Indianapolis mayor's race in November is also going to be a horse race.

Other primaries of note today in Indiana: South Bend Democrats will nominate a replacement for Mayor Pete Buttigieg in a 9-way primary. The Gary mayor Karen Freeman-Wilson is reportedly very fragile in her Democratic Party primary. The Carmel Republican primary has also had some fireworks.

OK, Thank you for the explanation.
I was really surprised when I learned a few months ago that Trump had actually won the city of Fort Wayne itself as I thought that the city proper was D-leaning with conservative rural areas and exurbs around it. It would be great if the GOP could improve the number of R-held municipality,

Concerning Indianapolis it seems that the city is now very democratic, do you really think it could be competitive ?

[StateBoiler]

Does anyone has an idea about how competitive the mayoral election in Fort Wayne will be ?

Competitive. To what extent will depend on the general election campaign. Everyone expected a competitive race 4 years ago and the Republican candidate Mitch Harper had health issues as did his wife plus had trouble raising money, so by the time the election came everyone knew Henry was winning.

The Republicans have a contested primary today between longtime city councilman Dr. John Crawford and Tim Smith, a new individual to politics that is heavily backed by the local business community. I think Smith is expected to win. I voted for Crawford this morning. Mayor Tom Henry has two perennial candidates running against him in the Democratic primary and will win that easily.

The Indianapolis mayor's race in November is also going to be a horse race.

Other primaries of note today in Indiana: South Bend Democrats will nominate a replacement for Mayor Pete Buttigieg in a 9-way primary. The Gary mayor Karen Freeman-Wilson is reportedly very fragile in her Democratic Party primary. The Carmel Republican primary has also had some fireworks.

OK, Thank you for the explanation.
I was really surprised when I learned a few months ago that Trump had actually won the city of Fort Wayne itself as I thought that the city proper was D-leaning with conservative rural areas and exurbs around it. It would be great if the GOP could improve the number of R-held municipality,

Concerning Indianapolis it seems that the city is now very democratic, do you really think it could be competitive ?

Fort Wayne has done a good job annexing its suburbs the past 60 years. It means the city is more conservative than you would think. The City Council breakdown is 7-2 Republican, with a Democratic Mayor. Trump won the city in 2016 50-44. He won the rest of the county 70-25.

Indianapolis. First, it's really Marion County because the recently deceased former Indiana Senator Richard Lugar when he was Indianapolis Mayor pushed through Unigov to consolidate city and county government. The current Democratic mayor Hogsett has been under a lot of criticism for his stewardship. Crime has gone up and infrastructure problems are present. Whether that's enough to turn the city red in the current climate is another question.

The one thing Indiana Democrats have kind of going for it is they have some important mayor positions. Losing Indianapolis and Fort Wayne - 2 largest cities in the state - would be a bad pill to swallow.

[Frenchrepublican]

Does anyone has an idea about how competitive the mayoral election in Fort Wayne will be ?

Competitive. To what extent will depend on the general election campaign. Everyone expected a competitive race 4 years ago and the Republican candidate Mitch Harper had health issues as did his wife plus had trouble raising money, so by the time the election came everyone knew Henry was winning.

The Republicans have a contested primary today between longtime city councilman Dr. John Crawford and Tim Smith, a new individual to politics that is heavily backed by the local business community. I think Smith is expected to win. I voted for Crawford this morning. Mayor Tom Henry has two perennial candidates running against him in the Democratic primary and will win that easily.

The Indianapolis mayor's race in November is also going to be a horse race.

Other primaries of note today in Indiana: South Bend Democrats will nominate a replacement for Mayor Pete Buttigieg in a 9-way primary. The Gary mayor Karen Freeman-Wilson is reportedly very fragile in her Democratic Party primary. The Carmel Republican primary has also had some fireworks.

OK, Thank you for the explanation.
I was really surprised when I learned a few months ago that Trump had actually won the city of Fort Wayne itself as I thought that the city proper was D-leaning with conservative rural areas and exurbs around it. It would be great if the GOP could improve the number of R-held municipality,

Concerning Indianapolis it seems that the city is now very democratic, do you really think it could be competitive ?

Fort Wayne has done a good job annexing its suburbs the past 60 years. It means the city is more conservative than you would think. The City Council breakdown is 7-2 Republican, with a Democratic Mayor. Trump won the city in 2016 50-44. He won the rest of the county 70-25.

Indianapolis. First, it's really Marion County because the recently deceased former Indiana Senator Richard Lugar when he was Indianapolis Mayor pushed through Unigov to consolidate city and county government. The current Democratic mayor Hogsett has been under a lot of criticism for his stewardship. Crime has gone up and infrastructure problems are present. Whether that's enough to turn the city red in the current climate is another question.

The one thing Indiana Democrats have kind of going for it is they have some important mayor positions. Losing Indianapolis and Fort Wayne - 2 largest cities in the state - would be a bad pill to swallow.

OK, now I understand why the city of Fort Wayne is more conservative than most other cities of its size.
Concerning Indinapolis I knew this fact about Unigov, Lugar was afraid of ''white flight'' and the loss of taxpayers to suburbs, so he pushed for the consolidation of Indianapolis with Marion County. The thing is Indianapolis/Marion County is now very democratic, I'm not even sure that Eric Holcomb will be able to carry it in 2020 against the D sacrificial lamb, to be honest I don't think that the mayoral election will be really competitive.