Current (Nov 2018) battleground map

[RaphaelDLG]

- I don’t see how you can justify GA being less competitive than FL at this point.

An attempt:  Florida just allowed 1.5 million felons to vote and no democrat has won Georgia statewide in like three decades.

I'd put Florida at Tilt R Tossup and Georgia as Lean R

[IceSpear]

D 228
R 219

I'm trying not to overreact too much to the midterms, but I think they did show some interesting trends which have to be taken into account here.

Would agree with most of this, except FL should be Leans R. If we couldn't win what should've been decent wins in FL-Gov and FL-Sen in a supposed wave year, then this state is not really accurately described as a swing state. And Kansas is still Safe R.

Couldn't you say the same thing about PA then? Sure it was a Dem wave, but the GOP has no excuse for getting BTFO that badly.

[ElectionsGuy]

Safe Trump: 126
Likely Trump: 62
Lean Trump: 43
Toss-Up: 79
Lean Dem: 18
Likely Dem: 22
Safe Dem: 188

[Figueira]

The map is overall pretty good for Democrats, because Trump has very few opportunities to expand on his previous map.

[RaphaelDLG]

Safe = no chance it will be competitive
Likely = probably won't be very competitive
Lean = will be competitive, but one side has a clear advantage

WI, NH, and PA tilt D, FL tilts R

[Orser67]

- I don’t see how you can justify GA being less competitive than FL at this point.

An attempt:  Florida just allowed 1.5 million felons to vote and no democrat has won Georgia statewide in like three decades.

Also, Trump's winning margin in Florida was just 1.2%, while his margin in Georgia was 5.2%. That's a lot of ground to make up in just four years.

[USO2019PB]

[Inmate Trump]

[lfromnj]

D 228
R 219

I'm trying not to overreact too much to the midterms, but I think they did show some interesting trends which have to be taken into account here.

More or less agree with a couple of moves
Id switch Michigan and PA personally
Move Iowa to Lean R. its closer to likely than tossup but its not as lost as Ohio yet and move Kansas to Solid R although I wouldn't be shocked by a relatively narrow margin in it and the dems winning the senate seat if its 1980 but in reverse.

[ScottieF]

D 232, R 213

If things stay on track, 2020 will be fought in the trenches. But given the value of the states currently leaning in one direction, Trump has much further to fall if things turn against him (recession, war) than the Dem nominee does if things improve for Trump

[pbrower2a]

The cumulative House vote for all states except Florida as a predictor of the Presidency. ME-02 is still undecided, so I am treating it as a tossup. Republicans won all three House seats in Nebraska, so I am going with those as percentages.

I'm going to give a wild guess that the District of Columbia votes strongly against Trump.  North Carolina may be worse than shown for Trump when one considers that there was no gubernatorial or Senate race this year.

See the link in another thread for justification.

Maine 1 is in the southwestern part of the state and Maine 2 is all else.
Nebraska districts are shown 1, 2, and 3 left to right even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2.


Trump edge:

dark blue 10% or more (really dark for 40% or more)
middle blue 5-9%
pale blue under 5%
effective tie (1% either way, both approval and disapproval under 50%)
pink under 5%, but disapproval 50% or higher or at least 1%
red 5-10%
dark red 10% or more (really dark for 40% or more)

[Former President tack50]

My guess as of now:



MI, WI, PA all tilt D if you don't want tossups. AZ, NE-02 and ME-02 all tilt R

UT is only likely R just in case there's some sort of strong third party candidate. In a straight D vs R scenario it's safe R

[Cashew]

Florida, the land of perpetual disappointment...

[Dr. Arch]

This is how I see the race right now against a neutral-ish Democrat in terms of charisma, and I don't think much will change barring a great recruit by Democrats.

Some notes: GA to the left of NC, TX to the left of OH, MI to the left of PA, AZ to the left of IA. A great recruit like Beto can move most of these states a shade to the left, and a deficient one a shade to the right.

I believe 2024 will be a decided on a completely different map.

CO is almost gone for Republicans. VA is gone. NV is almost gone as well. AZ, TX, and GA are slipping away. NC will be like GA in 2024 or 2028.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Something like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Florida as the tossups and New Hampshire, Iowa, Minnesota, North Carolina and Nevada a tier up from that.

[CookieDamage]

D 228
R 219

I'm trying not to overreact too much to the midterms, but I think they did show some interesting trends which have to be taken into account here.

What trends are you seeing in Kansas?

[CookieDamage]

Anyways

>90% Safe
>70% Likely
>50% Leans
>30% Tilts
>Green: True Tossup

No tossups

[SunSt0rm]

[DabbingSanta]

Dem: 248
Rep: 204
Tossup: 86

Gun to my head...
AZ: tilt R
WI: tilt D
PA: tilt D
NC: tilt R
FL: tilt R

Changes in ratings:
IA:  Likely R -> Lean R

[Politician]

Changes:
Alaska: Likely R->Safe R
Arizona: Lean R->Tossup
Kansas: Likely R->Safe R
New Hampshire: Likely D->Lean D
Ohio: Lean R->Likely R
Pennsylvania: Tossup->Lean D
South Carolina: Likely R->Safe R
Virginia: Likely D->Safe D

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Kansas is only likely R if someone like Sanders or Ojeda runs. Otherwise not so much.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Kansas is only likely R if someone like Sanders or Ojeda runs. Otherwise not so much.

Let's not be ridiculous, it would still be safe R.

[Technocracy Timmy]

- I think people are REALLY reading way too much into KS-GOV. Sure, Kelly won a gubernatorial race against one of the worst Republican candidates in the country in a state where the outgoing Republican governor is terribly unpopular, but that doesn’t mean Democrats are now magically competitive in every race, even at the federal level.

This honestly baffles me as well. Kansas came within 5 points of electing a Democratic Governor in the 2014 GOP wave and still voted for Trump by 20-21 points two years later (a bigger margin win than what he got in MO, IN, and LA).

It’s safe R barring a massive recession. If that’s the case then it might be likely R.

[Orser67]

- I think people are REALLY reading way too much into KS-GOV. Sure, Kelly won a gubernatorial race against one of the worst Republican candidates in the country in a state where the outgoing Republican governor is terribly unpopular, but that doesn’t mean Democrats are now magically competitive in every race, even at the federal level.

This honestly baffles me as well. Kansas came within 5 points of electing a Democratic Governor in the 2014 GOP wave and still voted for Trump by 20-21 points two years later (a bigger margin win than what he got in MO, IN, and LA).

It’s safe R barring a massive recession. If that’s the case then it might be likely R.

I'm also baffled; KS is Safe R. Iirc some people also thought LA would be competitive in 2016 after John Bel Edwards won in 2015.

[White Trash]

- I think people are REALLY reading way too much into KS-GOV. Sure, Kelly won a gubernatorial race against one of the worst Republican candidates in the country in a state where the outgoing Republican governor is terribly unpopular, but that doesn’t mean Democrats are now magically competitive in every race, even at the federal level.

This honestly baffles me as well. Kansas came within 5 points of electing a Democratic Governor in the 2014 GOP wave and still voted for Trump by 20-21 points two years later (a bigger margin win than what he got in MO, IN, and LA).

It’s safe R barring a massive recession. If that’s the case then it might be likely R.

I'm also baffled; KS is Safe R. Iirc some people also thought LA would be competitive in 2016 after John Bel Edwards won in 2015.

I'm an open and avowed JBE hack, but even I know Louisiana is unwinnable for the current party situation.