The Megathread for All Things Hoosier!
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Continential
The Op
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« Reply #200 on: June 03, 2020, 08:18:18 AM »

Hopefully Zody loses in District 40 and resigns after that.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #201 on: June 03, 2020, 08:21:47 AM »

McDermott conceded to Mrvan. Mrvan had the support of outgoing Representative Visclosky and the Steelworkers Union local.

General Assembly:

Quote
In General Assembly races, House Majority Leader Matt Lehman was fending off a challenge from social conservative Taylor Isch, winning by 10% at this posting.


In HD88, the seat being vacated by former House Speaker Brian Bosma, social conservative Chris Jeter defeated Fishers Deputy Mayor Leah McGrath, who had been endorsed by Gov. Eric Holcomb. With 73% of the vote reporting, Jeter had a 58-42% lead over McGrath.

In the open HD6, Maureen Bauer had a 44-39% lead over Garrett Blad with 72% reporting. She is the daughter of out-going State Rep. B. Patrick Bauer. The AP declared Bauer the winner.

In HD93, caucus appointed State Rep. Dollyne Sherman lost to John Jacob, who had a 52-48% lead with 80% reporting, according to AP.

In HD39, Democrat Ashley Klein defeated 2018 nominee Mark Hinton and will take on State Rep. Gerald Torr.

In HD45, Republican State Rep. Bruce Borders defeated Jeff Garmong with 68% of the vote.

In the open HD58, Michelle Davis opened up a 10% lead over Jay Hart with 69% reporting. The AP declared her the winner.



Wasn't McDermott heavily favored?
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #202 on: June 03, 2020, 08:53:18 AM »

McDermott conceded to Mrvan. Mrvan had the support of outgoing Representative Visclosky and the Steelworkers Union local.

General Assembly:

Quote
In General Assembly races, House Majority Leader Matt Lehman was fending off a challenge from social conservative Taylor Isch, winning by 10% at this posting.


In HD88, the seat being vacated by former House Speaker Brian Bosma, social conservative Chris Jeter defeated Fishers Deputy Mayor Leah McGrath, who had been endorsed by Gov. Eric Holcomb. With 73% of the vote reporting, Jeter had a 58-42% lead over McGrath.

In the open HD6, Maureen Bauer had a 44-39% lead over Garrett Blad with 72% reporting. She is the daughter of out-going State Rep. B. Patrick Bauer. The AP declared Bauer the winner.

In HD93, caucus appointed State Rep. Dollyne Sherman lost to John Jacob, who had a 52-48% lead with 80% reporting, according to AP.

In HD39, Democrat Ashley Klein defeated 2018 nominee Mark Hinton and will take on State Rep. Gerald Torr.

In HD45, Republican State Rep. Bruce Borders defeated Jeff Garmong with 68% of the vote.

In the open HD58, Michelle Davis opened up a 10% lead over Jay Hart with 69% reporting. The AP declared her the winner.



Wasn't McDermott heavily favored?
Somewhat.  However, organized labor is king up here.
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #203 on: June 03, 2020, 12:37:46 PM »

Mrvan's opponent in November will be Mark Leyva, who for the 8th time will be the Republicans' nominee for the 1st district. He is 0-7 vs. Visclosky, so in November he'll have a new opponent. Per Eric Berman of WIBC's Twitter, he needs this plus two more failed bids to tie the all-time highest loser in the state, a member of the Prohibition Party from long ago.
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Storr
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« Reply #204 on: June 03, 2020, 12:41:33 PM »

Mrvan's opponent in November will be Mark Leyva, who for the 8th time will be the Republicans' nominee for the 1st district. He is 0-7 vs. Visclosky, so in November he'll have a new opponent. Per Eric Berman of WIBC's Twitter, he needs this plus two more failed bids to tie the all-time highest loser in the state, a member of the Prohibition Party from long ago.
You'd think Republicans would have somebody new to run with an incumbent retiring, but I guess not.
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #205 on: June 03, 2020, 04:45:03 PM »

Mrvan's opponent in November will be Mark Leyva, who for the 8th time will be the Republicans' nominee for the 1st district. He is 0-7 vs. Visclosky, so in November he'll have a new opponent. Per Eric Berman of WIBC's Twitter, he needs this plus two more failed bids to tie the all-time highest loser in the state, a member of the Prohibition Party from long ago.
You'd think Republicans would have somebody new to run with an incumbent retiring, but I guess not.

