Thoughts about the results in Colorado?

[Figueira]

Hopefully we can get someone in Colorado who is (1) reliably progressive, and (2) a potential President. Joe Neguse seems like a decent option to me.

[DaWN]

Why do I get the unshakeable feeling that Gardner is going to be a new Heller for this forum and the Twitterverse (He's a strong INCUMBENT!!! He can't possibly lose even in a great year for Democra- oh he's lost easily)

[Figueira]

Why do I get the unshakeable feeling that Gardner is going to be a new Heller for this forum and the Twitterverse (He's a strong INCUMBENT!!! He can't possibly lose even in a great year for Democra- oh he's lost easily)

It's a lot harder to argue that Colorado is still a swing state than (pre-2018) Nevada.

[IceSpear]

Why do I get the unshakeable feeling that Gardner is going to be a new Heller for this forum and the Twitterverse (He's a strong INCUMBENT!!! He can't possibly lose even in a great year for Democra- oh he's lost easily)

Gardner is much more likely to survive than Heller (not saying much) simply because we don't know what the political environment will be like in 2020. It was already obvious after Virginia, Alabama, PA-18, AZ-08, OH-12, etc. that 2018 was going to be at minimum a decent year for the Democrats, which meant Heller was DOA. Of course people thought he could somehow survive despite this because they are stupid.

[Calthrina950]

Why do I get the unshakeable feeling that Gardner is going to be a new Heller for this forum and the Twitterverse (He's a strong INCUMBENT!!! He can't possibly lose even in a great year for Democra- oh he's lost easily)

Gardner is much more likely to survive than Heller (not saying much) simply because we don't know what the political environment will be like in 2020. It was already obvious after Virginia, Alabama, PA-18, AZ-08, OH-12, etc. that 2018 was going to be at minimum a decent year for the Democrats, which meant Heller was DOA. Of course people thought he could somehow survive despite this because they are stupid.

How is Gardner going to overcome those alarming numbers in the Denver metropolitan area, Boulder, and Fort Collins? He didn't win any of the Denver suburban counties last time, and he only carried Larimer County narrowly. Those counties, as this year demonstrated, have slipped further away from the Republicans.

[IceSpear]

Why do I get the unshakeable feeling that Gardner is going to be a new Heller for this forum and the Twitterverse (He's a strong INCUMBENT!!! He can't possibly lose even in a great year for Democra- oh he's lost easily)

Gardner is much more likely to survive than Heller (not saying much) simply because we don't know what the political environment will be like in 2020. It was already obvious after Virginia, Alabama, PA-18, AZ-08, OH-12, etc. that 2018 was going to be at minimum a decent year for the Democrats, which meant Heller was DOA. Of course people thought he could somehow survive despite this because they are stupid.

How is Gardner going to overcome those alarming numbers in the Denver metropolitan area, Boulder, and Fort Collins? He didn't win any of the Denver suburban counties last time, and he only carried Larimer County narrowly. Those counties, as this year demonstrated, have slipped further away from the Republicans.

If there's a red wave and/or he faces a weak opponent.

[Calthrina950]

Why do I get the unshakeable feeling that Gardner is going to be a new Heller for this forum and the Twitterverse (He's a strong INCUMBENT!!! He can't possibly lose even in a great year for Democra- oh he's lost easily)

Gardner is much more likely to survive than Heller (not saying much) simply because we don't know what the political environment will be like in 2020. It was already obvious after Virginia, Alabama, PA-18, AZ-08, OH-12, etc. that 2018 was going to be at minimum a decent year for the Democrats, which meant Heller was DOA. Of course people thought he could somehow survive despite this because they are stupid.

How is Gardner going to overcome those alarming numbers in the Denver metropolitan area, Boulder, and Fort Collins? He didn't win any of the Denver suburban counties last time, and he only carried Larimer County narrowly. Those counties, as this year demonstrated, have slipped further away from the Republicans.

If there's a red wave and/or he faces a weak opponent.

We'll have to see about that. I definitely do not believe that the Democrats will let Gardner off easy in 2020. They will make sure to find a strong candidate to run against him. And the Denver suburbs continue to trend Democratic, and I doubt Gardner will do as well in them as he did in 2014.

