Opinion of the situation in Costa Rica (explained inside)

[Peanut]

In April this year, center-left candidate Carlos Alvarado was elected in a landslide against far-right evangelical singer Fabricio Alvarado. Since then, he has become historically unpopular, for a variety of reasons. His administration's priority has been passing a "Reforma Fiscal": a huge overhaul to the country's tax system that raises taxes on... well, just about everything and ALSO cuts government spending considerably. This made basically everyone furious, and a HUGE strike has been going on for months that shows no signs of stopping, as unions loudly protest the bill. The bill is supported by the most centrist voices: center-right Chief of Staff Rodolfo Piza is a main supporter, but is viciously opposed by... everyone else, for hugely varying reasons. The leftist Member of Parliament José María Villalta (hero of the Costa Rican left) criticizes it for the spending cuts. The MPs of Fabricio Alvarado's party (National Restoration) oppose it because their purpose and the reason of their existence is just opposing everything Carlos does, GOP-style. The Libertarian bloc opposes it for the tax hikes. The bill was passed in Parliament in a tight vote by an incredibly weird coalition of both Carlos's party and the main opposition, the National Liberation and Christian Social Unity Party, only for the Supreme Court to declare it unconstitutional in a controversial ruling. The strike, which has resulted in a shutdown of services lile education, is not stopping. Corruption scandals are plaguing the Vice-President Epsy Campbell (though personally, I find those to be VERY politically motivated.) To top it all off, the 2020 midterms are on the horizon, when all 81 Cantonal (the administrative subdivisions of Costa Rica) governments will be up for grabs, when the President's party is expected to take a beating, but with no-one knowing if the far-left, far-right, or centre-right will surge.

So, Costa Rica does NOT have boring politics. Some parts of it make the US look positively tame (looking at you, Fabricio Alvarado's campaign methods.)

So, after that quick rundown, and in the context of one of the most modern, politically stable country in Latin America, what do you think?

[Mike88]

Interesting. It has a lot of similarities with what happened in Portugal during the bailout years (2011-14): a government that passed policies that were struck down by the Constitutional Court, a lot of strikes and protests, a divided opposition between those who loathe the government and will block it at any time and those who want to help the government. Not to mention the corruption scandals...

I assume the PRN is benefiting from the crisis in the country? Also, how strong is PAC in local governments? Looking at the results from the 2016 local elections, PAC placed 3rd while PLN and PUSC placed 1st and 2nd, respectively. If PUSC is also supporting Alvarado, could this mean that PRN will steal a lot of mayors and seats from them?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is Fabrico's party as much of a Trainwreck as it was during the elections?

I guess I hope Frente Amplio returns? Especially given the number of deranged people that could run (like that mad idioot Juan Castro).

[Peanut]

To answer both comments, I think PRN is done for 2020 and 2022. They're such a big trainwreck with so much infighting, and without Fabricio no clear ideology except opposing Carlos, I can't see them winning a lot of Cantons in 2020 (maybe a few conservative ones in the most conservative province, Limón.) The two main crazies from the election, Castro and F. Alvarado, don't have much of a base left (especially Castro.) While PAC will undoubtedly lose some of their mayoralties in 2020 (heck, maybe even holding only Montes de Oca, which is their strongest region since it is an ultraliberal, sandals-wearing, kale-eating, boba-drinking, hippie-fied college town,) it's not clear who will stand to benefit the most. Gun to my head, I'd guess PUSC comes back strong in 2020 and 2022, as the wealthy suburbs that supported Carlos this year trend away from his party, but it's far from clear. Regarding the far-right, it is clear that they will coalesce upon a candidate in 2022, but I doubt it will be F. Alvarado again. He's lost far too much goodwill among them. I think the far-right in 2022 will be someone like Castro (who focused on anti-immigrant populism, instead of the evangelical fundamentalist campaign F. Alvarado ran), the left coalesces around Villalta (who is actually really good) while the center and center right rally around a candidate like Piza and PUSC(the classic socially liberal, economically conservative). PLN, once the strongest party, will continue to fall as their old base dies off (think West Virginia Democrats) and C. Alvarado's party, with the way things are going, will hemorrhage a lot of support to the left.