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« Reply #1650 on: March 02, 2023, 09:07:54 AM »

I wonder if the following matter has already been broached: If the grand coalition is brought into being, the CDU will gain a majority in the Bundesrat.
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DL
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« Reply #1651 on: March 02, 2023, 11:19:47 AM »

I wonder if the following matter has already been broached: If the grand coalition is brought into being, the CDU will gain a majority in the Bundesrat.

I'm not so sure about that. I thought that when coalitions are formed - especially grand coalitions - the state's delegation to the Bundesrat becomes "neutral"
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« Reply #1652 on: March 02, 2023, 11:42:03 AM »

I wonder if the following matter has already been broached: If the grand coalition is brought into being, the CDU will gain a majority in the Bundesrat.

I'm not so sure about that. I thought that when coalitions are formed - especially grand coalitions - the state's delegation to the Bundesrat becomes "neutral"

That may be formally true, but in reality state parties usually toe the federal party line. Keep in mind that a bill subject to approval by the Bundesrat needs a majority of votes to get passed; as a consequence, an abstention of a Bundesland is considered a de-facto nay.
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DL
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« Reply #1653 on: March 02, 2023, 12:01:28 PM »

Yes but when a state government is a coalition (which it almost always is) doesnt that mean that the state delegation to the Bundesrat is mixed - in other words if there was a CDU-SPD coalition in Berlin and Berlin had 5 Bundesrat members - it would send 3 CDU and 2 SPD members or something like that.
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Logical
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« Reply #1654 on: March 02, 2023, 12:15:51 PM »

Yes but when a state government is a coalition (which it almost always is) doesnt that mean that the state delegation to the Bundesrat is mixed - in other words if there was a CDU-SPD coalition in Berlin and Berlin had 5 Bundesrat members - it would send 3 CDU and 2 SPD members or something like that.
State delegations to the Bundesrat must vote as one as they represent the state government, not individual parties.
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« Reply #1655 on: March 02, 2023, 02:56:19 PM »

Yes but when a state government is a coalition (which it almost always is) doesnt that mean that the state delegation to the Bundesrat is mixed - in other words if there was a CDU-SPD coalition in Berlin and Berlin had 5 Bundesrat members - it would send 3 CDU and 2 SPD members or something like that.

What Logial said.
Plus, each Bundesland is allocated between three and six Bundesrat seats; Berlin has four.



There was an incident, I think even a precedent, in 2002, when Brandenburg's Interior Minister Jörg Schönbohm (CDU) voted against the liberal Migration Act, whereas his Governor Manfred Stolpe (SPD) voted in favor of it. Bundesrat President Klaus Wowereit (SPD) interpreted those divergent votings as an aye and assigned all of Brandenburg's four votes to the approval of the bill, which led to the passing of the same. The Federal Constitutional Court later quashed Wowereit's improper mode of procedure and therefore declared the passing of the Migration Act null and void.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1656 on: March 02, 2023, 02:59:13 PM »

Yes but when a state government is a coalition (which it almost always is) doesnt that mean that the state delegation to the Bundesrat is mixed - in other words if there was a CDU-SPD coalition in Berlin and Berlin had 5 Bundesrat members - it would send 3 CDU and 2 SPD members or something like that.
State delegations to the Bundesrat must vote as one as they represent the state government, not individual parties.

Correct.

Somewhat off-topic, but I always considered the Bundesrat some sort of constitutional error. It's in dire need of some reform.
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« Reply #1657 on: March 02, 2023, 03:25:52 PM »

Somewhat off-topic, but I always considered the Bundesrat some sort of constitutional error. It's in dire need of some reform.

Joschka Fischer proposed abolishing the Bundesrat in 2003 at a time when the Merkel CDU obstructed any agenda of the red-green government by misusing the power of that constitutional organ.
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DL
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« Reply #1658 on: March 02, 2023, 03:30:30 PM »

Yes but when a state government is a coalition (which it almost always is) doesnt that mean that the state delegation to the Bundesrat is mixed - in other words if there was a CDU-SPD coalition in Berlin and Berlin had 5 Bundesrat members - it would send 3 CDU and 2 SPD members or something like that.
State delegations to the Bundesrat must vote as one as they represent the state government, not individual parties.