2020-won with 36% in a 6 candidate field
2018-won with 27% in a 6 candidate field
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #206 on: June 05, 2020, 10:37:46 AM »

Zody lost his primary 80-18.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #207 on: June 05, 2020, 11:03:36 AM »

I'd say that's the perfect metaphor for how he's run the state party.
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Horus
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« Reply #208 on: June 05, 2020, 01:01:17 PM »

How much of a chance does Hale have in IN-5?
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #209 on: June 05, 2020, 03:08:12 PM »

How much of a chance does Hale have in IN-5?
Not fantastic, but much better than previous Dem nominees.  Let's just say that Spartz is going to need to start sleeping with one eye open.
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walleye26
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« Reply #210 on: June 06, 2020, 02:28:35 PM »

Is Spartz a good nominee or pretty bad?
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #211 on: June 06, 2020, 08:56:53 PM »

Is Spartz a good nominee or pretty bad?

she was heavily pushed by Club for Growth
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
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« Reply #212 on: June 11, 2020, 07:51:03 PM »

Map of presidential turnout in Carmel by precinct and party. Some of these were very close: Daniel Warren (central) came in 115 R to 113 D; Greensprings (southeast) 190 to 194; Hunter's Trace (also central) 51 to 52; Stonehenge 1 (extreme north central) 128 to 122; Hunter's Creek (north) 123 to 128; Kingswood 1 (southeast) 142 to 134. (Full results.) Notably, in many 50% R precincts in central Carmel the vote for Weld is several times larger than the margin. Overall what you would expect: more or less the same east/west divide we saw in 2018, with Rs improving slightly on Braun in central Carmel.


(1)

N.B. Results for Brookshire North and Pleasant Grove 2, shown in dark grey, are not currently available on the county website.


(1) Source: Own work.
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #213 on: June 12, 2020, 12:27:34 AM »

Mrvan's opponent in November will be Mark Leyva, who for the 8th time will be the Republicans' nominee for the 1st district. He is 0-7 vs. Visclosky

Mark Levvya won the GOP nomination against Visclosky in 2002, '04, '06, '08, '10, '14, '18, and now against Mrvan in 2020.

Move aside Dino Rossi! This is the real perennial candidate. What's more he didn't run in 2012 or 2016, so he's actually on a 8-0 winning streak of Indiana GOP nominations. He must have his own quirky base.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #214 on: June 12, 2020, 10:13:10 AM »

Map of presidential turnout in Carmel by precinct and party. Some of these were very close: Daniel Warren (central) came in 115 R to 113 D; Greensprings (southeast) 190 to 194; Hunter's Trace (also central) 51 to 52; Stonehenge 1 (extreme north central) 128 to 122; Hunter's Creek (north) 123 to 128; Kingswood 1 (southeast) 142 to 134. (Full results.) Notably, in many 50% R precincts in central Carmel the vote for Weld is several times larger than the margin. Overall what you would expect: more or less the same east/west divide we saw in 2018, with Rs improving slightly on Braun in central Carmel.


(1)

N.B. Results for Brookshire North and Pleasant Grove 2, shown in dark grey, are not currently available on the county website.


(1) Source: Own work.
Are these in Atlas or conventional colors?
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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« Reply #215 on: June 13, 2020, 03:13:30 PM »

Map of presidential turnout in Carmel by precinct and party. Some of these were very close: Daniel Warren (central) came in 115 R to 113 D; Greensprings (southeast) 190 to 194; Hunter's Trace (also central) 51 to 52; Stonehenge 1 (extreme north central) 128 to 122; Hunter's Creek (north) 123 to 128; Kingswood 1 (southeast) 142 to 134. (Full results.) Notably, in many 50% R precincts in central Carmel the vote for Weld is several times larger than the margin. Overall what you would expect: more or less the same east/west divide we saw in 2018, with Rs improving slightly on Braun in central Carmel.


(1)

N.B. Results for Brookshire North and Pleasant Grove 2, shown in dark grey, are not currently available on the county website.


(1) Source: Own work.
Are these in Atlas or conventional colors?
Atlas colors, of course! I am not a godless heathen.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #216 on: June 13, 2020, 03:37:52 PM »

Map of presidential turnout in Carmel by precinct and party. Some of these were very close: Daniel Warren (central) came in 115 R to 113 D; Greensprings (southeast) 190 to 194; Hunter's Trace (also central) 51 to 52; Stonehenge 1 (extreme north central) 128 to 122; Hunter's Creek (north) 123 to 128; Kingswood 1 (southeast) 142 to 134. (Full results.) Notably, in many 50% R precincts in central Carmel the vote for Weld is several times larger than the margin. Overall what you would expect: more or less the same east/west divide we saw in 2018, with Rs improving slightly on Braun in central Carmel.


(1)

N.B. Results for Brookshire North and Pleasant Grove 2, shown in dark grey, are not currently available on the county website.


(1) Source: Own work.
Are these in Atlas or conventional colors?
Atlas colors, of course! I am not a godless heathen.
Carmel definitely looks like it's going to go D citywide in the near future.
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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« Reply #217 on: June 13, 2020, 04:02:24 PM »

Map of presidential turnout in Carmel by precinct and party. Some of these were very close: Daniel Warren (central) came in 115 R to 113 D; Greensprings (southeast) 190 to 194; Hunter's Trace (also central) 51 to 52; Stonehenge 1 (extreme north central) 128 to 122; Hunter's Creek (north) 123 to 128; Kingswood 1 (southeast) 142 to 134. (Full results.) Notably, in many 50% R precincts in central Carmel the vote for Weld is several times larger than the margin. Overall what you would expect: more or less the same east/west divide we saw in 2018, with Rs improving slightly on Braun in central Carmel.


(1)

N.B. Results for Brookshire North and Pleasant Grove 2, shown in dark grey, are not currently available on the county website.


(1) Source: Own work.
Are these in Atlas or conventional colors?
Atlas colors, of course! I am not a godless heathen.
Carmel definitely looks like it's going to go D citywide in the near future.
Braun carried the city by 17 votes in 2018. If Biden wins the PV by anywhere near the margin he's leading in national polls right now, I would not be even remotely surprised to see Carmel go Atlas-red this cycle. Otherwise, I expect we'll see the first Democratic presidential majority within the decade, either in 2024 or 2028, depending on how those cycles turn out.

Interestingly, despite the narrative that wealthy suburbanites are fueling the growing Democratic advantage, it is —for the most part —the (relatively) modest to lower-middle class neighborhoods in East Carmel that have proved most susceptible to Democratic candidates up and down the ballot, while the wealthiest precincts remain more or less solidly in the Republican column. (Granted what is "poor" in Carmel is nevertheless well above the poverty line, but still.)
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #218 on: June 13, 2020, 04:04:41 PM »

Any news on the AG Convention today? Weinzapfel seems like the strongest candidate, but the race is only winnable if Hill is nominated again
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
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« Reply #219 on: June 14, 2020, 05:46:47 PM »

Any news on the AG Convention today? Weinzapfel seems like the strongest candidate, but the race is only winnable if Hill is nominated again
According to this, results will be available Thursday once the state committee finishes counting mail-in ballots.
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #220 on: June 15, 2020, 08:17:24 AM »

Howey's latest newsletter says Republicans are telling him that they think Hill is in trouble if it goes past 1 ballot, so that demonstrates the belief that anyone not backing Hill from the start is not backing him on later ballots (i.e. he's either 1st choice or 4th choice).

I'll probably vote for Harter 1st due to having a good conversation with him on the phone, but Rokita will be my #2 and I think the ultimate winner will either be Hill or Rokita. Westercamp I feel is taking 4th place on ballot #1.
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walleye26
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« Reply #221 on: June 17, 2020, 08:14:17 PM »

Are there any major differences between Carmel and Fishers or not really?
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
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« Reply #222 on: June 17, 2020, 09:43:54 PM »

Weinzapfel wins the Dem nomination for Attorney General. Hopefully he faces Hill in the general, because thats what it will take for Weinzapfel to win.
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
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« Reply #223 on: June 17, 2020, 10:20:04 PM »

Are there any major differences between Carmel and Fishers or not really?
They're pretty similar in the important ways.
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #224 on: June 18, 2020, 07:29:06 AM »

Weinzapfel wins the Dem nomination for Attorney General. Hopefully he faces Hill in the general, because thats what it will take for Weinzapfel to win.

Wow. Very narrow win. The delegates to the Convention that did not vote could've swung it.

Quote
INDIANAPOLIS - Former Evansville mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel won a 48-vote Democrat attorney general nomination Wednesday night and now has to wait three weeks before he knows whether he will face embattled Republican incumbent Curtis Hill or one of three challengers.

Weinzapfel defeated State Sen. Karen Tallian, 1,057 to 1,009, with 86% of the delegates participating in this pandemic inspired virtual state convention.
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