🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[buritobr]

The result for die Linke was not a disaster. It was similar to 2016 in both states. The elections took place in 2 states die Linke perform usually bad.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

BW Update: Size of the Landtag is now 148 seats, and Greens + SPD would end up winning 75 seats. That's one more than needed for majority.

https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1371202015121043465

Would you agree with me on my opinion that BW has the most complicated (albeit not complex, that would be HH and HB) of all German states?

[President Johnson]

BW Update: Size of the Landtag is now 148 seats, and Greens + SPD would end up winning 75 seats. That's one more than needed for majority.

https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1371202015121043465

Would you agree with me on my opinion that BW has the most complicated (albeit not complex, that would be HH and HB) of all German states?

Absolutely. That needs to be reformed, though the CDU has always blocked a modifaction (requiring a two-thirds majority). If I'm correct, the seats are being allocated by individual results of the candidates in their district. So 20 seats for party X means the 20 best performing candidates are elected, but subdivided into the four governing districts for equal representation. Popular vote winners of each district automatically win the seat though, no matter how weak the plurality is. AfD's candidate won the Mannheim seat in 2016 with 19% of the vote.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Could you let me know where Eberdingen-Nussdorf is on this map? I was there over Christmas in 2019 and am curious

[Pick Up the Phone]

New Infratest numbers:

BW:
Greens 32.6
CDU 23.5
AfD 9.8
SPD 11.5
FDP 10.4

Majority for Green-Red (75/148)

RLP:
SPD 36.1
CDU 26.5
Greens 9.3
AfD 8.6
FDP 5.6
FW 5.3

Majority for Traffic light (56/101), Red-Green might become possible (50/101)

Mashallah! The fascist AfD below 10% in BW (and in fifth place)!

Interesting: Bodenseekreis (No 67 on the map) is a very wealthy district that has been a conservative stronghold for decades (and is still represented by a CDU MP in the Bundestag). But then it started to trend green - and today an absolute majority voted for GRÜNE-FDP.

Greens: 36.8% + FDP: 13.3% = 50.1%

Who would have thought that ten years ago?

[urutzizu]

Could you let me know where Eberdingen-Nussdorf is on this map? I was there over Christmas in 2019 and am curious

Its number 13 (Landtagswahlkreis Vaihingen). Eberdingen voted 33-25 for Greens btw.  Nice place, have been there too, cool Celtic Museum there also.

[President Johnson]

Could you let me know where Eberdingen-Nussdorf is on this map? I was there over Christmas in 2019 and am curious

In District 13, which is neighboring the 6th, which is my homedistrict. These towns are just a few miles from here. German Wikipedia: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landtagswahlkreis_Vaihingen

[Yeahsayyeah]

3,6 percent for Die Linke is actually their best result in a Baden-Württemberg state election.

[Astatine]

The result for die Linke was not a disaster. It was similar to 2016 in both states. The elections took place in 2 states die Linke perform usually bad.

When there is not much room to fall, the Left can't lose much. In RLP, the Left gradually lost from 3.0 % (2011) over 2.8 % (2016) to 2.5 % (2021). It's probably even worse than the 2006 result.

Well, the thing is, the Left usually performs bad in quite a lot of states (Bavaria, BW, RLP, Lower Saxony, Schleswig-Holstein and NRW to some degree).

[JimJamUK]

What would be the differences between the Greens going into coalition with the SPD and FDP vs continuing in coalition with the CDU?

[buritobr]

Yes, die Linke performs better in the east and in the big cities in the west. Stuttgart and Mainz are not very big cities.

Well, but these few Linke vote today could have damaged the possibility of a red-green majority in both states.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Yes, die Linke performs better in the east and in the big cities in the west. Stuttgart and Mainz are not very big cities.

   With over 635,000 inhabitants, Stuttgart is the sixth-mst populous city of Germany.

[Former President tack50]

Why has BW switched so heavily to the left? (or well, to be precise, to Grüne in particular). Wasn't it ruled by CDU for decades up until like 2011 much like neighbouring Bavaria?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yes, die Linke performs better in the east and in the big cities in the west. Stuttgart and Mainz are not very big cities.

Stuttgart is Germany's sixth-largest city after Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, Cologne, and Frankfurt. It's just so that it is a big city in a big, mostly conservative state.

The West German states where the Left usually performs best are Bremen (a city-state with roughly the same population as Stuttgart) and Saarland (Germany's smallest non-city-state, containing only a single city with more than 100,000 inhabitants).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Yes, die Linke performs better in the east and in the big cities in the west. Stuttgart and Mainz are not very big cities.

Stuttgart is Germany's sixth-largest city after Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, Cologne, and Frankfurt. It's just so that it is a big city in a big, mostly conservative state.

The West German states where the Left usually performs best are Bremen (a city-state with roughly the same population as Stuttgart) and Saarland (which contains only a single city with more than 100,000 inhabitants) and Hesse.

[Alcibiades]

Why has BW switched so heavily to the left? (or well, to be precise, to Grüne in particular). Wasn't it ruled by CDU for decades up until like 2011 much like neighbouring Bavaria?

