🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

BTW:

Do you think Gov. Bodo Ramelow‘s Linke will also collapse below 20% in Thüringen next month, as seen yesterday, or will there be a rally-effect for the incumbent governor, also as seen yesterday ?

No, he's got the incumbent's bonus. Plus, he is much more moderate than his other East German colleagues.

[Astatine]

BTW:

Do you think Gov. Bodo Ramelow‘s Linke will also collapse below 20% in Thüringen next month, as seen yesterday, or will there be a rally-effect for the incumbent governor, also as seen yesterday ?

No, he's got the incumbent's bonus. Plus, he is much more moderate than his other East German colleagues.

This. I could see the CDU vote collapsing instead, as happened in Brandenburg. The Left has a big incumbency bonus with a popular and down-to-Earth Governor who is even respected among moderate Christian Democrats such as former Governor Christine Lieberknecht (I could imagine that if she had won reelection in 2014, CDU would be favorite for the Thuringia elections now as she was still quite popular in spite of some scandals). CDU leader Mike Mohring pandered to AfD in 2014 (which was more of eurosceptical party including some conservatives, libertarians, national consevatives and far right extremists back then) to avoid a red-red-green coalition, and this could hurt him permanently as a vote for CDU in Thuringia would not be perceived a vote against AfD. I even could see the Left getting above 30 % of the votes, with SPD and Greens on a low level.
I would not say it's unlikely CDU becomes third largest party (although it should not be forgotten that the party has strong roots in several parts of the state). If future polls suggest a red-red-green majority, I could even see a boost in favor of FDP (to avoid that coalition tactically, as the race for #1 could already be over).

Early estimates for Thuringia (2014 result in brackets) - quite vague until new polls are being conducted:
The Left 25-33 % (28.2 %)
AfD 23-26 % (10.6 %)
CDU 17-23 % (33.5 %)
Green 7-12 % (5.7 %)
SPD 6-10 % (12.4 %)
FDP 3-6 % (2.5 %)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[rob in cal]

Getting tired of all these center to center right votes being flushed down the toilet by missing the threshold like in saxony. Looks like it may happen again in Thurigia with fdp leading the way.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[urutzizu]

Getting tired of all these center to center right votes being flushed down the toilet by missing the threshold like in saxony. Looks like it may happen again in Thurigia with fdp leading the way.

Way things are going it will soon be the SPD missing thresholds and wasting votes for the left too, so no worries.

Ironically CDU-->AFD Voters in Saxony had the opposite effect to the one they intended. As they make traditional majorities more difficult, their reviled Greens become a necessary partner in Government. In terms of votes the AFD was quite clearly the ones who won on Sunday, but in actual Governing power it was the Greens, who will now have to be included in two more state Governments and will therefore have even more influence in the Bundesrat on legislation.

In this sense proportional systems are not immune to a kind "spoiler effect" that is found in FPTP. When there are no strong left/right blocs like say in Denmark, then voting for a more radical party on ones own side can actually have the effect of pushing the next government to the opposite ideological side.
(SPD-->Linke voters in 2005, or M-->SD voters in Sweden last year are more examples of this)
One of the reasons why I dont think that Proportionality is a great solution all to the problems of FPTP, although still slightly preferable.

[Hnv1]

What’s with the FW winning that seat north east of Berlin?

[urutzizu]

What’s with the FW winning that seat north east of Berlin?

It was the constituency in which the Party leader Péter Vida was running. He is the chairman of the local council in Bernau there, the municipality which includes 2/3 of the Constituencys electorate.
They put a lot of effort into winning it, because winning a constituency allows a party to gain representation even without passing the 5% Threshold. In the end they got exactly 5%, so it wasnt necessary.

[urutzizu]

In the Municipality of Altenstadt, Hesse (Pop.12000) the Neo-Nazi NPD Politician Stefan Jagsch has been elected Chairman of the Ward of Waldsiedlung - with the Votes of CDU, SPD and FDP on the Council.


(Commons)

Reasoning for this - which has caused controversy nationwide - was that they basically had nobody else that wanted to do it, especially no one young and who could deal with email and computers. Is this the toll that urbanisation has taken?

The NPD got 10% in Altenstadt in the local elections, as the AFD was not running, the AFD got 17,5% in the State elections in that Constituency.
Stefan Jagsch is the vice-chairman and quaestor of the NPD in Hesse, and has even been in the international media for an Incident in 2016 when a number of Syrians rescued him after he crashed his car - the same Syrians he had previously called "invaders" and "lawless primates".  
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/22/syrians-rescue-german-far-right-stefan-jagsch-from-car-crash-wreckage
https://www.hessenschau.de/politik/npd-politiker-von-cdu-spd-und-fdp-zum-ortsvorsteher-gewaehlt,npd-ortsvorsteher-jagsch-100.html

[Tender Branson]

In the Municipality of Altenstadt, Hesse (Pop.12000) the Neo-Nazi NPD Politician Stefan Jagsch has been elected Chairman of the Ward of Waldsiedlung - with the Votes of CDU, SPD and FDP on the Council.


(Commons)

Reasoning for this - which has caused controversy nationwide - was that they basically had nobody else that wanted to do it, especially no one young and who could deal with email and computers. Is this the toll that urbanisation has taken?

