🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Astatine]

[...]

With either of these results what is more likely? An SPD led grand coalition or an SPD led Red/green or traffick light coalition?

From most to least likely:

- SPD+CDU: Incumbent government, most likely scenario. CDU and SPD have worked well together in the last 10 years, and although there's a rougher tone between both parties during the campaign, they still have lots of common manifesto-wise.
-  SPD+FDP: A combination we haven't seen in 16 years on statewide level, but honestly the second most likely at this point. FDP and SPD have some differences and a party that has been absent from Parliament for 10 years is always an unpredictable force, but unlike the other smaller parties, FDP is not producing any headlines for being in a state of disarray. SPD leader Anke Rehlinger and FDP leader Oliver Luksic also seem to get along very well - They both worked together in the federal traffic light negotiations.
- SPD+Greens: They share many programmatic similarities, but Greens here are essentially mess and there would definitely be clashes surrounding jobs & economy, two issues on which Rehlinger tries to emphasize her experience. The party is divided into two camps (that happen to be separated by location as well) revolving around personal animosities, and thanks to the multi-member constituency system, both wings might eventually end up in the same parliamentary group.
- SPD+Greens+FDP: Combination of all negative factors of red-yellow and red-green with few benefits, especially since FDP and Greens would clash a lot on jobs. Unlikely, although not fully excluded.
- SPD+Greens+Linke: Linke is as messy as the Greens over here, and I honestly doubt they could get to an agreement. A coalition with two highly unreliable partners who do not really like each other (Greens opted for Jamaica instead of red-red-green in 2009) can't go well. There could be negotiations, but that's about it.

[President Johnson]

Awesome Saarland poll! I just hope that keeps up for the final stage of the campaign. Usually there have been pretty hard swings towards the incumbent Minister-President in the closing weeks and days in all recent state elections, regardless of the senior governing party. I wonder why Hans seems to struggle that much, it's not that he has been a very controversial chief executive at all and seems more of the rational pragmatist. Maybe voters just want a change after the CDU has held the Staatskanzlei for that long?

If the SPD indeed ends up victorious, it would definitely boost Scholz' standing and may create some momentum for the NRW and Schleswig-Holstein elections later on, where CDU incumbents catched up to the SPD's polling lead lately. The opposite "domino effect" basically happened in 2017, which also helped to derail the Schulz train.

Anyway, my preferred coalition would obviously be trafficlight.

[Astatine]

Awesome Saarland poll! I just hope that keeps up for the final stage of the campaign. Usually there have been pretty hard swings towards the incumbent Minister-President in the closing weeks and days in all recent state elections, regardless of the senior governing party. I wonder why Hans seems to struggle that much, it's not that he has been a very controversial chief executive at all and seems more of the rational pragmatist. Maybe voters just want a change after the CDU has held the Staatskanzlei for that long?

If the SPD indeed ends up victorious, it would definitely boost Scholz' standing and may create some momentum for the NRW and Schleswig-Holstein elections later on, where CDU incumbents catched up to the SPD's polling lead lately. The opposite "domino effect" basically happened in 2017, which also helped to derail the Schulz train.

Anyway, my preferred coalition would obviously be trafficlight.

Although I might add that all of the re-elected incumbents were popular Minister-Presidents, something that cannot necessarily be said about Hans, if the polls are correct. The flips of S-H and NRW in 2017 also happened due to Albig and Kraft being relatively unpopular (approvals in the 50s range), compared to all of the other incumbents that were reelected in the timespan before (Kretschmann was at 80 %, AKK and Dreyer in the high 70s).

There might be multiple factors contributing to Hans having a low incumbency bonus:

- Hans is often regarded as a flip-flopper. Whenever Markus Söder announced a change in his Covid-19 response, Hans copied exactly that policy few hours later - Just now again with vaccine mandats. Hans seems more like Söder's extended arm than someone who governs in his own right. CDU also flip-flopped on the issue of school reform just days ago.

- Rehlinger is a good fit for the state. Saarland loves its folksy Muttis, something that AKK had perfectly embodied before. Rehlinger also has the advantage of leading a crucial Ministry, since economy, jobs and employment is an issue people care for a lot right now. In the 2017 election, finances (Länderfinanzausgleichsreform) and immigration were considered more important than they are now - Both Ministries that the CDU chaired at that time. Rehlinger has done a good job in building up a profile in that regard, siding with the steel industry and successfully bringing a battery company providing several thousand jobs to the state. She might have benefitted from having been top candidate in 2017 already, preparing herself and her party for a run.

- Hans campaign started off with bad headlines: He announced a shadow cabinet some days ago, but only hours after the announcement, the "shadow minister" for culture resigned from the team, as it was revealed that she participated in anti-Corona measure protests without masks. Another point is that the popular Interior Minister (who is largely attributed to have helped AKK winning big in 2017) is retiring and the new faces are not well known.

