🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Astatine]

CDU M-V leader Michael Sack has resigned after his party achieved the third worst result of the CDU in state elections ever.

[😥]

What's the odds of SPD-Grüne coalition in Berlin and Mecklenburg?

[Astatine]

What's the odds of SPD-Grüne coalition in Berlin and Mecklenburg?

Both not arithmetically possible. In Berlin, it seems to either be SPD-Greens-Linke or SPD-CDU-FDP, while in MV there is a chance for both SPD-CDU and SPD-Linke.

SPD in MV would've clashed with the Greens anyways - Manuela Schwesig is a vocal supporter of North Stream 2.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Why do the SDP do so strongly in M-V (and Brandenburg) relative to other eastern Lander anyway?

[President Johnson]

What's the odds of SPD-Grüne coalition in Berlin and Mecklenburg?

Both not arithmetically possible. In Berlin, it seems to either be SPD-Greens-Linke or SPD-CDU-FDP, while in MV there is a chance for both SPD-CDU and SPD-Linke.

SPD in MV would've clashed with the Greens anyways - Manuela Schwesig is a vocal supporter of North Stream 2.

In Berlin, there also a chance for a Kenya coalition with Greens and the CDU.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Why do the SDP do so strongly in M-V (and Brandenburg) relative to other eastern Lander anyway?

For this time: Schwesig is a popular MP. Generally speaking for MP. Until 2002, the elections have been at the same date as the federal elections, so now midterm effects. Especially in the early nineties the CDU-run governments were scandal-ridden desasters. And the SPD was always competitive, so there was real competition.

Many people seem to think, that all state politics in the East is like Saxony, but Saxony is actually the outlier.

[Astatine]

The Berlin sh#tshow of an election is a full chaos, and it remains to be seen whether there might filings against this:

- In some precincts, more than 20 % of the votes are invalid (1.1 % in the whole city), which is unheard and has never happened before.
https://twitter.com/ChrLatz/status/1443204970577334280

- For the local elections, the Electoral Committee of Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf has reported exact same results for some precincts, only to announce later that the published result was not the actual one, but only an estimate. An estimate based on which a seat distribution has been announced already, apparently...
- There are reports of local election officials telling voters who have waited in the line for more than 2 hours that if they want to vote quicker, they can have a ballot for the federal election only, since ballots for the local and state elections had not arrived yet. If they wanted to vote for the state legislature and local councils, they would have to wait longer.
- In at least one voting station, a Muslim woman wearing a hijab was not let to vote, since local election officials told her that there is a ban of full veiling (there is a video of the discussion). She was let to vote, but as of now it remains to be seen whether there were more of those cases or whether this was limited to one voting station only.
- According to unconfirmed reports, there was a case of Albanian citizens being handed all ballots for the election, although people without German citizenship are only allowed to vote in the local elections.

As a consequence, the Statewide Head of the Electoral Committee of Berlin announced her resignation, together with her deputy, but this is definitely a full-hand embarrassment on NYC BoE level.

Germans were easy to mock Americans for the long vote count in the November elections - Little do they know that Americans did not only cast their vote for the presidential elections that day, but also for elections for Congress, state legislature, local officials, possible special elections, referendums and statewide officials, while Berlin couldn't even handle 4 votes on one day.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Let's check in on the polling for the Thuringia election that's been delayed more times than Half-Life 3 at this point (changes from last election):

AfD 24 (+1)
SPD 21 (+13)
Linke 20 (-11)
CDU 15 (-7)
FDP 8 (+3)
Green 7 (+2)

Thuringia SPD must really be furious they couldn't have it on the same day as the federal elections.

[DL]

Let's check in on the polling for the Thuringia election that's been delayed more times than Half-Life 3 at this point (changes from last election):

AfD 24 (+1)
SPD 21 (+13)
Linke 20 (-11)
CDU 15 (-7)
FDP 8 (+3)
Green 7 (+2)

Thuringia SPD must really be furious they couldn't have it on the same day as the federal elections.

What sort of government would an election result like that produce in Thuringia? Red-Red-Green with the SPD leader becoming premier? Or could you get a four party coalition of SPD-CDU-FDP and Greens? (is there any national flag that includes red, black, yellow and green??)?

[Хahar 🤔]

Let's check in on the polling for the Thuringia election that's been delayed more times than Half-Life 3 at this point (changes from last election):

AfD 24 (+1)
SPD 21 (+13)
Linke 20 (-11)
CDU 15 (-7)
FDP 8 (+3)
Green 7 (+2)

Thuringia SPD must really be furious they couldn't have it on the same day as the federal elections.

What sort of government would an election result like that produce in Thuringia? Red-Red-Green with the SPD leader becoming premier? Or could you get a four party coalition of SPD-CDU-FDP and Greens? (is there any national flag that includes red, black, yellow and green??)?

Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, São Tomé and Príncipe, and Vanuatu, although in the first three cases black only appears on stars.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Let's check in on the polling for the Thuringia election that's been delayed more times than Half-Life 3 at this point (changes from last election):

AfD 24 (+1)
SPD 21 (+13)
Linke 20 (-11)
CDU 15 (-7)
FDP 8 (+3)
Green 7 (+2)

Thuringia SPD must really be furious they couldn't have it on the same day as the federal elections.