Well then presumably one of the "bargaining chips" the SPD could use in their talks with the CDU would an agreement that Berlin votes in the Bundesrat cannot be used to impede the legislative agenda of the federal government?
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Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #1659 on: March 02, 2023, 03:48:58 PM »
« Edited: March 02, 2023, 04:17:57 PM by Yeahsayyeah »

Yes but when a state government is a coalition (which it almost always is) doesnt that mean that the state delegation to the Bundesrat is mixed - in other words if there was a CDU-SPD coalition in Berlin and Berlin had 5 Bundesrat members - it would send 3 CDU and 2 SPD members or something like that.
State delegations to the Bundesrat must vote as one as they represent the state government, not individual parties.

Well then presumably one of the "bargaining chips" the SPD could use in their talks with the CDU would an agreement that Berlin votes in the Bundesrat cannot be used to impede the legislative agenda of the federal government?

The normal thing in these matters is a solution à la "If our opinions differ, the state delegation in the Bundesrat will abstain". Consequences differ. There are laws that need Bundesrat approval ("Zustimmungsgesetz" and laws that don't, but can be vetoed by a majority decision of the Bundesrat ("Einspruchsgesetz"), but this veto can be overridden by an absolute majority of the Bundestag members.
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« Reply #1660 on: March 02, 2023, 04:12:37 PM »
« Edited: March 02, 2023, 04:18:41 PM by Clarko95 📚💰📈 »

I think there's a good chance a coalition contract with the CDU might be defeated by a membership vote

The district chairs of Mitte, Marzahn-Hellersdorf, Steglitz-Zehlendorf, Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf, Tempelhof-Schöneberg and Neukölln, plus three of the sitting Bundestag representatives have already expressed skeptical to decidedly negative reactions to the GroKo.  

So rejection isn't common just among the "usual suspects". Has a government coalition proposal ever been defeated by a membership vote in Germany?
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1661 on: March 02, 2023, 04:22:36 PM »

Somewhat off-topic, but I always considered the Bundesrat some sort of constitutional error. It's in dire need of some reform.

Joschka Fischer proposed abolishing the Bundesrat in 2003 at a time when the Merkel CDU obstructed any agenda of the red-green government by misusing the power of that constitutional organ.

Wolfgang Schäuble made a similar statement in 2009, when SPD and Greens were blocking some stuff, lmao.
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Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #1662 on: March 02, 2023, 04:25:27 PM »

I totally see why parts of the SPD don't want to continue the R2G-government. I just don't see how Giffey of all people has a mandate to lead them there.

Of course, instead of a "government only for middle-class and well-off people inside the Ringbahn" Berlin would now get a "government only for well-off and petty-bourgeois Frontstadt people of West Berlin" ;-)
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1663 on: March 02, 2023, 04:35:19 PM »

I think there's a good chance a coalition contract with the CDU might be defeated by a membership vote

The district chairs of Mitte, Marzahn-Hellersdorf, Steglitz-Zehlendorf, Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf, Tempelhof-Schöneberg and Neukölln, plus three of the sitting Bundestag representatives have already expressed skeptical to decidedly negative reactions to the GroKo.  

So rejection isn't common just among the "usual suspects". Has a government coalition proposal ever been defeated by a membership vote in Germany?

Not that I remember of. These membership votes are relatively new, though, was that ever done before the famous SPD vote after the 2013 federal election?

I think the CDU will just give SPD enough policy wins that a small majority votes in favor at the end. CDU overall is much more interested in power rather than actual issues. So they have no issue with selling out big time if that is what is necessary to gain power. Also, is there even going to be a membership vote? Giffey could just to ram the coalition agreement through a state party convention rather than holding a membership referendum?
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« Reply #1664 on: March 02, 2023, 04:37:12 PM »

I think there's a good chance a coalition contract with the CDU might be defeated by a membership vote

The district chairs of Mitte, Marzahn-Hellersdorf, Steglitz-Zehlendorf, Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf, Tempelhof-Schöneberg and Neukölln, plus three of the sitting Bundestag representatives have already expressed skeptical to decidedly negative reactions to the GroKo.  

So rejection isn't common just among the "usual suspects". Has a government coalition proposal ever been defeated by a membership vote in Germany?

Not that I remember of. These membership votes are relatively new, though, was that ever done before the famous SPD vote after the 2013 federal election?

I think the CDU will just give SPD enough policy wins that a small majority votes in favor at the end. CDU overall is much more interested in power rather than actual issues. So they have no issue with selling out big time if that is what is necessary to gain power. Also, is there even going to be a membership vote? Giffey could just to ram the coalition agreement through a state party convention rather than holding a membership referendum?

