🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[President Johnson]

Linke is behind Tierschutz in many towns 🤣

Would SPD do the ungerman thing and govern alone? Or coalition with die grünen

Almost certainly govern alone. Majorities are rare but when they happen, i am unaware of the winner forming a coalition just for the sake of it 🤔

Well, Reiner Haseloff (CDU) did so in Saxony Anhalt last year by forming a coalition with the SPD and FDP, although there was already a one seat CDU/SPD majority. However, since he had issues with the conservative wing of his state party, the FDP's entry took away de facto veto power from a group of potential CDU defectors. I remember one commentator writing that "Haseloff needed the FDP to save himself from the CDU". As it turned out, it was the correct move since he needed a second ballot to get reelected as MP because he had no majority on the first. And it's pretty much certain these defections weren't SPD or FDP members (most likely a group around Holger Stahlknecht, whom Haseloff dismissed as Interior Minister months prior after he floated a coalition with the AfD).

In 2006, Kurt Beck won a narrow SPD majority in Rhineland Palatine and offered the FDP to continue their Social-Liberal coalition, although the FDP wasn't needed anymore. However, they declined the offer and after the 2011 election, a coalition with the Greens was formed (and later trafficlight under Malu Dreyer).

[Astatine]

CDU Saar was the only German state party that won a vote share of 40%+ in any of the most recent 16 state elections. Until today, with SPD assuming that position.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Would SPD do the ungerman thing and govern alone? Or coalition with die grünen

I don't know why one-party governments are considered "ungerman". They used to be the norm on the state level in the last century, and they still occurred from time to time in the 00's. The last three governors (yes, PUTP, I call them governors by Atlas tradition) were Kurt Beck in Rhineland-Palatinate in 2006, Olaf Scholz in Hamburg in 2011 (which I made a minor contribution to), and Horst Seehofer in Bavaria in 2013.

Almost certainly govern alone. Majorities are rare but when they happen, i am unaware of the winner forming a coalition just for the sake of it 🤔

Chancellor Adenauer did so in 1957, even though CDU and CSU received a majority, forming a so-called "übergroße Koalition" with the right-wing nationalist DP.
Both DP ministers, however, left their party and joined the CDU in 1960, therefore effectively forming a one-party coalition.

SPD-CDU-AfD only parliament. Hysterical

Still better than the Thuringian Landtag.

Only Lebach outstanding: Greens 182 votes above the threshold now, FDP 979 votes below. Unless there were reporting errors or precinct recounts, Greens are in and FDP out.

That aged very badly very quickly.

[Continential]

Welcome back Hades, I look forward to you ragequitting again and coming back in a few months after that.

[Astatine]

Only Lebach outstanding: Greens 182 votes above the threshold now, FDP 979 votes below. Unless there were reporting errors or precinct recounts, Greens are in and FDP out.

That aged very badly very quickly.

Lmao as if I haven't followed the results in my own state and kept track, do you really think a nuclear power supporter would not at least smirk if the Greens failed to win seats?

In fact, here's the spreadsheet:

 

And I obviously either mixed up numbers somewhere or was too early to rely on preliminary votemanager result of the municipalities before they were reported to the state electoral commission.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Welcome back Hades, I look forward to you ragequitting again and coming back in a few months after that.

Don't worry! I'm off again. I'm merely making a brief unannounced return visit, and I'm off again now.

One last thing about the Saarland election. The funniest situation about the street campaigning was corona-infected Governor Hans imitating Sheldon Cooper:

https://twitter.com/ElenaMarakov/status/1505118310345678848

[Oryxslayer]

Yikes, that poll is accurate and if all parties at 5% or lower end up not making it over the threshold, the SPD could very well end up with an absolute majority with that poll result. That would be something.

I mean if there was to be a place where everyone gets screwed by the threshold, it would be Saarland. Linke and AfD have a large eastern base that guarantees 4-parties at minimum, and most of the western states have the large cities and commuter communities that give FDP and the Greens their best results. Saar has neither and the demise of the provincial Linke leaves the big two standing tall.

L O L

[Middle-aged Europe]

[rob in cal]

Is this close to a record for total vote % going to parties that missed the threshold? Pretty funny that two of the three national governing parties don't get seats.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So how much truth is there to the thing I'm hearing of the theory that Linke's support collapsed due to their opposition to NATO?

[Astatine]

So how much truth is there to the thing I'm hearing of the theory that Linke's support collapsed due to their opposition to NATO?

Close to none, where did you hear that?