What sort of government would an election result like that produce in Thuringia? Red-Red-Green with the SPD leader becoming premier? Or could you get a four party coalition of SPD-CDU-FDP and Greens? (is there any national flag that includes red, black, yellow and green??)?

Guinea-Bissau coalition?

[Astatine]

Let's check in on the polling for the Thuringia election that's been delayed more times than Half-Life 3 at this point (changes from last election):

AfD 24 (+1)
SPD 21 (+13)
Linke 20 (-11)
CDU 15 (-7)
FDP 8 (+3)
Green 7 (+2)

Thuringia SPD must really be furious they couldn't have it on the same day as the federal elections.

What sort of government would an election result like that produce in Thuringia? Red-Red-Green with the SPD leader becoming premier? Or could you get a four party coalition of SPD-CDU-FDP and Greens? (is there any national flag that includes red, black, yellow and green??)?

Probably a continuation of Red-Red-Green led by SPD, although I would still be somewhat hesitant about those numbers. Popular incumbents can win against all odds.

CDU-SPD-FDP-Greens is called a Zimbabwe coalition.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

NRW Transport Minister Hendrik Wüst is reportet to succeed Armin Laschet as Governor, who is going to announce his decision this evening:

https://twitter.com/WDR2/status/1445392322385137669

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

According to unconfirmed reports, there was a case of Albanian citizens being handed all ballots for the election, although people without German citizenship are only allowed to vote in the local elections.

Why can an Albanian vote in a local election anyway?
I thought the franchise for municipal elections only applies to EU citizens?

Speaking of, it has been reported that several voters of sixteen and seventeen were delivered ballot papers for the federal election even though they were only allowed to vote in the state and local elections.
More and more pundits and constitutional experts predict that this election will be brought to the Federal Constitutional Court.

[Astatine]

NRW Transport Minister Hendrik Wüst is reportet to succeed Armin Laschet as Governor, who is going to announce his decision this evening:

https://twitter.com/WDR2/status/1445392322385137669

It is quite noticeable that the NRW state constitution limited the choices of potential picks for the office of the Minister-President. According to the constitution, the Minister-President needs to be a Member of the Landtag - which Interior Minister Herbert Reul, Health Minister Karl-Josef Laumann and Minister for Homeland, Local Affairs, Housing and Equality (a very... creative Department?) Ina Scharrenbach aren't. They were all considered potential Minister-President material.

[Yeahsayyeah]

They should have given Mrs. Schachenbach the Ministry of soll walks and what is left.

[Middle-aged Europe]

In Berlin, SPD and Greens have decided to continue parallel coalitition talks with both Left and FDP.... which is not quite the definitive decision everyone had expected for today. But, as it stands now, Governing Mayor-designate Franziska Giffey prefers the traffic light, while the Greens and also large parts of Giffey's own party want to continue Red-Green-Red. Hence the compromise. But at least SPD-CDU-FDP, SPD-Greens-CDU, and Greens-CDU-FDP have been eliminated from the contest now. FDP and Left have not showed themselves amused about the prospect of continued parallel talks.

[President Johnson]

Some news out of Berlin: Apparently SPD and Greens differ on the question for a third coalition partner. While Greens would prefer to continue the partnership with Die Linke, most SPD leaders including Governing Mayor designate Franziska Giffey aim a trafficlight coalition with the FDP. Talks with the latter already happened and are expected to continue.

[Astatine]

I really wonder what offer SPD wants make to the FDP to convince them to join a coalition, and Liberals and Greens appear to have some diametrical views in Berlin, especially when it comes to issues such as traffic. Don't see it happening right now, but who knows?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Some news out of Berlin: Apparently SPD and Greens differ on the question for a third coalition partner. While Greens would prefer to continue the partnership with Die Linke, most SPD leaders including Governing Mayor designate Franziska Giffey aim a trafficlight coalition with the FDP. Talks with the latter already happened and are expected to continue.

Within the Berlin SPD the Red-Green-Red option is supported by their Juso youth organization, federal deputy chair Kevin Kühnert, Bundestag member Annika Klose, and a couple of the borough-level SPD chapters.

[President Johnson]

Two new state polls suggest massive SPD gains, mostly at Green expense. CDU continues to struggle.

Baden-Württemberg (note that the next election is in 2026):

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1447863355067277315


More important: NRW (next election in May 2022, Laschet's successor Hendrick Wüst won't have much time to turn it around):

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1447854970972352512

[Yeahsayyeah]

All politics is federal now, it seems.

[DL]

BW won't have a state election until 2026 but NRW has election next Spring and it seems that the SPD should  be pretty heavily favoured to win back a state was was their historic stronghold - especially with Laschet having fall so totally flat on his face

[President Johnson]

Lmao, Bavaria not looking good for Sönnenkönig Söder at this point, though he has plently of time to turn it around. But it disproves the myth that Söder is so popular.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1447977540765769731

[DL]

Lmao, Bavaria not looking good for Sönnenkönig Söder at this point, though he has plently of time to turn it around. But it disproves the myth that Söder is so popular.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1447977540765769731

The CSU has been in power continuously in Bavaria since the end of the Second World War. If an election were held and these were the results, I wonder if there would be a will among the SPD, Greens and FDP (and maybe FW) to create a traffic light or traffic light+FW (whatever you call that) just to oust the CSU from power and let the winds of change blow through Bavaria?