It has been announced already that a membership vote will follow a period of debate after a contract has been released
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« Reply #1665 on: March 06, 2023, 04:29:59 PM »

The timeline for the CDU-SPD negotiations is that the contract will be presented on April 3rd, following by a two-week window for members to vote on the agreement, and then the results are to be announced on April 23rd.


Honestly.....I don't know how I'll vote. Theoretically RRG appeals to me on paper, but it isn't working. So I'll have to see what the contract says.

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« Reply #1666 on: March 10, 2023, 09:29:45 AM »
« Edited: March 17, 2023, 07:56:23 AM by Clarko95 📚💰📈 »

Two updates:


1.) I am not sure how much weight we should give this, but according to exit polling of 17,002 voters on election day by the group, the CDU won the votes of Muslims 27.7% to the SPD's 24.9% (Linke 15.3%, Greens 8.3%, AfD 4.4%). The catch here is that the number of voters who identified as Muslim was rather small, which means sample size issues and a high margin of error. I think it's definitely possible, especially when we look at the demographics of Muslims in Berlin (disproportionately lower-middle class small business owners and self-employed, and also just looking at the election map), but still the MoE is high. Either way, it's indisputable that the CDU absolutely improved in areas with large Muslim and immigrant/-background populations in 2023, despite the whole "first names" debate.

(Source: https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/politik-gesellschaft/abgeordnetenhauswahl-berlin/wiederholungswahl-trotz-silvester-debatte-die-meisten-berliner-muslime-waehlten-cdu-li.324687)


2.) the first rounds of negotiations between the SPD and CDU concluded, and the CDU has agreed to a large number of SPD demands. Like I said several weeks ago, an overlooked development this election is how the CDU moved its platform closer to the SPD. Not sure if this really had an impact on voting, but it clearly has an impact on the negotiations.

Here is what has been agreed to so far:

  • commitment against right-wing extremism, against any form of group-focused enmity and racism
  • set up a dedicated state naturalization center to speed up applications and processing
  • the state anti-discrimination law will be retained and further developed
  • strong focus on administrative reforms and efficiency - will be further negotiated
  • introduction of the voting age at 16; constitutional majorities in parliament are being explored
  • police, fire brigade, judiciary and public prosecutor's office will have full support of the new Senate and should be better equipped
  • more staff for police and first responders
  • body cameras for police officers
  • the findings of Giffey's summit against youth violence are to be implemented
  • so-called language day-care centers ("Sprachkita") are to be continued through a state program
  • establish a compulsory pre-school year in daycare centers
  • continuated focus on construction of new school buildings
  • no tuition fees for education, from daycare to university
  • new construction target of up to 20,000 new apartments per year; regulatory review to speed up permitting and construction process
  • improved tenant protection
  • socialization framework law upon a constitutional recommendation
  • the "traffic turnaround" will continue with more balance for road users as well
  • continue unlimited €29 transit ticket for all and a €9 social ticket
  • new focus on cyclist safety
  • continue goal of purchasing district heating facilities from Vattenfall and GASAG
  • climate-neutral special investment fund will be established
  • focus on renewing Berlin's business environment balanced with creation of good paying jobs
  • the state minimum wage, higher than the federal one, will remain
  • guaranteed accommodation for refugees, exploration of new housing methods
  • new children's hospital

The technical working groups for the nitty-gritty details will work between March 13th and 26th, followed by a wrap-up working group through the 31st.

While the district assemblies of the SPD continue to narrowly vote against a coalition with the CDU, the voter base and broader membership of the SPD is more moderate than the core activists. The debate is starting to take on a factional "left of the SPD vs. the rest"-dynamic, with the left-wing of the party, led by the Jusos, launching a campaign urging a "No" vote, and also launching some very nasty personal attacks against Kai Wegner of the CDU. The left-wing of the SPD wanted a delegates-only vote, which is where they are strongest and Franziska Giffey is weakest, while Giffey got her wish for a broader members vote, where she still finds her support base.