- Hans has never won an election in his own right - Neither did AKK when she was re-elected in 2012, but her decision to opt for snap elections to end the chaotic Jamaica coalition was popular. AKK had been a Minister for 11 years when she became Minister-President, Rehlinger has been a Cabinet member for 10 years now. Hans never had an executive position before (he failed to get elected county chairman of Neunkirchen in 2015 only to be promoted to become CDU parliamentary leader 2 days later) and is the embodiment of a career politician (his father was parliamentary leader too, and Hans in fact did never completed his studies nor did he have a job outside of politics).

Nevertheless, I would be extremely cautious to overinterpret the results of the poll and the elections. The Schulz effect in 2017 was rather a Schulz bubble, and AKK was just extremely popular. While Wüst is definitely still unknown in NRW, I doubt that a potential Rehlinger win in Saarland would harm Günther's chances of winning S-H significantly. As said, Albig was a mediocre Minister-President, while Günther has a 72 % approval rating according to the most recent poll. Also, the S-H SPD candidate is extremely unknown (he was a Green Party member before), with only 26 % having ever heard of him. Only 7 % (!) would vote for him in a matchup against Günther (58 %) - in December 2016, Albig led Günther by a margin of 50 to 23. I am not confident in the SPD's chances to overcome such a giant advantage.

In the end, popular politicians and unpopular ones lose. In 2017, AKK was popular and Albig/Kraft were unpopular. This year, Rehlinger and Günther are popular, while Wüst is a wild card.

If the Greens were capable of governing, I would not object a traffic light coalition, but the past year has shown they're not. I honestly prefer a GroKo or red-yellow at this point.

[Oryxslayer]

If the SPD indeed ends up victorious, it would definitely boost Scholz' standing and may create some momentum for the NRW and Schleswig-Holstein elections later on, where CDU incumbents catched up to the SPD's polling lead lately. The opposite "domino effect" basically happened in 2017, which also helped to derail the Schulz train.

On this point, I have noticed that the Union has retaken the lead in national polling to decent degree, and Scholz's honeymoon is over and his approvals are now underwater. Is that just the fight with King Soder taking it's toll, the confusion over Germanies Ukraine policy, or something else?

[President Johnson]

If the SPD indeed ends up victorious, it would definitely boost Scholz' standing and may create some momentum for the NRW and Schleswig-Holstein elections later on, where CDU incumbents catched up to the SPD's polling lead lately. The opposite "domino effect" basically happened in 2017, which also helped to derail the Schulz train.

On this point, I have noticed that the Union has retaken the lead in national polling to decent degree, and Scholz's honeymoon is over and his approvals are now underwater. Is that just the fight with King Soder taking it's toll, the confusion over Germanies Ukraine policy, or something else?

Scholz was lately criticized for not being visible enough, especially the Ukraine situation and the debate over Covid restrictions, including the proposed vaccine mandate. However, SPD has lately regained ground, though, and Scholz currently recives very positive press coverage for his visit in Moscow. Söder has not regained popularity and still is way behind Scholz. Most popular politicians at the moment are President Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Health Minister Karl Lauterbach (both SPD).

[Astatine]

Rehlinger and Hans had a debate today, and imho, Rehlinger clearly won it. She attacked Hans on weak spots such as his flip-flopping, emphasizing her strengths while being able to solidify Hans' reputation as someone who changes his opinions whenever necessary. Hans failed to counter her attacks and tried to blame the federal traffic light coalition for much that's going wrong, although Rehlinger countered this point well.

She also excluded forming a coalition with Linke (not exactly, but stated the party is not able to govern) which is a smart move: Linke is in a deep crisis hovering around 5 % and without a potential coalition partner, it is entirely possible that some of their voters switch to SPD/Greens instead in hope for CDU being shunned out of government. In the last campaign she didn't exclude Red-Red, which was an extremely unpopular coalition option as R2G is now (23 % in favor, 72 % opposed). Excluding that option won't harm her, but makes it impossible for Hans to campaign on it.

For our fellow German speakers who want to watch it: https://www.sr.de/sr/home/nachrichten/dossiers/wahlen/landtagswahl_2022/das_duell_rehlinger_hans_wichtigste_aussagen_100.html

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Gouverneur Hans' latest sand trap:

https://twitter.com/tobiashans/status/1501135349958983680

[Astatine]

Linke in disarray: Former Linke MP Volker Schneider and current parliamentary whip Jochen Flackus (who was not nominated again for this election since he belongs to the Lafontaine wing) announced today they left the party. Given they're around 5 % right now, this is not the publicity you'd want 2 weeks ahead of the election as the party's top candidate.

Also, no new polls ever since the infratest poll.
(No, Wahlkreisprognose is not a pollster, please don't share such junk numbers in this thread)

[President Johnson]

New Saarland poll: Unless there's a dramatic last-minute shift, it looks like the SPD will win the Saarland election and oust Minister-President Hans, picking up a governorship. Very possible the grand coalition will be continued in switched roles. I wonder whether Tobias Hans would continue to serve as minister and deputy MP, return as a backbencher or outright quit politics.

