🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Astatine]

If this poll is borne out i guess we would almost certainly be looking at an SPD/Green coalition

Are the Saarland Greens (for want of a better term) ‘stable’ enough that to happen? Their recent troubles do not suggest a party completely ready to be in government but perhaps they’ve sorted themselves out?

Well just today Ralph Rouget, the former party chairman of the Saar Greens, announced he resigned his membership (just like Lafontaine with Linke last week) and stated his party is not able to govern and would only be infighting if elected to the state legislature.

Rouget had his 5 minutes - or rather 5 days - of fame when he was elected chairman at the chaotic convention last summer, but he resigned shortly after when the whole drama unfolded. He is by far no Lafontaine (but seems to have an ego as big as his, just like many here at the Saar) and rather unknown, but that's surely nothing you want to have as news headline when you're a party at 5-6 % in the polls and the election is in 2 days.

I am extremely skeptical about either Red-Green or Red-Yellow happening. The Greens here have stabilized a bit since the whole drama last year, but the parliamentary group would be very unexperienced. Also, thanks to our seat allocation system, we might get Members of the State Legislature from both "wings" of the party that were fighting so heavily against each other.
FDP had a big purge after voters purged them in the 2012 election, but their potential MSLs would be even less experienced than the Greens'. One advantage might be that potential negotiations would be made between Rehlinger and FDP chairman Oliver Luksic, who has been in Bundestag for some years and negotiated the transportation chapter in the traffic light coalition agreement with her. FDP also actively campaigns for Red-Yellow.
We'll see, but as of now I still see the GroKo as most likely option - A lot depends on how disarrayed CDU will be after Sunday. And ofc, an overall majority for SPD is not out of sight: With a result of 41.5 % SPD, 27 % CDU, 6 % AfD, 5 % Grüne and 5 % FDP, SPD would have an absolute majority.

[Astatine]

Here is my very cautious prediction:

SPD: 39%
CDU: 30.5%
AfD: 6.5%
Grüne: 5%
FDP: barely over 5%
Linke: 4%
bunt.saar: just below 3%

Grand coalition is the safest bet, although there might be some pressure from the federal party to consider a red-green coalition now that the composition of the Bundesrat is suddenly important again. As vice-chair of the federal SPD, this argument may weigh quite a lot on Rehlinger.

At this point, it's even possible the SPD wins an absolute majority. Anyway, if polling is remotely accurate and it's indeed a clear mandate, I could actually see Rehlinger as chancellor material in post-Scholz era during the second half of this decade. If her tenure goes well, she'd definitely be among the frontrunners.

After Lafontaine and AKK we make sure not to run out of potential future Chancellor candidates from our blessed state.

[Astatine]

The 2017 state elections by municipality - Note that SPD won all of them in the 2021 federal elections.

Live results for Sunday: https://wahlergebnis.saarland.de/LTW/ (should be done counting quickly since we only cast one vote)

[Estrella]

People here probably know, but right after WW2, Saarland was briefly a kinda-sorta-not-really part of France. During this time, the Saar Territory held two elections for its legislature - in 1947 and 1952. From nanwe01 on Deviantart (who seems to have posted here but was last active in 2019 ), their maps:

[President Johnson]

Last minute Saarland prediction:

SPD: 37.8%
CDU: 32.4%
AfD: 6.2%
Greens: 5.3%

---

FDP: 4.8%
Linke: 3.8%
bunt.saar: 2.5%

Equal chance for SPD-Green coalition and Grand coalition with SPD as senior partner.

[Astatine]

Last minute prediction:

SPD: 39.0%
CDU: 31.5%
AfD: 6.0%
Greens: 5.0%
FDP: 4.9%
Linke: 4.0%
bunt.saar: 2.5%

[President Johnson]

First exit poll at poll closing:



SPD currently with an absolute majority:

[DL]

Could be absolute majority for SPD?

[Astatine]

Could be absolute majority for SPD?

Yup, even if FDP is in.

[DL]

How important is control of the Bundesrat to the traffic light coalition? Do they need to win some new state elections to be able to get a majority there and pass legislation?

[Estrella]

Would a one-seat majority for SPD be workable? It's Germany, so at first I thought it would, but Saarland seems to be... special.

[Astatine]

ZDF has FDP at 4.9 %, ARD has them at 5.0 %.
This is gonna be a nailbiter, similarly to Thuringia 2019.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

THANK YOU SAARLAND!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As a wise man once said: aaaayyyy lmao.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

SPD flipped Tholey, the strongest CDU town in 2017

[Astatine]

Only Lebach outstanding: Greens 182 votes above the threshold now, FDP 979 votes below. Unless there were reporting errors or precinct recounts, Greens are in and FDP out.

[Hnv1]

Would SPD do the ungerman thing and govern alone? Or coalition with die grünen

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Linke is behind Tierschutz in many towns 🤣

Would SPD do the ungerman thing and govern alone? Or coalition with die grünen

Almost certainly govern alone. Majorities are rare but when they happen, i am unaware of the winner forming a coalition just for the sake of it 🤔

[Astatine]

GRÜNE OUT, 23 VOTES BELOW THE THRESHOLD WITH ALL TOWNS COUNTED.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

SPD-CDU-AfD only parliament. Hysterical

[Astatine]

SPD-CDU-AfD only parliament. Hysterical

If anything here comes close to the Saarland situation right now, it would be the 1979 Austrian general elections, with polls not forecasting an overall majority for SPÖ.

In the end, the voters elected SPÖ by a landslide, a stunning defeat for ÖVP. The Parliament also had only three parties, just like Saarland now, with SPÖ=SPD, ÖVP=CDU and FPÖ=AfD, they even have same ideologies and similar seat share ...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If anything here comes close to the Saarland situation right now, it would be the 1979 Austrian general elections, with polls not forecasting an overall majority for SPÖ.

Tender??!?!

[sirius3100]

Almost certainly govern alone. Majorities are rare but when they happen, i am unaware of the winner forming a coalition just for the sake of it 🤔

The winner sometimes wants it if their own majority is pretty small.

The problem is that the junior partner could be kicked out of government at any point in such a coalition. So there is little incentive for the smaller party to enter into it.

[Astatine]

CDU: massive losses
SPD: overall big gains, but more evenly distributed than CDU's win in 2017
Linke: completely collapsed across the board
AfD: remained stable overall
Greens: made gains mostly but lost votes in 6 towns which eventually cost them the election
FDP: made slight gains in every town but it wasn't enough after all
Others: big increase everywhere

[President Johnson]

So, with Greens and FDP out, the SPD has a pretty comfortable governing majority, something not accomplished since Olaf Scholz' victory in Hamburg 2011. Actually the biggest SPD win since Scholz was reelected in Hamburg in 2015 with 45% of the vote. And a year ago, the SPD was considered dead. To quote Joe Biden: "We're very much alive!"

Final results: