KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[pppolitics]

Kansas is probably Repulican’s version of Massachusetts.

Democrat can win the governorship, but it’s going to take a perfect storm to win a Senate seat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I expect Dems to win KS, NC, AZ and CO. KS with Kelly is different now.

[Roll Roons]

I expect Dems to win KS, NC, AZ and CO. KS with Kelly is different now.

No it's not. Sebelius was also governor in the 2000s, but that didn't mean KS senate races in 2004 and 2008 were anything other than Safe R. The state hasn't had a Democratic senator since FDR was in office. This will only be competitive if Kris Kobach or Sam Brownback is the nominee.

[tmthforu94]

I expect Dems to win KS, NC, AZ and CO. KS with Kelly is different now.

Not really. Johnson County is trending hard against Republicans/Trump, but in turn, rural areas are turning hard against Democrats. Remains to be seen if these trends will be long-term or just an effect to Trump.

[tmthforu94]

Even if Kobach runs, I doubt he would win the nomination if there is a half-decent Republican alternative. He only barely scraped past Colyer last year in the gubernatorial primary and now has a pretty embarrassing defeat looming over his head; I don't think that a plurality of KS Republicans want to give him another shot at throwing away a very winnable race, considering a majority didn't even favor him in the primary last year.

I agree with you, I can't see Kobach winning unless it is a very divided field (which is plausible). If he does win the primary, though, I think he'd be favored in the general unless 2020 gets very very bad for Republican.

[windjammer]

I mean, KS seems to be trending dem a bit but it's still going to be reliably republican in the foreseable future.

[lfromnj]

anyway kansas 4th should be more dem than kansas 2nd soon enough.

[Politician]

anyway kansas 4th should be more dem than kansas 2nd soon enough.

Stop

[😥]

If Roberts will run again for 5th term, then this race with good Dem candidate (not Sharice Davids) can be Lean D and Democrat can win this race in the end
If Roberts will retire, then GOP nominee will be probably Roger Marshall, so race will be Likely R with anyone Democrat.
Only one way, when this race will be Tossup or Lean D if Roberts retires, if GOP nominee will be Kobach or Brownback

[tmthforu94]

I can say with 99% certainty (because there's always a small chance) that Brownback will not be running for this seat. I'd also be surprised if Kobach runs, but who knows, he can be a moron.

[tmthforu94]

Roberts is holding a press conference in Kansas at 11:15. Expected to be decision on 2020 race.

[Alabama_Indy10]

If Roberts will run again for 5th term, then this race with good Dem candidate (not Sharice Davids) this can be Lean D and Democrat van win this race in the end
If Roberts will retire, then GOP nominee will be probably Roger Marshall, so race will be Likely R with anyone Democrat.
Only one way, when this race will be Tossup or Lean D if Roberts retires, if GOP nominee will be Kobach or Brownback

Lean D is REALLY stretching it.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/henryrodgersdc/status/1081198460660006914

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/henryrodgersdc/status/1081198460660006914

He'll be 84 in 2020. I'd be more surprised if he didn't retire.

[smoltchanov]

If Roberts will run again for 5th term, then this race with good Dem candidate (not Sharice Davids) this can be Lean D and Democrat van win this race in the end
If Roberts will retire, then GOP nominee will be probably Roger Marshall, so race will be Likely R with anyone Democrat.
Only one way, when this race will be Tossup or Lean D if Roberts retires, if GOP nominee will be Kobach or Brownback

Lean D is REALLY stretching it.

Yeah, and substantially. Even with Brownback-Kobach type of candidate (the best for Democrats) it would be at least tossup.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

3rd most vulnerable seat after AZ and CO

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/henryrodgersdc/status/1081198460660006914

Svaty should run for this.  Davis has already proven twice that he isn't able to win a race.

[Alabama_Indy10]

3rd most vulnerable seat after AZ and CO

You forgot THE most vulnerable seat.

[Roll Roons]

3rd most vulnerable seat after AZ and CO

You forgot THE most vulnerable seat.

Probably referring only to R-held seats. Anyway, I'd say KS is 8th, after CO, AZ, NC, ME, GA, IA and TX.

[Jeppe]

The best possible case for Democrats in this race is Lynn Jenkins winning instead of a tea party nut-job. Actually winning the seat is a pipe dream.

[Jeppe]

https://twitter.com/henryrodgersdc/status/1081198460660006914

Svaty should run for this.  Davis has already proven twice that he isn't able to win a race.

Svaty would have a difficult time winning the primary, his voting record and position on abortion is a non-starter, and the reason why he got less than 20% in the Governor primary. Katrina Lewison might be good though, she broke from Svaty on abortion quite directly, and actually campaigned with Laura Kelly after the primary, instead of staying neutral between the Kobach-Kelly race like Svaty did.

[YE]

https://twitter.com/henryrodgersdc/status/1081198460660006914

Svaty should run for this.  Davis has already proven twice that he isn't able to win a race.

Svaty would have a difficult time winning the primary, his voting record and position on abortion is a non-starter, and the reason why he got less than 20% in the Governor primary. Katrina Lewison might be good though, she broke from Svaty on abortion quite directly, and actually campaigned with Laura Kelly after the primary, instead of staying neutral between the Kobach-Kelly race like Svaty did.

Considering a third of Democrats, myself included to a large extent, are pro-life, doubtful. Of course, it seems to bother the clowns at PP and Emily’s List as they attacked Svaty for no good reason other than impose their abortion litmus test on the entire party, especially in a rural state like Kansas.

[smoltchanov]

https://twitter.com/henryrodgersdc/status/1081198460660006914

Svaty should run for this.  Davis has already proven twice that he isn't able to win a race.

Svaty would have a difficult time winning the primary, his voting record and position on abortion is a non-starter, and the reason why he got less than 20% in the Governor primary. Katrina Lewison might be good though, she broke from Svaty on abortion quite directly, and actually campaigned with Laura Kelly after the primary, instead of staying neutral between the Kobach-Kelly race like Svaty did.

Considering a third of Democrats, myself included to a large extent, are pro-life, doubtful. Of course, it seems to bother the clowns at PP and Emily’s List as they attacked Svaty for no good reason other than impose their abortion litmus test on the entire party, especially in a rural state like Kansas.

+100. I would only add, that in some states (Louisiana could be good example) pro-life Democrats are majority of Democratic caucus in state legislature, and, most likely, among all registered Democrats as well... Different states = different positions on issues.

[tmthforu94]

BREAKING

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article223905880.html

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[Pollster]

Was unfamiliar with Katrina Lewison before the above post. She looks like she would be a formidable candidate.