Rehlinger also leads Hans in a head-to-head poll 49-33%. Actually an atrocious number for an incumbent.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1504505573928230912

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Yikes, that poll is accurate and if all parties at 5% or lower end up not making it over the threshold, the SPD could very well end up with an absolute majority with that poll result. That would be something.

[Oryxslayer]

Yikes, that poll is accurate and if all parties at 5% or lower end up not making it over the threshold, the SPD could very well end up with an absolute majority with that poll result. That would be something.

I mean if there was to be a place where everyone gets screwed by the threshold, it would be Saarland. Linke and AfD have a large eastern base that guarantees 4-parties at minimum, and most of the western states have the large cities and commuter communities that give FDP and the Greens their best results. Saar has neither and the demise of the provincial Linke leaves the big two standing tall.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

New poll confirms the trend. The SPD is almost safe to win this but what happens to the smaller parties will be super interesting. I'm almost certain now that LINKE will not make it into the Landtag. The end of an era, really.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1504712719915753472

[President Johnson]

I don't think an absolute majority is likely at this point, though a red-green government is within the range of serious possibilities.

Really interesting that the latest trend towards reelecting the incumbent will be broken here. Not a single Minister-President was ousted since 2017, with almost all states having a state election in the meantime. However, I think CDU will defend NRW and Schleswig-Holstein this year, and Stephan Weil (SPD) in Lower Saxony is also on track to win a third term.

[DL]

I think CDU will defend NRW and Schleswig-Holstein this year, and Stephan Weil (SPD) in Lower Saxony is also on track to win a third term.

It will be interesting to see what happens in NRW. Its usually been an SPD stronghold but currently has a CDU/FDP coalition. Looking at the polls there seems to be zero chance of that being repeated after the May 2022 elections. Looks like the math may be there for a SPD/Green government or a grand coalition led by either SPD or CDU

[President Johnson]

I think CDU will defend NRW and Schleswig-Holstein this year, and Stephan Weil (SPD) in Lower Saxony is also on track to win a third term.

It will be interesting to see what happens in NRW. Its usually been an SPD stronghold but currently has a CDU/FDP coalition. Looking at the polls there seems to be zero chance of that being repeated after the May 2022 elections. Looks like the math may be there for a SPD/Green government or a grand coalition led by either SPD or CDU

Red-Green is not very likely in NRW. CDU and SPD are neck-in-neck, though I expect a last-minute shift towards the incumbent. Jamaica or Trafficlight are more realtic, I think. Possibly Black-Green.

[DL]

I wonder if the existence of the traffic light coalition at the federal level will increase the likelihood of traffic light coalitions being formed at the state level?

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

A new poll basically replicating what we know so far.

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1505297136866504705

[Beagle]

OK, but 10% others is surely not going to happen. Who would they even be, if bunt.saar are around the 3% mark, the FW should be around 2% and then... what, Tierschutz?

[President Johnson]

A new poll basically replicating what we know so far.

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1505297136866504705

Hans is pretty much done at this point.

[President Johnson]

New Saarland poll, the SPD is running away with it. Rehlinger also leads Hans in MP preference 57-30%, an atrocious showing for an incumbent.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1507098067664789509

[DL]

If this poll is borne out i guess we would almost certainly be looking at an SPD/Green coalition

[JimJamUK]

If this poll is borne out i guess we would almost certainly be looking at an SPD/Green coalition

Are the Saarland Greens (for want of a better term) ‘stable’ enough that to happen? Their recent troubles do not suggest a party completely ready to be in government but perhaps they’ve sorted themselves out?

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Here is my very cautious prediction:

SPD: 39%
CDU: 30.5%
AfD: 6.5%
Grüne: 5%
FDP: barely over 5%
Linke: 4%
bunt.saar: just below 3%

Grand coalition is the safest bet, although there might be some pressure from the federal party to consider a red-green coalition now that the composition of the Bundesrat is suddenly important again. As vice-chair of the federal SPD, this argument may weigh quite a lot on Rehlinger.

[President Johnson]

Here is my very cautious prediction:

SPD: 39%
CDU: 30.5%
AfD: 6.5%
Grüne: 5%
FDP: barely over 5%
Linke: 4%
bunt.saar: just below 3%

Grand coalition is the safest bet, although there might be some pressure from the federal party to consider a red-green coalition now that the composition of the Bundesrat is suddenly important again. As vice-chair of the federal SPD, this argument may weigh quite a lot on Rehlinger.

At this point, it's even possible the SPD wins an absolute majority. Anyway, if polling is remotely accurate and it's indeed a clear mandate, I could actually see Rehlinger as chancellor material in post-Scholz era during the second half of this decade. If her tenure goes well, she'd definitely be among the frontrunners.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

At this point, it's even possible the SPD wins an absolute majority. Anyway, if polling is remotely accurate and it's indeed a clear mandate, I could actually see Rehlinger as chancellor material in post-Scholz era during the second half of this decade. If her tenure goes well, she'd definitely be among the frontrunners.

It is, but when you're siding with the SPD, it's best to keep your expectations really, really low.