My personal opinion is that the membership vote probably will be close, but also that the Jusos "No" campaign has so far been mostly content-free and instead focused on calling Kai Wegner a far-right coddler, a racist, and a Nazi, and saying how a black-red government would be less progressive than a continuation of RRG (but again, no substantive criticisms are offered). Not sure how effective those attacks will be, and it's hard to understand the Jusos when they say a CDU-SPD government will be a right-wing, regressive coalition when the actual policies are mostly SPD points thus far.
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« Reply #1667 on: March 10, 2023, 02:46:47 PM »

2.) the first rounds of negotiations between the SPD and CDU concluded, and the CDU has agreed to a large number of SPD demands. Like I said several weeks ago, an overlooked development this election is how the CDU moved its platform closer to the SPD. Not sure if this really had an impact on voting, but it clearly has an impact on the negotiations. Here is what has been agreed to so far:

  • commitment against right-wing extremism, against any form of group-focused enmity and racism.
  • set up a state naturalization center to speed up applications and processing
  • the state anti-discrimination law will be retained and further developed
  • focus on administrative reforms - will be further negotiated
  • introduction of the voting age at 16, constitutional majorities in parliament are being explored.
  • police, fire brigade, judiciary and public prosecutor's office will have full support and should be better equipped
  • the findings of Giffey's summit against youth violence are to be implemented
  • language day-care centers (translation?) are to be continued through a state program
  • continuation of school construction focus
  • no fees for education, from daycare to university
  • new construction target of up to 20,000 new apartments per year; regulatory review
  • improved enant protection
  • socialization framework law upon a constitutional recommendation
  • the "traffic turnaround" will continue with more balance for road users as well
  • continue unlimited €29 transit ticket for all and a €9 social ticket
  • new focus on cyclist safety
  • continue goal of purchasing district heating facilities from Vattenfall and GASAG
  • climate-neutral special investment fund will be established
  • focus on renewing Berlin's business environment balanced with creation of good paying jobs
  • the state minimum wage, higher than the federal one, will remain
  • guaranteed accommodation for refugees, exploration of new housing methods
  • new children's hospital
Is there an expectation that significantly more right wing policies will be announced later and/or implemented in reality, because that certainly doesn’t sound remotely poisonous for a centre left party to support?
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #1668 on: March 11, 2023, 10:47:44 AM »
« Edited: March 11, 2023, 10:52:26 AM by Clarko95 📚💰📈 »

Is there an expectation that significantly more right wing policies will be announced later and/or implemented in reality, because that certainly doesn’t sound remotely poisonous for a centre left party to support?

No idea. It's not like they do a "turn-taking" thing. They just negotiate. I am getting 2013 and 2017 GroKo vibes, when the CDU basically caved to the SPD's demands in exchange for Merkel staying in power. I think the Berlin CDU just wants to be in power again and lead the government after 22 years. Doesn't matter to them if they implement the SPD platform with some tweaks, and they campaigned on similar topics. The Berlin CDU is not at all a conservative branch; this isn't Baden-Württemberg. They're happy to be the centrist administrator party.

You can also look at their campaign platform for 2023, it was the most inoffensive centrist platform: https://cdu.berlin/berlinplan
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« Reply #1669 on: March 13, 2023, 05:32:32 PM »
« Edited: March 13, 2023, 05:38:52 PM by Clarko95 📚💰📈 »

Minor but interesting update: the SPD party association of Pankow defeated a "No GroKo" motion with 69 votes against and 24 votes in favor (in other words, the Pankow SPD seems to want the negotiations with the CDU to continue), with 4 abstentions. The motion against was sponsored by the Working Group of Social Democratic Women (AsF).


The Jusos itself had its party conference on Saturday with some 5,000 attendees. It was an overwhelming approval of a "No GroKo" motion with only a handful of dissenting voices.

The SPD Tempelhof-Schöneberg will vote on March 18th on another "No GroKo" motion. What is interesting there is that the motion not only rejects GroKo, but also demands a reorganization of the state SPD board, i.e. Giffey and Saleh should resign and be replaced after the election debacle. Will be interesting to follow that vote.


The working groups met today, and they have a tight schedule. The first 2 of the 13 working groups are already expected to present their joint proposals on (by?) Saturday the 18th. As stated above, the working groups are to work until the 29th, when the final agreement is due. The wrap-up lasts through March 31st where the parties will determine principles of cooperations and divide departments and the final package will be presented on April 3rd.

The different working groups are allotted different timeframes based upon expectations for agreement/disagreement; for example, the working groups for science & research, business issues, energy policy, and technology are expected to finish quickly while the groups for mobility, climate protection, urban development, construction policy, and housing policy are expected to take the longest and accordingly have been allotted the most time. The absolute last working group regarding finance and the budget begins next week and will finish on the 26th.