This is a state election, Linke had the following problems:
- They have been in a state of disarray since 2013 in an intra party fight that escalated badly, with their major lead figure Oskar Lafontaine (former, folksy Governor, very NATO critic) leaving the party 1 week ahead of the election. With Lafontaine, they would have crossed the threshold.
- SPD excluded Red-Red due to Linke's infighting -> No chance to govern, no need to vote.
- The campaign was chaotic overall, the lead candidate fought hard but she designed the campaign posters herself (and they looked really... meh, no clear message) and well, the party didn't have any viable message for the voters.

Most of that can be reduced to the giant party fights. According to exit polls, foreign policy/Ukraine was most important issue for 3% of the voters only, because... Well it's a state election.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Yikes, that poll is accurate and if all parties at 5% or lower end up not making it over the threshold, the SPD could very well end up with an absolute majority with that poll result. That would be something.

I mean if there was to be a place where everyone gets screwed by the threshold, it would be Saarland. Linke and AfD have a large eastern base that guarantees 4-parties at minimum, and most of the western states have the large cities and commuter communities that give FDP and the Greens their best results. Saar has neither and the demise of the provincial Linke leaves the big two standing tall.

L O L

I might have mentioned it first, but I surely did not see that coming. In fact, no one saw that coming. All pundits expected a continuation of the grad coalition under the SPD. This is the first election that I can recall in which the SPD was so severely UNDERestimated.

[JimJamUK]

To add, Linke got 7% in the 2021 federal election with no Greens on the ballot, so it didn’t take much for them to fall under the threshold. The original Linke strength in Saarland (both personality and party appeal) has disappeared and severely diminished, respectively, leaving very little underlying support.

[Astatine]

By the way, Germany has no statewide recounts, which means Greens have to rely on the following procedures:

- All votes were counted fair and square yesterday (possibly even multiple times, precincts are usually small in size and have enough election day helpers to count quick, plus it was just one vote). If there are any complaints about irregularities (anyone can observe the counting process), a complaint can be filed to the local election authority. Also, the local election authorities will check if there are any "suspicious" results (or anyone can give a hint towards that), for instance if there is an unusually high number of invalid votes or if results suggest there might have been some human errors involved (such as a minor party suddenly overperforming extremely for first time ever while another party is way lower - maybe a typo? maybe switched ballots?). In that case, the respective precincts will go through a recount process.

- Once the result in each town is certified, the county electoral commissions will add all up (including possible recounts) and check again.

- Once all counties have certified the results, the state electoral commission will announce the final official result.

In 2017, the whole final result tally process resulted in a minimal shift of votes, which could be crucial this time around. In 2009, the vote count for all Landtag parties but Linke remained exactly the same. 23 votes is a really small number, but the determination of final vote tally could also result in other parties gaining votes and thus increasing the threshold. We'll see in about 2-3 weeks - I just checked the results for Saarbrücken and no precinct had suspiciously many invalid votes.

[Astatine]

By the way, this is the 7th consecutive election (Hamburg 20, B-W 21, RLP 21, Saxony-Anhalt 21, federal 21, M-V 21, Berlin 21) in which the AfD loses votes compared to the previous one - And they're only 3,098 votes above the threshold.

Which essentially means that a net of 4,000 Linke 2017 voters that opted for AfD this time around kept the party in Parliament:

[Astatine]

Here is my very cautious prediction:

SPD: 39%
CDU: 30.5%
AfD: 6.5%
Grüne: 5%
FDP: barely over 5%
Linke: 4%
bunt.saar: just below 3%

Grand coalition is the safest bet, although there might be some pressure from the federal party to consider a red-green coalition now that the composition of the Bundesrat is suddenly important again. As vice-chair of the federal SPD, this argument may weigh quite a lot on Rehlinger.

At this point, it's even possible the SPD wins an absolute majority. Anyway, if polling is remotely accurate and it's indeed a clear mandate, I could actually see Rehlinger as chancellor material in post-Scholz era during the second half of this decade. If her tenure goes well, she'd definitely be among the frontrunners.

Among the (soon to be) 4 female SPD Minister-Presidents, she definitely is the one with most potential to be relevant on federal level for now.

Dreyer is a bit older and she has won 2 elections already, but we'll see if the current scandal surrounding the management of the 2021 floods will damage her reputation. Plus, keep in mind she has Multiple Sclerosis, she might not even have ambitions to rise up even more.

Giffey is damaged due to her plagiarism scandal and won the 2021 elections with a relatively poor result, and according to current polling she's underwater in Berlin.

Schwesig is damaged due to her positions in Russia and her handling of that criticism has been relatively poor so far.

And ofc, none of them has won an overall majority - This might also bode some risks for Rehlinger, as SPD could now be held accountable for anything that might go wrong. If she wins reelection in 2027 (with a good result), she is definitely going to be a force to be reckoned with. And she'd only be 50 by then.

[Astatine]

Is this close to a record for total vote % going to parties that missed the threshold? Pretty funny that two of the three national governing parties don't get seats.