The NPD got 10% in Altenstadt in the local elections, as the AFD was not running, the AFD got 17,5% in the State elections in that Constituency.
Stefan Jagsch is the vice-chairman and quaestor of the NPD in Hesse, and has even been in the international media for an Incident in 2016 when a number of Syrians rescued him after he crashed his car - the same Syrians he had previously called "invaders" and "lawless primates".  
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/22/syrians-rescue-german-far-right-stefan-jagsch-from-car-crash-wreckage
https://www.hessenschau.de/politik/npd-politiker-von-cdu-spd-und-fdp-zum-ortsvorsteher-gewaehlt,npd-ortsvorsteher-jagsch-100.html

This is highly ironic ...

The Syrian helpers are probably being deported sooner or later, while this Nazi will get a community funded Versorgungsposten.

[President Johnson]

It's official: Winfried Kretschmann, Minister-President of Baden-Württemberg, today announced he will run for reelection to a third term in March 2021. There was some speculation he might step down after the election due to his age (he's 71 now). Chances are high the first and only Green Party head of state of a state wins again due to high popularity (his approval ratings are mostly in the 70s). He's more moderate than the national Greens.

https://twitter.com/SWRAktuellEil/status/1172065443827392512

[Tender Branson]

New Thüringen poll for the state election next month:



Compared with 2014:

CDU: -12%
Left: n.c.
SPD: -4%
AfD: +14%
Greens: +2%
FDP: +2%

[Former President tack50]

And finally, a German state gets a negative majority and even red-red-green wouldn't save it.

What happens in that scenario?

[President Johnson]

And finally, a German state gets a negative majority and even red-red-green wouldn't save it.

What happens in that scenario?

This would be utterly terrible, assuming the FDP doesn't fall under 5%. But if the result is actually like this, maybe the Left and CDU are at least engaging in talks. My assumption is that any negotiations will collapse and a new election early next year is called. With undetermined outcome.

It's insane 25% vote for party, whose state leader is a literal nazi.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

And finally, a German state gets a negative majority and even red-red-green wouldn't save it.

What happens in that scenario?

This would be utterly terrible, assuming the FDP doesn't fall under 5%. But if the result is actually like this, maybe the Left and CDU are at least engaging in talks. My assumption is that any negotiations will collapse and a new election early next year is called. With undetermined outcome.

Such a result would be interesting as thrice in a row the AfD would finish runner-up to three different (!) governing parties.

[urutzizu]

Brandenburg is going to get a SPD-CDU-Greens Government, after talks for Red-Red-Green ran into the ground, proving once again that the SPD and Greens prefer cuddling up to the CDU more than dealing with teh evil Commies. For those hoping for a red-red-green Government federally in 2021, this perhaps is another reason to be sceptical.

Some of the things agreed to:
-End of Coal power by 2035 (as opposed to the national target of 2038)
-No further quarries
-8500 Police as opposed to the previous 8000
-No further increase in Security Services powers (as happened in other States such as Bravaria)

https://www.rbb24.de/politik/wahl/Landtagswahl/beitraege/koalitionsgespraeche-rot-schwarz-gruen-spd-cdu-gruene-brandenbur.html

The exact details will still have to be settled.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Brandenburg is going to get a SPD-CDU-Greens Government, after talks for Red-Red-Green ran into the ground, proving once again that the SPD and Greens prefer cuddling up to the CDU more than dealing with teh evil Commies. For those hoping for a red-red-green Government federally in 2021, this perhaps is another reason to be sceptical.

Wow! That would mean three states are likely to be governed by a Kenya coalition, and that one in Brandenburg would be the first SPD-led Kenya cabinet.

[Tender Branson]

Campaign poster for Björn Höcke, AfD lead candidate for the Thüringen state election next month:



Jörg Haider (FPÖ) campaign poster 20-25 years ago:

[President Johnson]

New poll for the 2021 state election in Baden-Württemberg; the first one since Minister-President Kretschmann announced his intension to run for a third term. MASSIVE bump for the Greens. Winfired Kretschmann is also leading his CDU challenger, minister for education Susanne Eisenmann, 69-13% in a head-to-head matchup. The SPD's showing is absolutely pathetic. #UnbeatableTitanWinfried!

https://twitter.com/SWRAktuellBW/status/1174624185232084992

[Tender Branson]

Freiburg climate strike today (speakers needed):

https://mobile.twitter.com/F4F_Freiburg/status/1174966189555998720

[President Johnson]

Campaign poster for Björn Höcke, AfD lead candidate for the Thüringen state election next month:



Jörg Haider (FPÖ) campaign poster 20-25 years ago:

His name is Bernd. It's Bernd Höcke!

[Tender Branson]

Campaign poster for Björn Höcke, AfD lead candidate for the Thüringen state election next month:



Jörg Haider (FPÖ) campaign poster 20-25 years ago:

His name is Bernd. It's Bernd Höcke!

?

No, it’s Björn.

[Tender Branson]

Germany’s clown-in-chief strikes again:

[urutzizu]

Campaign poster for Björn Höcke, AfD lead candidate for the Thüringen state election next month:



Jörg Haider (FPÖ) campaign poster 20-25 years ago:

His name is Bernd. It's Bernd Höcke!

?

No, it’s Björn.

No, that is a common misconception among foreigners. It is Bernd. As in Bernd das Brot.

[Tender Branson]

Campaign poster for Björn Höcke, AfD lead candidate for the Thüringen state election next month:



Jörg Haider (FPÖ) campaign poster 20-25 years ago:

His name is Bernd. It's Bernd Höcke!

?

No, it’s Björn.

No, that is a common misconception among foreigners. It is Bernd. As in Bernd das Brot.

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Björn_Höcke

Why would he be called Bernd ?