After the almost-20,000 members of the Berlin SPD vote, and if they vote in favor, the CDU will hold a state conference to adopt the agreement as well. If everything goes according to plan, the new Senate with Kai Wegner as Governing Mayor of Berlin can be elected on May 11th.
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« Reply #1670 on: March 23, 2023, 09:43:12 AM »
« Edited: March 23, 2023, 03:13:24 PM by Quetta »

Next state election: Bremen, May 14

The only state with a four-year legislative session.
Without the AfD, however.

The Bundesland Bremen (officially: Freie und Hansestadt Bremen) consists of two cities: Bremen and Bremerhaven.
The parties submit separate slates for either city prior to state elections. In order to enter the Bremische Bürgerschaft, they only need to surpass the 5% threshold in either city. (The delegates elected in Bremen simultaneously act as delegates for the Bremen City Council in personal union.
Owing to internal quarrels, the AfD of Bremen City has illicitly two executive committees, hence two different submitted slates. The electoral authority of the city of Bremen rejected the AfD's slate for the city, whereas the electoral authority of Bremerhaven initially approved the party's slate for their city. The election committee for the whole state now rejected the Bremerhaven slate also. Thus, no AfD available on the ballots and therefore the AfD will not be represented in the Bremische Bürgerschaft whatsoever.
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Logical
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« Reply #1671 on: March 23, 2023, 10:16:03 AM »

Why does Bremen have 4 year cycles instead of 5 like every other state. Come to think of it, why does most state governments get 5 year terms when the federal government has 4.
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« Reply #1672 on: March 23, 2023, 02:43:43 PM »

Speaking of the differences in CDU state parties, the next Thuringian state election is next year. Last time, Afd+CDU+FDP got 50.1% of the vote and 53.3% of the seats, good for a brief and very controversial majority (AfD voted for a FDP Minister President, probably with the knowledge of FDP). This was condemned by many in the federal CDU and FDP, and they ended up resigning and letting the communist Left party back in.

The current head of the Thuringia CDU is Christian Hirte, who was not opposed to the Right government but who ended up being forced to resign for this, before returning to lead the Thuringia CDU. Right now, the three parties are polling at 53%. Is a cooperation likely? No. Still, there will be some in the Thuringia CDU who suggest allowing AfD to vote for them is acceptable.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1673 on: March 23, 2023, 02:59:39 PM »

Why does Bremen have 4 year cycles instead of 5 like every other state. Come to think of it, why does most state governments get 5 year terms when the federal government has 4.

It's a relic of the past. Most states switched from four year to five year terms during the 1990s. Bremen and Hamburg were the last, though latter for the first time adopted five year terms now (last election was in early 2020, next will be early 2025).

It's basically the equivalent of Vermont and New Hampshire still having two year gubernatorial terms, which was often the norm in the US a century ago. Or Virginia still having a one-term limit which was the case in several Southern states before.
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« Reply #1674 on: March 23, 2023, 03:01:21 PM »
« Edited: March 23, 2023, 03:20:02 PM by Quetta »

Why does Bremen have 4 year cycles instead of 5 like every other state. Come to think of it, why does most state governments get 5 year terms when the federal government has 4.

Until the 2000s, all 16 states used to have four-year terms, when Blair-esque and Bush-esque neo-cons from the UK and the US started to heavily influence the German political and economic system. Having five years' legislative periods instead of four was seen as a "necessary" step to reduce public costs and thus relieve pressure on the fisc, plus it was regarded as a a way to undemocratize political and social procedures in order to carry through neo-liberal, emplover-friendly reforms against any left-wing opposition.
Note that government coffers were empty at that period, and that the unemployment rates were extraordinarily high back then. Furthermore, our national press were as neo-liberal and employer-friendly as never before, as they were influenced and undermined by PUTP-esque think-tanks such as the INSM. Magazines such as the SPIEGEL used to be left-wing prior to that ear, until they became neo-liberal during that time, whereas they're now thoroughly woke as fugg.

tl;dr: cost-cutting effects plus reducing democratic participation in favor of neo-liberal reforms.

The last state to lower the length of its legislative sessions from five to four years was Hamburg in 2015.

It's a relic of the past. Most states switched from four year to five year terms during the 1990s. Bremen and Hamburg were the last, though latter for the first time adopted five year terms now (last election was in early 2020, next will be early 2025).

Hamburg already adopted a five-year term in 2015.

Coming back to Bremen: There was a ballot measure on the extension of the length of a legislative term in Bermen in 2017. 48,4% voted in favor of it, 51,6% against it.
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