🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Astatine]

In a fit of pedantry, I think the term "Right Liberal" is more appropriate than "European Liberal" for a party like the FDP. Because Europe also has a tradition of Social Liberal parties (cf the Danish ones, the Swiss GreenLiberals - and the Circle of Independents before them), that would also claim the label "liberal" even while being a long, long way ideologically speaking from parties like the two FDPs, the VVD or what LREM has transformed into.

The term "liberal" does fairly universally imply support for capitalism and the market economy - but it isn't entirely true that it universally means "unquestioning opposition to all intervention". In some cases it sort of does, but overall it's a mistake to make out that European Liberalism is somehow assimiable to US libertarianism.

Although I'd add that the FDP and it's predecessor parties always have had a social liberal wing (the DDP to which for instance Theodor Heuß belonged was entirely social liberal), which was more or less influential in the patty's history, with its peak of influence being in the 1970s. Some state parties are still closely associated to this social liberal wing (Rhineland-Palatinate being the primary example). This is something VVD for instance lacks if I am not mistaken (correct me if I'm wrong).

[buritobr]

Why it was considered a so important issue the CDU to have more votes than the AfD?
Even if the AfD got the plurality but not the majority, this party could not elected the minister president.

[Astatine]

Why it was considered a so important issue the CDU to have more votes than the AfD?
Even if the AfD got the plurality but not the majority, this party could not elected the minister president.

Mostly a symbolic victory over the far-right.

[Pick Up the Phone]

In a fit of pedantry, I think the term "Right Liberal" is more appropriate than "European Liberal" for a party like the FDP. Because Europe also has a tradition of Social Liberal parties (cf the Danish ones, the Swiss GreenLiberals - and the Circle of Independents before them), that would also claim the label "liberal" even while being a long, long way ideologically speaking from parties like the two FDPs, the VVD or what LREM has transformed into.

The term "liberal" does fairly universally imply support for capitalism and the market economy - but it isn't entirely true that it universally means "unquestioning opposition to all intervention". In some cases it sort of does, but overall it's a mistake to make out that European Liberalism is somehow assimiable to US libertarianism.

Although I'd add that the FDP and it's predecessor parties always have had a social liberal wing (the DDP to which for instance Theodor Heuß belonged was entirely social liberal), which was more or less influential in the patty's history, with its peak of influence being in the 1970s. Some state parties are still closely associated to this social liberal wing (Rhineland-Palatinate being the primary example). This is something VVD for instance lacks if I am not mistaken (correct me if I'm wrong).

I would agree. Today's FDP (the German one, not the Swiss one) is probably ideologically closer to the Greens than to the VVD. In its current form, it basically offers the following:

Very liberal social policies + business-friendly economic policies/low taxes + selected anti-government policies (e.g., COVID-19).

Its traditional social liberalism may have been temporarily neglected during the Kinkel, Gerhardt and early Westerwelle years. But today, it is once again an essential element of the party.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Why it was considered a so important issue the CDU to have more votes than the AfD?
Even if the AfD got the plurality but not the majority, this party could not elected the minister president.

Pure symbolism, nothing else.

Obviously, the AfD would not have become part of the state government with any result <51%.

_____

Does Wagenknecht have extreme anti-lockdown views?

Not extreme ones. But stupid contrarian views nonetheless.

I understand she also published a book critiquing identity politics, extreme "open borders" positions on immigration etc., and the state of the modern-day left which naturally has provoked a flurry of controversy but I'm more sympathetic to her on that point.

Indeed, she recently published a book in which she praised the PiS (great social policy after all!) and complained about "bizarre minorities" (a.k.a. the most important voter groups of her party).

Of course, this caused a massive uproar within the LINKE and Wagenknecht was almost universally condemned. It might be the best to expel her at this point - the AfD would suit her better anyway.