Yup, it's a record for Germany - The previous was set in the 1997 Hamburg state elections (19.2 %). This time it's 22.3 %, will be hard to top for sure.

We Saarländer have to compensate our home state's small size with records and weird political circumstances all across the board.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

here is full proportional results again

Saarland 2022

SPD: 22 seats (-7)
CDU: 15 seats (-4)
AfD: 3 seats (+/- 0)
GRÜNE: 3 seats (+3)
FDP: 2 seats (+2)
LINKE: 1 seat (+1)
Tierschutz: 1 seat (+1)
FW: 1 seat (+1)
dieBasis: 1 seat (+1)
Bunts.saar: 1 seat (+1)
PARTEI: 1 seat (+1)

what coalition would likely form from this?

[Astatine]

here is full proportional results again

Saarland 2022

SPD: 22 seats (-7)
CDU: 15 seats (-4)
AfD: 3 seats (+/- 0)
GRÜNE: 3 seats (+3)
FDP: 2 seats (+2)
LINKE: 1 seat (+1)
Tierschutz: 1 seat (+1)
FW: 1 seat (+1)
dieBasis: 1 seat (+1)
Bunts.saar: 1 seat (+1)
PARTEI: 1 seat (+1)

what coalition would likely form from this?

In that case, probably another GroKo (SPD-CDU). Traffic light would be a big risk for SPD and Rehlinger stated before the election she would favor a GroKo.

Saarland uses D'Hondt as seat allocation method though, which would produce the following result:

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

here is full proportional results again

Saarland 2022

SPD: 22 seats (-7)
CDU: 15 seats (-4)
AfD: 3 seats (+/- 0)
GRÜNE: 3 seats (+3)
FDP: 2 seats (+2)
LINKE: 1 seat (+1)
Tierschutz: 1 seat (+1)
FW: 1 seat (+1)
dieBasis: 1 seat (+1)
Bunts.saar: 1 seat (+1)
PARTEI: 1 seat (+1)

what coalition would likely form from this?

In that case, probably another GroKo (SPD-CDU). Traffic light would be a big risk for SPD and Rehlinger stated before the election she would favor a GroKo.

Saarland uses D'Hondt as seat allocation method though, which would produce the following result:

Yeah, I just used my own method (described in the thread linked) to do the calculations.

[Astatine]

2/6 counties have certified their results so far - including Saarbrücken, the stronghold for Grüne. No change in their vote tally, meaning they need a miracle to still cross the threshold.

Meanwhile in Schleswig-Holstein, where the next state election takes place:

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1509432085022392326

Günther has an approval rating of 74% according to that poll - And incumbency will play out eventually (which is why I take polls with low CDU number in S-H with a huge grain of salt) - In Saarland's case, it was just that Rehlinger was the de facto incumbent.

Also, lol @Linke.

[Astatine]

All county electoral committees have certified their results, no change in Grüne vote.
Saarland will remain the only state parliament in which Greens are not represented.

[Isaak]

By the way, this is the 7th consecutive election (Hamburg 20, B-W 21, RLP 21, Saxony-Anhalt 21, federal 21, M-V 21, Berlin 21) in which the AfD loses votes compared to the previous one - And they're only 3,098 votes above the threshold.

And this really tells you something about the supposed 'rise of populism' in Germany, which more and more turns out to be a mirage. In fact, with each passing day, the situation becomes more dire for the AfD: election losses, intra-party hostilities, lack of ideological cohesion, and, on top of all that, a clueless, incompetent and uninspiring leadership.

At this point, it is just a matter of time until they fail to re-enter a Landtag. They really seem to have peaked in 2015-2017.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

And this really tells you something about the supposed 'rise of populism' in Germany, which more and more turns out to be a mirage. In fact, with each passing day, the situation becomes more dire for the AfD: election losses, intra-party hostilities, lack of ideological cohesion, and, on top of all that, a clueless, incompetent and uninspiring leadership.

Interestingly enough, they still continue being one of only two parties to be represented in each and every state parliament despite all their silly and immature bickering.

Regarding the rise of populism: Please bear in mind that a load of today's AfD voters stem from the FDP from a time when they still used to be the unofficial party of political incorrectness and populism, especially in the East and in Swabia.

At this point, it is just a matter of time until they fail to re-enter a Landtag.

Lower Saxony this fall.

[Astatine]

Final Saarland results in total votes (change vs. preliminary results):

SPD 196,801 (+2)
CDU 129,154 (-2)
AfD 25,719 (-1)
Greens 22,598 (±0)
FDP 21,618 (±0)
Linke 11,689 (±0)
Others 44,832 (+1)
Valid votes 452,411 (±0)
Invalid votes 5,702 (-110)

Five percent threshold: 22,621 - Greens still 23 votes below