[Calthrina950]

According to the Fox News exit polls (https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?), Polis won white voters over Stapleton by 2 points (49-47%) and nonwhite voters by 44 points (70-26%). He carried white women by 12 points (54-42%), while Stapleton won white men by 6 points (51-45%). Polis won every age group except for those 45-64, and decisively carried (of course), college-educated voters, white and nonwhite. Overall, he won 53-43% (53.44-42.79% to be precise).

[completely dead account]

Nice to know they elected a gay guy. Hopefully Bennet will keep his seat in the future.

[fluffypanther19]

yeah gardner looks like hes screwed.

[completely dead account]

CO elected a gay Democrat to the Governor seat by a margin of 9.6 points. Looks like the political climate of CO is changing. No longer is it really a swing state.

Gardner still stands  a decent chance of re-election due to incumbency status but he better watch out, especially since he's not as moderate as most CO voters would've liked him to be.

[scutosaurus]

CO elected a gay Democrat to the Governor seat by a margin of 9.6 points. Looks like the political climate of CO is changing. No longer is it really a swing state.

Gardner still stands  a decent chance of re-election due to incumbency status but he better watch out, especially since he's not as moderate as most CO voters would've liked him to be.

Polis won by 10 points. Crow won by 11.

Democrats control both houses of the state legislature

Democrats control every statewide office in Colorado.

Democrats control the entire state for the first time since the FDR presidency.

I don't see what more it'll take for people to understand that what I've been saying is true: Colorado is a Safe D state, and Cory Gardner (who has a ~20% approval rating) is DOA.

[pppolitics]

RIP Cory Gardner

[Calthrina950]

CO elected a gay Democrat to the Governor seat by a margin of 9.6 points. Looks like the political climate of CO is changing. No longer is it really a swing state.

Gardner still stands  a decent chance of re-election due to incumbency status but he better watch out, especially since he's not as moderate as most CO voters would've liked him to be.

Polis won by 10 points. Crow won by 11.

Democrats control both houses of the state legislature

Democrats control every statewide office in Colorado.

Democrats control the entire state for the first time since the FDR presidency.

I don't see what more it'll take for people to understand that what I've been saying is true: Colorado is a Safe D state, and Cory Gardner (who has a ~20% approval rating) is DOA.

It's definitely clear to me that Trump has no chance at all in Colorado in 2020, and he will probably lose the state by high single digits, at the very least. But I still want to wait at least one or two more cycles before declaring Colorado a Safe Democratic state for good.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Hopefully we can get someone in Colorado who is (1) reliably progressive, and (2) a potential President. Joe Neguse seems like a decent option to me.

Neguse was born in Africa so no Presidency for him. Given the direction the state is heading I can see him holding statewide office in eight years or so though.

[Boobs]

Hopefully we can get someone in Colorado who is (1) reliably progressive, and (2) a potential President. Joe Neguse seems like a decent option to me.

Neguse was born in Africa so no Presidency for him. Given the direction the state is heading I can see him holding statewide office in eight years or so though.

Wikipedia says he was born in Bakersfield, which, while a third-world country, is still in the United States. His parents are both immigrants from Eritrea, though.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Hopefully we can get someone in Colorado who is (1) reliably progressive, and (2) a potential President. Joe Neguse seems like a decent option to me.

Neguse was born in Africa so no Presidency for him. Given the direction the state is heading I can see him holding statewide office in eight years or so though.

Wikipedia says he was born in Bakersfield, which, while a third-world country, is still in the United States. His parents are both immigrants from Eritrea, though.

Oh shit you're totally right. He's my new congressman and I'm not sure how I missed that... Supes embarrassing!

[MT Treasurer]

While I agree with most others here that CO is still more competitive than VA, it’s easy to forget just how ugly the trends are for Gardner/Republicans in this state, especially in the most populous counties that will actually decide the election:

County: 2014 results -- 2016 results -- 2018 results

Denver County: DEM +46  --  DEM +55  -- DEM +57
Boulder County: DEM +42 -- DEM +48 -- DEM +54

El Paso County: GOP +30 -- GOP +22 -- GOP +16
Weld County: GOP +27 -- GOP +23 -- GOP +21
Mesa County: GOP +41 -- GOP +36 -- GOP +26

Adams County: DEM +3  --  DEM +9 -- DEM +14
Arapahoe County: DEM +2 -- DEM +14 -- DEM +18
Jefferson County: DEM +<1 -- DEM +7 -- DEM +13

And when you consider that (1) Gardner only won by 2 in a GOP wave year, (2) population growth, generational turnover, and migration will likely make most of these counties (particularly Denver/the Denver suburbs, i.e. Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson) even more Democratic-friendly in two years, (3) even then he will need to hold his own in the more rural/Hispanic Southern part of the state, (4) he will have to contend with increasing polarization and sharing the ballot with Trump, and (5) that he will likely face a much stronger opponent than Udall, yeah... the fat lady hasn’t sung yet, but she’s sure getting warmed up.