[buritobr]

The result was a disaster for the sum of left/center-left parties. Linke+SPD+Grüne had only 1/4 of the total vote. Sachsen-Anhalt is not a conservative state like Sachsen. I saw now in Wikipedia that the sum of red red green had ~1/2 of the total vote in Sachsen-Anhalt in 2006 and 2011.

The future of the left/center-left in Germany doesn't look like bright. According to the exit polls, Linke and SPD perform better in the group of >60 voters. In the west, the Linke performed better in the group of young voters, but this party has low share of vote in every age group. SPD performs better in the group of senior voters in the west too.

Unlike what is happening in the english speaking countries, in Germany, the millennials don't vote on the left of their parents and grandparents.

[Pick Up the Phone]

The result was a disaster for the sum of left/center-left parties. Linke+SPD+Grüne had only 1/4 of the total vote. Sachsen-Anhalt is not a conservative state like Sachsen. I saw now in Wikipedia that the sum of red red green had ~1/2 of the total vote in Sachsen-Anhalt in 2006 and 2011.

I may have written this before but it doesn't make any sense to think in these 'bloc' categories (SPD+LINKE+GRÜNE vs. CDU+FDP) when discussing German politics. Many Green voters would never vote for the LINKE but have no problems with the CDU (or are even former CDU supporters). Many LINKE voters detest the SPD but like the anti-system attitude of the AfD. And many SPD voters are pragmatists who feel nostalgic about the sozialliberale coalition their party once had with the FDP.

This is the first point. The second is that Saxony-Anhalt is hardly indicative of any general trend. It is a sparsely populated, aging, demographically crippled (the state lost 25% of its population since 1990!), economically weak Eastern German state where a popular incumbent just won a low-profile election. Meanwhile, in neighboring Thuringia, the LINKE is polling around 35% - which shows you that this has nothing to do with party ideology and everything to do with contextual factors.

The future of the left/center-left in Germany doesn't look like bright. According to the exit polls, Linke and SPD perform better in the group of >60 voters. In the west, the Linke performed better in the group of young voters, but this party has low share of vote in every age group. SPD performs better in the group of senior voters in the west too.

Unlike what is happening in the english speaking countries, in Germany, the millennials don't vote on the left of their parents and grandparents.

I really don't see any evidence for this argument. Compared to the last 10-15 years, the German 'center-left' is in great shape. And obviously, Germany's millennials are clearly to the left of their parents. Just consider the last 'federal' election (i.e. the 2019 European Election).

Greens (Age 18-24 = 34%):



CDU (Age 18-24 = 12%):



AfD (Age 18-24 = 5%):

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1401781433916608516?s=20

This is the second place map. CDU won every direct mandate except that one in the far south. EuropeElects sticks to the Eu color designations, which results in the confusing AFD/CDU color swap. What I inquiring about is the FW candidate, cause usually when they do well in one seat and occasionally get into Landtag's there is an interesting story behind it.

[Astatine]

I had analyzed the correlation between approval for the incumbent Minister-President and party overperformance (relative strength of state party applied to federal polling) already, and the last three elections are in line with the results before. Quite interesting that Reiner Haseloff's approvals went from somewhat mediocre (52 %) 2016 to decent (66 %) in 2021.

[Astatine]

This is the second place map. CDU won every direct mandate except that one in the far south. EuropeElects sticks to the Eu color designations, which results in the confusing AFD/CDU color swap. What I inquiring about is the FW candidate, cause usually when they do well in one seat and occasionally get into Landtag's there is an interesting story behind it.

I found out a bit more about it: The district of Havelberg-Osterburg was represented by CDU politician Nico Schulz from 2002 until 2011 (he won the district thrice, the last time he ran he got 41.8 %) but had to resign from his seat when he got elected mayor of Osterburg (population of 11,000). He won this office with 85 % of the vote in 2018.

He broke with the CDU in 2019 after he criticized an intra-party scandal and didn't get re-elected to the local chairboard, so he founded his own voter group first and joined the Free Voters in 2020.

