🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Astatine]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1401496212210171908

Postal ballots are not included, so we might actually see an increase in turnout compared to 2016 - If that's the case, we would see the third consecutive rise in voting participation; 44.4 % (2006) -> 51.2 % (2011) -> 61.1 % (2016).

[jaichind]

Prediction

CDU      28
AFD      23
Linke    13
SPD      12
Green     9
FDP        6
FW         3

Who are you supporting?
I can’t make my mind up, but I don’t want AfD in (state) government.

I am for AfD although I suspect they will underperform.

[buritobr]

My prediction

CDU 30, AFD 23, Linke 12, SPD 11, Grüne 10, FDP 8, Sonstige 6

German polls are usually accurate. So, it is better not to forecast a result very different to the polls

[Kabam]

Prediction

CDU 29
AfD 25
The Left 10.5
SPD 9.5
FDP 8
Greens 6.5
Free Voters 3.5
Others 8

[Aurelio21]

Regarding the turnout: This might still be the election with the second highest turnout of elections in Saxony-Anhalt in reunified Germany.
Here (4 pm) are numbers to compare:
https://www.wahlrecht.de/news/2021/landtagswahl-sachsen-anhalt-2021.html
Note that except for the last row these are only election day turnouts.
Historical absentee vote percentage shares can be found here:
https://www.mdr.de/nachrichten/sachsen-anhalt/landtagswahl/briefwahl-sachsen-anhalt-fragen-antworten-100.html
A not represantative poll of using absentee or election day vote can be found here:
https://www.mdr.de/nachrichten/sachsen-anhalt/landtagswahl/frage-der-woche-grosse-mehrheit-wird-waehlen-gehen100.html
For me, even if the absentee vote is about 14 percentage points share, the turnout will be slightly higher than 2016.
As the AfD tradionally activates former non-voter, a high turnout points to a good result for them. The election 1998 was the one with the highest turnout - when the SPD had still a polulist bend, the CDU was in low regard due to the last days of the Kohl government - and an obscure extreme right wing party DVU scored nearly 13 % - which no poll indicated.
This can happen again. The state media like ARD and ZDF are not trusted by a large percentage, thus it might happen the same as in the 2020 US election polling and the high number of undecided voters which where in reality shy republicans or voters which were not reachable for those pollsters.
Furthermore: The CDU election campaign was mainly a virtual reality and digital campaigning - an unusual decision for a party with an mainly 65+ electorate.  The other parties in government or close to the CDU (like FDP and Free Voters) had anemic election campaign - like estimated 40 people at the final rally of the SPD. Only the AfD had some reasonable visitorship.

About the polls: The trends of the last days are more conclusive. Greens and FDP have a bad last minute trend like in the saxony 2019 Landtag election, there was a noticeable last-minute-swing from these parties to the CDU because the CDU campaign made the last minute argument to prevent the AfD to become the strongest party. My gut feeling says this might be the outcome:

CDU: 31
AfD: 26
Linke: 11
SPD: 11
Greens: 7
FDP: 5-6
Others: 9-10 incl. 2 % Free voters

[Pick Up the Phone]

As the AfD tradionally activates former non-voter, a high turnout points to a good result for them.

That the AfD will get a 'good' result (>20%) is obvious - although I wouldn't use the term "traditionally" here. Just like many other protest parties, the AfD mobilized quite a few low-propensity voters during its emergence period (2013-17); but that does not mean that the rest of them also leans to the right.

And, honestly, the result of the AfD is not really important as long as they don't become the strongest party. And even that would only be meaningful on the symbolic level. Not in terms of coalition building.

and an obscure extreme right wing party DVU scored nearly 13 % - which no poll indicated.

The DVU was anything but obscure back then. Both its previous election results (6.2% in Bremen; 6.3% in Saxony-Anhalt) and its financial backing by Gerhard Frey were widely discussed.

This can happen again.

Sure, many things can happen. But, again, it's pretty meaningless when the real question is: Do we see once again a Kenya coalition - or will it be necessary to include the FDP as well?

The state media like ARD and ZDF are not trusted by a large percentage,

I don't know anybody who doesn't trust them, let alone 'a large percentage'. This may be the case among Querdenker and far-right lunatics but the median citizen has a high degree of trust in ARD & Co. (easily 70%+).

thus it might happen the same as in the 2020 US election polling and the high number of undecided voters which where in reality shy republicans or voters which were not reachable for those pollsters.

Highly unlikely. Different polling methodologies, different electorates, different circumstances (national vs. state, person vs. party...).

Also, the narrative of 'shy AfD voters' does not really explain why the AfD has underperformed in most recent state elections.

Furthermore: The CDU election campaign was mainly a virtual reality and digital campaigning - an unusual decision for a party with an mainly 65+ electorate. The other parties in government or close to the CDU (like FDP and Free Voters) had anemic election campaign - like estimated 40 people at the final rally of the SPD. Only the AfD had some reasonable visitorship.

Bernie Sanders did as well. It's a populist thing, you know...

Seriously: rally size is an extremely weak indicator for election results. For many reasons I'm too lazy to explain now.

[President Johnson]

I hope the Greens flop big time to stop their momentum.

[Astatine]

ZDF/FWG exit poll:

CDU: 35
AfD: 23.5
Left: 11
SPD: 8
Greens: 6
FDP: 7
Free Voters: 3

[Astatine]

I hope the Greens flop big time to stop their momentum.