Clearly a Lean R race@Cook.

[PragmaticPopulist]

There weren't really any surprises in Colorado this cycle. Trends there are brutal for Republicans, considering it's one of the best-educated states in the country. Gardner is the Republicans' last man standing there, and he's in for a very tough reelection in 2020.

The only race that was somewhat of a surprise was the Secretary of State Race, where Wayne Williams was ousted. Even then, it wasn't that big a surprise.

[Calthrina950]

There's a few other observations I would like to make. Jena Griswold was the only statewide Democrat to win Conejos and Las Animas Counties in Southern Colorado this year. Every other statewide winner-Polis, Young, Weiser, and Smith-lost those counties. However, Jared Polis was the only statewide Democrat to win Garfield County this year. Moreover, all five statewide Democrats won Chaffee County, Huerfano County, and Pueblo County, which Trump had carried in 2016. Besides Garfield, Las Animas, and Conejos, all other counties voted the same for all races.

[Calthrina950]

There weren't really any surprises in Colorado this cycle. Trends there are brutal for Republicans, considering it's one of the best-educated states in the country. Gardner is the Republicans' last man standing there, and he's in for a very tough reelection in 2020.

The only race that was somewhat of a surprise was the Secretary of State Race, where Wayne Williams was ousted. Even then, it wasn't that big a surprise.

Williams ended up losing by eight percentage points. Griswold got the second highest percentage of any statewide Democrat behind Polis. Even George Brauchler lost to Phil Weiser by six percentage points. Dave Young won by six, and Lesley Smith won by nine (second-largest margin of victory after Polis).

[MAINEiac4434]

I really like Neguse, so I hope he runs for Senate. But it’ll probably be Hickenlooper (after a vanity Presidential campaign inevitably flames out) or Perlmutter (who wanted to be Governor but stepped aside for Polis).

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I really like Neguse, so I hope he runs for Senate. But it’ll probably be Hickenlooper (after a vanity Presidential campaign inevitably flames out) or Perlmutter (who wanted to be Governor but stepped aside for Polis).

Perlmutter hitched his wagon onto the anti-Pelosi movement last month. Definitely sounds like someone trying to mount a Seth Moulton-type outsider Senate bid.

I'm curious to see how much Hickenlooper tracks left in a Senate bid. Dude definitely isn't a progressive hero, that's for sure.

[Lechasseur]

CO elected a gay Democrat to the Governor seat by a margin of 9.6 points. Looks like the political climate of CO is changing. No longer is it really a swing state.

Gardner still stands  a decent chance of re-election due to incumbency status but he better watch out, especially since he's not as moderate as most CO voters would've liked him to be.

Polis won by 10 points. Crow won by 11.

Democrats control both houses of the state legislature

Democrats control every statewide office in Colorado.

Democrats control the entire state for the first time since the FDR presidency.

I don't see what more it'll take for people to understand that what I've been saying is true: Colorado is a Safe D state, and Cory Gardner (who has a ~20% approval rating) is DOA.

I totally agree with you

[MAINEiac4434]

I really like Neguse, so I hope he runs for Senate. But it’ll probably be Hickenlooper (after a vanity Presidential campaign inevitably flames out) or Perlmutter (who wanted to be Governor but stepped aside for Polis).

Perlmutter hitched his wagon onto the anti-Pelosi movement last month. Definitely sounds like someone trying to mount a Seth Moulton-type outsider Senate bid.

I'm curious to see how much Hickenlooper tracks left in a Senate bid. Dude definitely isn't a progressive hero, that's for sure.

Yeah I’m not enamored with either of them which is why I’d like Neguse to go for it. Cary Kennedy would be pretty good too.