Basically a popular entrenched local politician trying to win back the seat he represented for three terms. Reminds me a bit of Christoph Schulze in 2014, who won a seat for the Free Voters in Brandenburg directly after leaving the SPD.

[Astatine]

Some interesting findings with regards to obscure minor parties, which are usually quite strong in Saxony-Anhalt:

DieBasis: 1.5 % (+1.5) - anti-lockdown party
Tierschutzpartei: 1.4 % (-0.1) - animal protection party
Gartenpartei: 0.8 % (+0.4) - garden party
Die PARTEI: 0.7 % (+0.2) - satire party
Aktion Tierschutz: 0.6 % (+0.6) - action animal protection
Tierschutzallianz: 0.5 % (-0.5) - animal protection alliance
Gesundheitsforschung: 0.4 % (+0.4) - health research
Piratenpartei: 0.4 % (+0.4) - pirate party
NPD: 0.3 % (-1.6) - right-wing extremist national democrats
WIR2020: 0.2 % (+0.2) - another anti-lockdown party
Freie Bürger: 0.2 % (-0.2) - local party
Humanisten: 0.1 % (+0.1) - humanists
ÖDP: 0.1 % (+0.1) - ecological democrats/conservative greens
Klimaliste: 0.1 % (+0.1) - climate list
LKR: 0.0 % (-0.9) - conservatives split from AfD

DieBasis and Tierschutzpartei will be eligible for federal party funding.

The Judean People's Front and People's Front of Judea Animal Protection Party, Action Animal Protection and Animal Protection Alliance scored 2.5 % in total. Together with the other obscure somewhat greenish parties (Garden, ÖDP, Klimaliste), that's 3.5 % going to fringe parties that have environmental and animal protection as main issue in their platform. One might assume if none of them had run, the Greens might have crossed the psychologically important mark of 6 % and maybe would've even overtaken the liberals.

[RGM2609]

So is a "grand" (rather debatable term given SPD's laughable numbers) coalition the foregone conclusion right now, and were there any polls/people who predicted it?

[Astatine]

So is a "grand" (rather debatable term given SPD's laughable numbers) coalition the foregone conclusion right now, and were there any polls/people who predicted it?

Haseloff is rather reserved about this option as he prefers to have a stable majority. He is gonna invite SPD, FDP and Greens to coalition talks. I think Jamaica (CDU/FDP/Greens) is the least likely option as of now, but both Germany (CDU/SPD/FDP) and Kenya (CDU/SPD/Greens) are still plausible possibilities. If FDP and/or Greens demand too much in coalition talks, it's probably gonna be Black-Red (I can't really call it a "Grand" coalition).

Polling once again overestimated the AfD. The last polling results by each of the three major pollsters (FGW, INSA, Infratest) were like this: CDU 27-30, AfD 23-26, Linke 11-12, SPD 10, Greens 8-9, FDP 6.5-8 and FW 3. CDU was heavily underestimated while AfD, Greens and SPD polled stronger than they would actually do in the end (same with the FDP, but only by a slight margin, and SPD was within the MoE).

[parochial boy]

In a fit of pedantry, I think the term "Right Liberal" is more appropriate than "European Liberal" for a party like the FDP. Because Europe also has a tradition of Social Liberal parties (cf the Danish ones, the Swiss GreenLiberals - and the Circle of Independents before them), that would also claim the label "liberal" even while being a long, long way ideologically speaking from parties like the two FDPs, the VVD or what LREM has transformed into.

The term "liberal" does fairly universally imply support for capitalism and the market economy - but it isn't entirely true that it universally means "unquestioning opposition to all intervention". In some cases it sort of does, but overall it's a mistake to make out that European Liberalism is somehow assimiable to US libertarianism.

