Is Virginia now a Safe Democratic state?

[Calthrina950]

If it wasn't clear enough after 2016, it should be very clear now that under normal conditions, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia are gone for Republicans. Trump's best hope in 2020 is holding on to at least one of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

You're right. It's amazing that those states in your first list haven't gone Republican since 2004, and with the way they are trending, they won't for a long time to come. And I think it will be very difficult for Trump to win Pennsylvania in 2020, given that both Casey and Wolf won by double digits, and that Democrats made House gains there. The Philadelphia suburbs, I believe, will cancel out the rural and working-class counties Trump relied upon last time, if the Democratic nominee of 2020 can replicate this year's performance in them.

Didn't Nevada actually trend republican twice?

In 2012 and 2016, I believe. Obama went from winning the state by 13 points in 2008 to winning it by 6 in 2012, and Clinton won by only 2 in 2016. However, that trend seems to have reversed, as Rosen defeated Heller by 5 this year, and Sisolak won by 4.

[lfromnj]

If it wasn't clear enough after 2016, it should be very clear now that under normal conditions, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia are gone for Republicans. Trump's best hope in 2020 is holding on to at least one of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

You're right. It's amazing that those states in your first list haven't gone Republican since 2004, and with the way they are trending, they won't for a long time to come. And I think it will be very difficult for Trump to win Pennsylvania in 2020, given that both Casey and Wolf won by double digits, and that Democrats made House gains there. The Philadelphia suburbs, I believe, will cancel out the rural and working-class counties Trump relied upon last time, if the Democratic nominee of 2020 can replicate this year's performance in them.

Didn't Nevada actually trend republican twice?

In 2012 and 2016, I believe. Obama went from winning the state by 13 points in 2008 to winning it by 6 in 2012, and Clinton won by only 2 in 2016. However, that trend seems to have reversed, as Rosen defeated Heller by 5 this year, and Sisolak won by 4.

But the generic ballot was D+7. Im definetely not gonna believe NEvada polls anymore but I don't think Nevada is at Virginia or Colorado levels of Safeness yet although its close.

[Calthrina950]

If it wasn't clear enough after 2016, it should be very clear now that under normal conditions, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia are gone for Republicans. Trump's best hope in 2020 is holding on to at least one of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

You're right. It's amazing that those states in your first list haven't gone Republican since 2004, and with the way they are trending, they won't for a long time to come. And I think it will be very difficult for Trump to win Pennsylvania in 2020, given that both Casey and Wolf won by double digits, and that Democrats made House gains there. The Philadelphia suburbs, I believe, will cancel out the rural and working-class counties Trump relied upon last time, if the Democratic nominee of 2020 can replicate this year's performance in them.

Didn't Nevada actually trend republican twice?

In 2012 and 2016, I believe. Obama went from winning the state by 13 points in 2008 to winning it by 6 in 2012, and Clinton won by only 2 in 2016. However, that trend seems to have reversed, as Rosen defeated Heller by 5 this year, and Sisolak won by 4.

But the generic ballot was D+7. Im definetely not gonna believe NEvada polls anymore but I don't think Nevada is at Virginia or Colorado levels of Safeness yet although its close.

No, it is not. Nevada and Colorado are both Lean to Likely Democratic, in my opinion. But I think that by about 2024 or so, both will be falling into the Safe Democratic category, if current trends continue.

[Politician]

At every level except the gubernatorial level, yes. A Republican winning the governorship wouldn't be that surprising though if Trump loses in 2020.

[wbrocks67]

Pennsylvania will be interesting. I think someone mentioned it, but if the suburbs give Dems margins like 2018, or anything close, that will likely cancel out the massive rural gains. HRC won Montgomery County, for example, by 20 and just barely lost stateside. Casey and Wolf won it by 33-36. That would've given Clinton a 1-2 pt win at least.

[wbrocks67]

2020 will also be interesting because Dems will actually have a real chance in AZ (and GA).

They should learn from HRC's mistakes though and basically solely focus on WI, MI and PA to make sure those are assured.

[cg41386]

Likely Dem state bordering on Safe. Like, its really close to safe status, especially if Dems flip both legislatures.

[cg41386]

Pennsylvania will be interesting. I think someone mentioned it, but if the suburbs give Dems margins like 2018, or anything close, that will likely cancel out the massive rural gains. HRC won Montgomery County, for example, by 20 and just barely lost stateside. Casey and Wolf won it by 33-36. That would've given Clinton a 1-2 pt win at least.

Casey and Wolf both won back Erie and Northampton, and both counties went to their respective Democratic congressional candidates. Luzerne might be gone for a bit.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump can't win without it, and Iowa trended Dem as well. The GOP is locked out of EC.

[wbrocks67]

Is Kim Reynolds really that well liked? Her 3pt margin was way worse that Trump's 9pt margin, and obviously Dems made major gains in the House. So what happened with Kim + Hubbel?

[MillennialModerate]

No, not safe. But it’s a Likely D state.

Would need a very unpopular D canidate, a popular R and in a R year ... for it to go Red

[Ljube]

Yes, absolutely. It has been since 2008.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Likely D. Trump would have an easier time winning Minnesota.

[South Dakota Democrat]

If it wasn't clear enough after 2016, it should be very clear now that under normal conditions, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia are gone for Republicans. Trump's best hope in 2020 is holding on to at least one of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

You're right. It's amazing that those states in your first list haven't gone Republican since 2004, and with the way they are trending, they won't for a long time to come. And I think it will be very difficult for Trump to win Pennsylvania in 2020, given that both Casey and Wolf won by double digits, and that Democrats made House gains there. The Philadelphia suburbs, I believe, will cancel out the rural and working-class counties Trump relied upon last time, if the Democratic nominee of 2020 can replicate this year's performance in them.

Didn't Nevada actually trend republican twice?

In 2012 and 2016, I believe. Obama went from winning the state by 13 points in 2008 to winning it by 6 in 2012, and Clinton won by only 2 in 2016. However, that trend seems to have reversed, as Rosen defeated Heller by 5 this year, and Sisolak won by 4.

But the generic ballot was D+7. Im definetely not gonna believe NEvada polls anymore but I don't think Nevada is at Virginia or Colorado levels of Safeness yet although its close.

No, it is not. Nevada and Colorado are both Lean to Likely Democratic, in my opinion. But I think that by about 2024 or so, both will be falling into the Safe Democratic category, if current trends continue.

He didn't mean Nevada is close.  He meant it's close to being as safe as Colorado or Virginia.

[DC Al Fine]

No, not safe. But it’s a Likely D state.

Would need a very unpopular D canidate, a popular R and in a R year ... for it to go Red

[DINGO Joe]

The formerly Republican counties that existed between NOVA, Charlottesville and Richmond triangle and used to elect people with ridiculously pompous names like T. Euphonius Blubbergut are getting squeezed hard and will ultimately capitulate.  Stafford fell to the Ds and it's pretty obvious how far NOVA goes into Spotsylvania now

https://www.vpap.org/electionresults/20181106/election-9736/locality-spotsylvania-county-va/

After Spotsylvania, Goochland, Fauquier, Culpepper, and Orange will capitulate and NOVA will have achieved it's destiny as SuperNOVA.

[President Johnson]

Trump can't win without it, and Iowa trended Dem as well. The GOP is locked out of EC.

How did he win in 2016? Did I miss something here? Also: LOL @ GOP being locked out. People were saying this pre-2016 as well. We know how this ended. With 306.

[Yank2133]

2012 was the last chance the GOP had to win VA in a presidential election. So yeah, it is safe D at this point.