I’m sure some of the German posters will be able to give you a more detailed answer, but my understanding is that it’s a combination of voters getting tired of the CDU after so long in power, Kretschmann being very personally popular, and the Green’s somewhat small-c conservative eco-liberalism being a very good fit for the state (with Freiburg and Tübingen providing a base as two of Germany’s most environmentalist cities). It’s also worth bearing in mind that Baden-Württemberg is much less conservative than Bavaria.

[Astatine]

Why has BW switched so heavily to the left? (or well, to be precise, to Grüne in particular). Wasn't it ruled by CDU for decades up until like 2011 much like neighbouring Bavaria?

Because Greens are essentially a conservative party in BW.

The change in government in 2011 happened because the incumbent CDU Governor and the national CDU/FDP government both were unpopular, and Fukushima contributed to a "green hype" back then, that elevated Winfried Kretschmann to his position. He is very moderate and a true Suabian who could appeal to many CDU voters, so his popularity improved greatly. In 2016, the CDU nominated a no-name candidate and as Germans love their incumbents (and Kretschmann especially), he got a second term. This year's candidate Susanne Eisenmann wasn't popular either, and with the good national trend for the Greens Kretschmann could be reelected easily.

On federal level, that's still different though. The CDU still over overperforms in relation to the national popular vote, but so do the Greens and FDP (BW is also called the core state for the Liberals as the German liberal movement originated there and the party has been in Parliament constantly for all of its existence - BW even had a FDP Minister-President once!). It was always difficult territory for the center-left/SPD, but by being moderate in style and appearing pragmatic, the Greens sucked up much of the center lane that votes CDU on federal level.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yes, die Linke performs better in the east and in the big cities in the west. Stuttgart and Mainz are not very big cities.

Stuttgart is Germany's sixth-largest city after Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, Cologne, and Frankfurt. It's just so that it is a big city in a big, mostly conservative state.

The West German states where the Left usually performs best are Bremen (a city-state with roughly the same population as Stuttgart) and Saarland (which contains only a single city with more than 100,000 inhabitants) and Hesse.

Hesse comes only fourth after Bremen, Saarland, and Hamburg though.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Why has BW switched so heavily to the left? (or well, to be precise, to Grüne in particular). Wasn't it ruled by CDU for decades up until like 2011 much like neighbouring Bavaria?

The change in government in 2011 happened because the incumbent CDU Governor and the national CDU/FDP government both were unpopular, and Fukushima contributed to a "green hype" back then, that elevated Winfried Kretschmann to his position. He is very moderate and a true Suabian who could appeal to many CDU voters, so his popularity improved greatly.

Well, and because of this:

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Why has BW switched so heavily to the left? (or well, to be precise, to Grüne in particular). Wasn't it ruled by CDU for decades up until like 2011 much like neighbouring Bavaria?

The Stuttgart 21 protests, which were brutally quelled by CDU Governor Stefan Mappus, plus the Fukushima nuclear disaster prior to the 2011 sate elections.
Moreover, as you pointed out, the Swabian Greenservaties have nothing in common with the Green Kreuzberg hipsters (aside from their anti-vaxx stance).

[Astatine]

Yes, die Linke performs better in the east and in the big cities in the west. Stuttgart and Mainz are not very big cities.

Stuttgart is Germany's sixth-largest city after Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, Cologne, and Frankfurt. It's just so that it is a big city in a big, mostly conservative state.

The West German states where the Left usually performs best are Bremen (a city-state with roughly the same population as Stuttgart) and Saarland (Germany's smallest non-city-state, containing only a single city with more than 100,000 inhabitants).

That's mostly thanks to Sarrois Napoléon Oskar Lafontaine, as soon as he retires, the party will see drop in votes, but as they already built a base in many towns and communities, it's likely that it won't be too extreme, though the Lafontainian records of 21 % and 16 % (25 % in the Saarbrücken district) will never be broken again.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Moreover, as you pointed out, the Swabian Greenservaties have nothing in common with the Green Kreuzberg hipsters (aside from their anti-vaxx stance).

Since when do they have an anti-vaxx stance again?  

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Moreover, as you pointed out, the Swabian Greenservaties have nothing in common with the Green Kreuzberg hipsters (aside from their anti-vaxx stance).

Since then do they have an anti-vaxx stance again? 

Which groups of those do you mean?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Moreover, as you pointed out, the Swabian Greenservaties have nothing in common with the Green Kreuzberg hipsters (aside from their anti-vaxx stance).

Since then do they have an anti-vaxx stance again? 

Which groups of those do you mean?

Both, but only rhetorically, because neither one actually has an anti-vaxx stance.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Moreover, as you pointed out, the Swabian Greenservaties have nothing in common with the Green Kreuzberg hipsters (aside from their anti-vaxx stance).

Since then do they have an anti-vaxx stance again? 

Which groups of those do you mean?

Both, but only rhetorically, because neither one actually has an anti-vaxx stance.

I've heard and read it several times that there is a correlation between Green strongholds and anti-vaxxer hotspots, SPIEGEL TV, the Zeit, several ARD news magazines, extra 3 and the heute show reported about that issue, and if such leftwing media formats realize that and thus basically attacking their own base reader-/viewership, it has to be true.