Although I'd add that the FDP and it's predecessor parties always have had a social liberal wing (the DDP to which for instance Theodor Heuß belonged was entirely social liberal), which was more or less influential in the patty's history, with its peak of influence being in the 1970s. Some state parties are still closely associated to this social liberal wing (Rhineland-Palatinate being the primary example). This is something VVD for instance lacks if I am not mistaken (correct me if I'm wrong).

I would agree. Today's FDP (the German one, not the Swiss one) is probably ideologically closer to the Greens than to the VVD. In its current form, it basically offers the following:

Very liberal social policies + business-friendly economic policies/low taxes + selected anti-government policies (e.g., COVID-19).

Its traditional social liberalism may have been temporarily neglected during the Kinkel, Gerhardt and early Westerwelle years. But today, it is once again an essential element of the party.

I mean, a review of their Wahlprogramm indicates they want to cut corporation taxes, raise the income level at which you start paying the top rate of income tax, limit social spending, continue privatising the railway and, absolutely insane given the current circumstances - bring the public debt back under 60% of GDP. In stark contrast to Baerbock, who is open to investment funding deficit spending.

While the FDP may have a "social wing" (even the Swiss one does ftr), the centre of gravity of the party is very definitely on the political right - and to the right of the CDU on topics relating to the economy and the welfare state. That's a big difference, to say, the Green Liberals, who have positioned themselves against privatisations, against tax cuts and in favour of building up the welfare state over the last year or so.

[President Johnson]

I'm confident there will be a black-red coalition without the FDP. Latter has indicated not to enter a coalition government for the sake of bolstering Haseloff's majority. I'm not even aware there is any precedent in German history that a party was added to the government not needed to reach a majority.

[Astatine]

I'm confident there will be a black-red coalition without the FDP. Latter has indicated not to enter a coalition government for the sake of bolstering Haseloff's majority. I'm not even aware there is any precedent in German history that a party was added to the government not needed to reach a majority.

It happened some times in the early stages of the republic (1950s especially, for instance CDU/FDP/GB-BHE in Kurt Kiesinger's 2nd state government, CDU/CVP/SPD in Saarland in Egon Reinert's 2nd cabinet...), but those offers nowadays hardly go anywhere.

The FDP was offered to join the government in 2003 in Hesse (Roland Koch) and 2006 in RLP (Kurt Beck) when CDU and SPD respectively had governed with the FDP for some time but gained an overall majority, but the liberals rejected the offer both times. The last time this happened was in 2014 in Thuringia, when Christine Lieberknecht offered the Greens to join the black-red coalition (to form the first Kenya coalition), but that ended differently, as we all know.

[President Johnson]

Greens have now officially declined to join another Kenya coalition. FDP also de facto ruled out a Germany coalition. This leaves Haselhoff with either Black-Red or Jamaica coalition. The former is definitely most likely at this point.

[Astatine]

A point that cannot be ignored anymore is the fact that incumbency really matters a lot in state elections nowadays and how that should be handled in the future. In only 5 out of 25 state elections since September 2013, incumbents have been defeated in their bids for re-election (including the 2 guys from Bremen who resigned from their position after poor results). Meanwhile, between 2009 and 2013, 4 incumbent Minister-Presidents were defeated (Rüttgers, Ahlhaus, Mappus, McAllister). This trend might have to do with the surge of the AfD (especially in the East), as nowadays there is less polarization between CDU/FDP and SPD/Greens camps like in the past but rather the democratic parties united against the extremist right.

The question is whether it's really "fair" that a party has this increasingly growing advantage of incumbency, especially if Minister-Presidents resign within their term so their respective successors can build up that popularity. The most prominent example might be AKK, who had approvals of 80 % when she got re-elected in 2017 and stated that only if CDU became largest party again, she would continue to serve in any government (otherwise she'd retire). Almost 50 % of CDU voters that year stated that they voted CDU because of her, but less than one year after the election she resigned. Subsequently, her successor has 4 years of building up his profile although nobody knew him when the Landtag elected him to his office (the only election he ever ran for as direct and not list candiate was for a County executive office and he lost by double digits).

