Is there a Bradley Effect going on in FL?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 28, 2024, 12:37:45 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Is there a Bradley Effect going on in FL?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: Is there?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 71

Author Topic: Is there a Bradley Effect going on in FL?  (Read 1548 times)
Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,639
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 02, 2018, 11:01:50 AM »

Do you agree with Sanchez that the Bradley Effect is the cause of Gillum's lead?
Logged
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,030
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2018, 11:17:53 AM »

No, because the Bradley Effect doesn't exist. It didn't exist in 2012, or 2008...or even in 1982, where the last poll showed Bradley +1. The claims that Bradley "led by double digits" in the 1982 CA Gubernatorial election are referring to polls months before. The idea the Bradley Effect ever existed is based on intellectual dishonesty.
Logged
An American Tail: Fubart Goes West
Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,731
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2018, 11:25:35 AM »

Something is weird with the Florida polls, but I don’t know what. Herding maybe?
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,671
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2018, 11:28:04 AM »

No, because something real is going on with Latinos and Blacks. That Hillary was looking for in 2016, turnout among these ethnic groups will help Pelosi win FL and win the House in 2018
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2018, 11:47:35 AM »

No, because the Bradley Effect doesn't exist. It didn't exist in 2012, or 2008...or even in 1982, where the last poll showed Bradley +1. The claims that Bradley "led by double digits" in the 1982 CA Gubernatorial election are referring to polls months before. The idea the Bradley Effect ever existed is based on intellectual dishonesty.
Logged
Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,188
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2018, 11:49:03 AM »

No, because the Bradley Effect doesn't exist. It didn't exist in 2012, or 2008...or even in 1982, where the last poll showed Bradley +1. The claims that Bradley "led by double digits" in the 1982 CA Gubernatorial election are referring to polls months before. The idea the Bradley Effect ever existed is based on intellectual dishonesty.
Logged
RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,247
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2018, 12:22:08 PM »

No, because the Bradley Effect doesn't exist. It didn't exist in 2012, or 2008...or even in 1982, where the last poll showed Bradley +1. The claims that Bradley "led by double digits" in the 1982 CA Gubernatorial election are referring to polls months before. The idea the Bradley Effect ever existed is based on intellectual dishonesty.
Logged
Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,030


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2018, 12:42:08 PM »

Didn't happen with Obama...in this very state. Why would it happen now?
Logged
Atlas Force
mlee117379
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,304
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2018, 12:57:44 PM »

No, because the Bradley Effect doesn't exist. It didn't exist in 2012, or 2008...or even in 1982, where the last poll showed Bradley +1. The claims that Bradley "led by double digits" in the 1982 CA Gubernatorial election are referring to polls months before. The idea the Bradley Effect ever existed is based on intellectual dishonesty.
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,616
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2018, 08:20:34 PM »

Even if the Bradley effect did exist (it doesn't, see above) you can't prove it's happening until after DeSantis wins.
Logged
bestgtor22
Newbie
*
Posts: 6


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2018, 07:40:42 AM »

They might try to call it a Bradley effect but I think its more likely many of these polls are using faulty assumptions or are guessing wrong on the breakdown of the vote some way.
Logged
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,778


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2018, 10:30:17 AM »

It is actually possible for a pollster to test for the Bradley effect/social desirability bias. They never do, though.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,166
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2018, 12:40:54 PM »

lol
Logged
Lourdes
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,809
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2018, 12:49:59 PM »

No, because the Bradley Effect doesn't exist. It didn't exist in 2012, or 2008...or even in 1982, where the last poll showed Bradley +1. The claims that Bradley "led by double digits" in the 1982 CA Gubernatorial election are referring to polls months before. The idea the Bradley Effect ever existed is based on intellectual dishonesty.
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,667
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2018, 02:15:06 PM »

Even if the Bradley effect did exist (it doesn't, see above) you can't prove it's happening until after DeSantis wins.

Even then, that's still blaming the ice cream on the many rapes. (Correlation and causation are separate) In this case, I really can't think of any other variables.
Logged
JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,535
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2018, 02:25:09 PM »

The answer to any statment that he makes is no, its always made in either bad faith or downright dishonesty.
Logged
AudmanOut
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,122
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2018, 04:31:11 AM »

No, because the Bradley Effect doesn't exist. It didn't exist in 2012, or 2008...or even in 1982, where the last poll showed Bradley +1. The claims that Bradley "led by double digits" in the 1982 CA Gubernatorial election are referring to polls months before. The idea the Bradley Effect ever existed is based on intellectual dishonesty.
Logged
Indy Texas
independentTX
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,268
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: -3.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2018, 02:04:01 PM »

Pretty much everything that has happened in America for the past three years suggests people do not feel any need to hide their racism.
Logged
#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2018, 02:21:12 PM »

No, because the Bradley Effect doesn't exist. It didn't exist in 2012, or 2008...or even in 1982, where the last poll showed Bradley +1. The claims that Bradley "led by double digits" in the 1982 CA Gubernatorial election are referring to polls months before. The idea the Bradley Effect ever existed is based on intellectual dishonesty.
Logged
Atlas Has Shrugged
ChairmanSanchez
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 38,095
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.29, S: -5.04


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: November 07, 2018, 08:07:07 PM »

Told ya.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.235 seconds with 14 queries.