You jinxed it.

[Pick Up the Phone]

LOL @AfD

Unexpectedly strong gains for CDU.

Minor losses for SPD, minor gains for Grüne.

Not much to see here.

=

Kenya again, more ministries for CDU and less for SPD+Grüne.

[President Johnson]

[President Johnson]

I hope the Greens flop big time to stop their momentum.

You jinxed it.

Well, unfortunately, the SPD won't benefit with this disastrous result.

This result is a huge relief for Armin Laschet though.

[Oryxslayer]

Union: The reports of our death have been greatly exaggerated.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Union: The reports of our death have been greatly exaggerated.

As most such reports are. But, yes, major relief for Laschet and Haseloff.

[Mike88]

Very strong result for CDU. Waiting to see polls after this State election to see if there's an Union bump.

[President Johnson]

It's interesting that all Minister-Presidents since spring 2017 have been reelected so far. The incumbency is a huge factor these days, especially with this party system.

[Geoffrey Howe]

When do the polling stations close?

[Astatine]

When do the polling stations close?

They closed at 6 pm.

[Aurelio21]

As the AfD tradionally activates former non-voter, a high turnout points to a good result for them.

That the AfD will get a 'good' result (>20%) is obvious - although I wouldn't use the term "traditionally" here. Just like many other protest parties, the AfD mobilized quite a few low-propensity voters during its emergence period (2013-17); but that does not mean that the rest of them also leans to the right.

And, honestly, the result of the AfD is not really important as long as they don't become the strongest party. And even that would only be meaningful on the symbolic level. Not in terms of coalition building.

and an obscure extreme right wing party DVU scored nearly 13 % - which no poll indicated.

The DVU was anything but obscure back then. Both its previous election results (6.2% in Bremen; 6.3% in Saxony-Anhalt) and its financial backing by Gerhard Frey were widely discussed.

This can happen again.

Sure, many things can happen. But, again, it's pretty meaningless when the real question is: Do we see once again a Kenya coalition - or will it be necessary to include the FDP as well?

The state media like ARD and ZDF are not trusted by a large percentage,

I don't know anybody who doesn't trust them, let alone 'a large percentage'. This may be the case among Querdenker and far-right lunatics but the median citizen has a high degree of trust in ARD & Co. (easily 70%+).

thus it might happen the same as in the 2020 US election polling and the high number of undecided voters which where in reality shy republicans or voters which were not reachable for those pollsters.

Highly unlikely. Different polling methodologies, different electorates, different circumstances (national vs. state, person vs. party...).

Also, the narrative of 'shy AfD voters' does not really explain why the AfD has underperformed in most recent state elections.

Furthermore: The CDU election campaign was mainly a virtual reality and digital campaigning - an unusual decision for a party with an mainly 65+ electorate. The other parties in government or close to the CDU (like FDP and Free Voters) had anemic election campaign - like estimated 40 people at the final rally of the SPD. Only the AfD had some reasonable visitorship.

Bernie Sanders did as well. It's a populist thing, you know...

Seriously: rally size is an extremely weak indicator for election results. For many reasons I'm too lazy to explain now.

Let's wait what the result will be. My prognosis about the trends what happened was about right. Greens+FDP severely underperformed as those who wanted to prevent an AfD victory

I take no sides in this.

You are the typical green voter - insulting anyone who is not 100 % on your line as "Lunatic" and "Querdenker". I have worked in Saxony-Anhalt, there is a certain mistrust of a large percentage, not all, towards the state and state media. If you are living in an university town in the west of Germany, maybe you do not know what the STASI was.

If you had lived or worked in Saxony-Anhalt, you would know there are lot of more critical thinking voters.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Not that it needs to be mentioned but getting around 11% in an Eastern German state is absolutely pathetic for the LINKE. The party really needs to do some soul searching after the federal elections.

[Geoffrey Howe]

When do the polling stations close?

They closed at 6 pm.

Ah right. It’s still 1715 in my head!
Do we know turnout?

[Astatine]

When do the polling stations close?

They closed at 6 pm.

Ah right. It’s still 1715 in my head!
Do we know turnout?

According to ZDF/FGW, about 61 % (no significant change compared to 2016 when it was 61.1 %).

[Logical]

A win for the incumbent but not necessarily the CDU imo.

[President Johnson]

#EastGermanyTitanGenosseOlaf

[Pick Up the Phone]

A win for the incumbent but not necessarily the CDU imo.

Why? There are less voters in all Eastern states (Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Thuringia, Brandenburg...) combined than in Laschet's North Rhine-Westphalia alone.* Their Chancellor preferences are of secondary importance for the federal elections. And always have been.

I don't like it but the CDU is the clear winner of this election. For at least four reasons:

(1) Defended the status quo in the last state election before September.
(2) Significantly overperformed their polling results and attracted many voters from SPD/Linke/etc.
(3) Proved that a clear anti-AfD strategy works (think of the Stahlknecht incident) - even in the East.
(4) Strengthened and secured Laschet's intra-party position.

This is literally the best imaginable scenario for the CDU.
_____

*I really think that this is a fact that cannot be highlighted often enough. Otherwise one can easily get a wrong (or at least distorted) idea of federal politics. The relative population difference between North Rhine-Westphalia and Saxony-Anhalt is roughly the same as the one between CA and AL.