It remains to be seen what the next state elections will bring, but this trend is something that cannot be ignored in the future anymore. If I remember correctly, Italian regional parliaments automatically get dissolved when the regional Governor resigns/dies. Would that be a solution for Germany? I don't know, but I am not sure whether status quo might make more harm than good to political culture and democracy.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Why it was considered a so important issue the CDU to have more votes than the AfD?

Because many people, journalists included, don't understand our political system and care for symbolic "wins".

[Pick Up the Phone]

I mean, a review of their Wahlprogramm

Which rarely gives one a realistic idea of a party's ideological coordinates.

indicates they want to cut corporation taxes, raise the income level at which you start paying the top rate of income tax, limit social spending, continue privatising the railway and, absolutely insane given the current circumstances - bring the public debt back under 60% of GDP. In stark contrast to Baerbock, who is open to investment funding deficit spending.

This is a minor issue, at least for the Greens. Neither Baerbock nor Habeck are hardliners when it comes to questions of taxation or public spending. It's not why people vote for them and they know it.

While the FDP may have a "social wing" (even the Swiss one does ftr), the centre of gravity of the party is very definitely on the political right

Depends on what you define as 'the right' - the German political debate in the 2010s/2020s revolves almost exclusively around social issues and not around taxation or the welfare state. The latter are considered of secondary importance by almost all parties and also by most voters. It might be that you give too much weight to them?

And when it comes to social issues, the FDP (and especially its your wing, the JuLis) has been in the vanguard on a wide range of matters: same-sex marriage, cannabis legalization, assisted suicide, surrogate motherhood, trans issues, immigration policy... In this sense, the party is indeed much closer to the Greens than to the CDU. And the same is true for the demographic composition of its electorate (younger, more educated, more urban, less religious).

[Pick Up the Phone]

Why it was considered a so important issue the CDU to have more votes than the AfD?

Because many people, journalists included, don't understand our political system and care for symbolic "wins".

I would contest this. They care for symbolic 'wins' BECAUSE they know how the German political system works.

[parochial boy]

I mean, a review of their Wahlprogramm

Which rarely gives one a realistic idea of a party's ideological coordinates.

indicates they want to cut corporation taxes, raise the income level at which you start paying the top rate of income tax, limit social spending, continue privatising the railway and, absolutely insane given the current circumstances - bring the public debt back under 60% of GDP. In stark contrast to Baerbock, who is open to investment funding deficit spending.

This is a minor issue, at least for the Greens. Neither Baerbock nor Habeck are hardliners when it comes to questions of taxation or public spending. It's not why people vote for them and they know it.

While the FDP may have a "social wing" (even the Swiss one does ftr), the centre of gravity of the party is very definitely on the political right

Depends on what you define as 'the right' - the German political debate in the 2010s/2020s revolves almost exclusively around social issues and not around taxation or the welfare state. The latter are considered of secondary importance by almost all parties and also by most voters. It might be that you give too much weight to them?

And when it comes to social issues, the FDP (and especially its your wing, the JuLis) has been in the vanguard on a wide range of matters: same-sex marriage, cannabis legalization, assisted suicide, surrogate motherhood, trans issues, immigration policy... In this sense, the party is indeed much closer to the Greens than to the CDU. And the same is true for the demographic composition of its electorate (younger, more educated, more urban, less religious).

I remember a similar back and forth on Macron in 2017, but being progressive on cultural issues is not enough to make a party left wing. The FDP quite clearly and explicitely sets itself as being in favour of more free markets, less state intervention, a smaller welfare state. A party that takes those lines can not ever be understood as a party of the political left, regardless of its attitude towards trans rights or refugees. And even if they aren't the most emotional topic right now, I dip in and out of following German politics enough to know that things like the Corona debt, or even Hartz IV are topics that get coverage.

In that respect, the FDP as a clearly pro-market party are distinguished not only from the left, but also from the Social Liberal parties that generally do support a stronger welfare state or more interventionist economic policies. And when, for all that the Greens are moderates, their attitude towards those things is very clearly pointing in the opposite direction (Baerbock has talk about "overcoming Hartz IV" even this year, for example).

I mean, I know there is a contextual imperative to downplay this in light of a potential future traffic light coalition - but it doesn't change the fact that a party that supports free markets and a redistribution of wealth in favour of the wealthy is a right wing party.

[Astatine]

A point I might add is that the perception of "right" and "left" is inherently different in Germany in comparison to other countries since the "right-wing brand" is perceived toxic to the average German and associated with national socialism.

Neither CDU nor FDP who most political scientists would describe as center-right would campaign on being center-right or right-wing but always refer to themselves as centrist - And so do other parties, such as SPD during Schröder times when they campaigned as "The new center". Generally spoken, Germans perceive a lot of positions and parties as center of the political spectrum (perception of political parties on the right-left scale with 1=left, 6=center and 11=right):



Economic positions really don't matter in the German perception of the left-right concept. Right and left are almost fully associated with cultural conservatism or progressivism.

[Pick Up the Phone]

I remember a similar back and forth on Macron in 2017, but being progressive on cultural issues is not enough to make a party left wing.

Well, I didn't call the FDP left-wing. I also wouldn't call the Greens left-wing. All I did was pointing at the various similarities between both parties. And these similarities obviously exist.

The FDP quite clearly and explicitely sets itself as being in favour of more free markets, less state intervention, a smaller welfare state. A party that takes those lines can not ever be understood as a party of the political left, regardless of its attitude towards trans rights or refugees.

Again, I haven't even insinuated that the FDP is left-wing. It seem that you have mistaken my argument?

And not that it matters - but I would indeed claim that a party's position on immigration is today a much better indicator of its ideological core than its position on the welfare state. Your categorization appears a little dogmatic/static in this regard.  

And even if they aren't the most emotional topic right now, I dip in and out of following German politics enough to know that things like the Corona debt, or even Hartz IV are topics that get coverage.

Sure, they get coverage. But I still believe that you greatly overestimate their relative importance. Statista has actually a nice poll of Germany's "most important problems" (change between Spring 2018 and Winter 2020):

Environment/Climate Change: 14% -> 27% (No 1 issue after COVID/Health)
Economy: 3% -> 23% (mostly COVID-related)
Education: 22% -> 22%
Inflation: 10% -> 14%
Unemployment: 8% -> 12% (mostly COVID-related)
Housing: 20% -> 12%
(...)
Pensions: 16% -> 7%
Taxes: 3% -> 3%

People care about the general state of the economy or COVID-induced unemployment, no doubt. But they certainly don't care about lower corporate taxes or the like. If anything, I would even assume that a considerable number of center-left voters would support them if it helps the economy to recover.

I mean, I know there is a contextual imperative to downplay this in light of a potential future traffic light coalition - but it doesn't change the fact that a party that supports free markets and a redistribution of wealth in favour of the wealthy is a right wing party.

Again, I think that's a pretty dogmatic view that I would certainly not agree with. Being 'right-wing' is something different in my books - namely, an anti-egalitarian worldview that necessarily transcends the redistributive dimension.

___

Economic positions really don't matter in the German perception of the left-right concept. Right and left are almost fully associated with cultural conservatism or progressivism.

Indeed. In Germany, no one would call a market liberal party a "right-wing" party. It doesn't make any sense.

[buritobr]

Why it was considered a so important issue the CDU to have more votes than the AfD?

Because many people, journalists included, don't understand our political system and care for symbolic "wins".

I would contest this. They care for symbolic 'wins' BECAUSE they know how the German political system works.

I didn't understand