🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Tender Branson]

Following the October state election, coalition talks in Hessen have come to a conclusion between CDU-Greens and a 200-page coalition contract was signed.

This means CDU-Greens can renew their coalition for another term.

They only have a 69-68 seat majority in Hessen's state parliament.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/cdu-und-gruene-in-hessen-so-will-die-naechste-schwarz-gruene-regierung-arbeiten-a-1245277.html

[Tender Branson]

Here is the current composition of the 16 German state governments:



The numbers indicate how many seats each state has in the 2nd chamer of parliament - the Bundesrat, which represents the states at the federal level.

[Tender Branson]

2019 will have 4 state elections - of which 3 are in Eastern Germany:

* Bremen (a city-state made up of 2 cities) will vote first on May 26th - together with the EU elections. Bremen is a traditional SPD stronghold, but even there the SPD has completely eroded and in polls is now tied with the CDU there and the Greens could also take part in the fight for 1st place.

* Sachsen and Brandenburg will vote on September 1. In Sachsen, the CDU has eroded as well, while the AfD has gained significantly and now has at least a 1/4 of support in the polls. The CDU is still expected to win with around 30% - but the AfD has shown that they can beat the CDU in the federal election, by coming in first. Brandenburg and also Thüringen (which votes on Oct. 27) will see a huge battle for first places - between SPD, CDU and AfD. Brandenburg was an easy SPD-win back in 2014, while Thüringen was an easy CDU win - but both parties collapsed over the past few years.

[Riegel2222]

Most interesting thing to watch out for in the 2019 State elections in eastern Germany is whether the CDU is forced to go into a coalition with Die Linke or the AfD or only just about able to go into a CDU+SPD+Grüne+FDP coalition in either of the states.

Either of these options could lead to a lot of conflict and really shake up the CDU's party base.

[pilskonzept]

Most interesting thing to watch out for in the 2019 State elections in eastern Germany is whether the CDU is forced to go into a coalition with Die Linke or the AfD or only just about able to go into a CDU+SPD+Grüne+FDP coalition in either of the states.

Either of these options could lead to a lot of conflict and really shake up the CDU's party base.

A three- or four-party coalition won't be exactly stable, but CDU will suffer least of all parties involved.

Formal CDU-Left or CDU-AfD coalitions can be safely ruled out. Expect a minority government in this case, followed by early elections.

[Former President tack50]

Here is the current composition of the 16 German state governments:



The numbers indicate how many seats each state has in the 2nd chamer of parliament - the Bundesrat, which represents the states at the federal level.

Well, that seems like a mess, particularly since there's no way a state government can split and it's also unlikely that they'll vote against the national party.

Which means a more accurate description of the Bundesrat now might be:

Government (fully, both CDU and SPD): 5
Government (partially, only CDU): 5
Government (partially, only SPD): 6

Pure opposition (neither CDU nor SPD): 0

How much power does the Bundesrat have? Are they required for all laws or only small stuff?

[Yeahsayyeah]

Well, defections in the interest of the Land or political deals happen. For a majority at the moment one would basically need the cooperation of CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens.

Basically the Bundesrat can veto every law. There are two groups of laws. One, where the veto can be overturned by the absolute majority of the members of the Bundestag. There is a special council of Bundestag and Bundesrat members for official negotians in this case (Vermittlungsausschuss).

And one, where the veto can not be overturned.  The Bundesrat must also confirm international treaties, has some special legislation matters (road traffic rules, for instance) and has to agree to changes of the constitution

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, that seems like a mess, particularly since there's no way a state government can split and it's also unlikely that they'll vote against the national party.

Which means a more accurate description of the Bundesrat now might be:

Government (fully, both CDU and SPD): 5
Government (partially, only CDU): 5
Government (partially, only SPD): 6

Pure opposition (neither CDU nor SPD): 0

How much power does the Bundesrat have? Are they required for all laws or only small stuff?

In practice it effectively means that the Merkel government needs the support of the Greens for passing bills that need Bundesrat approval, since CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens currently hold a 37-seat majority in that chamber. If I'm not mistaken no other combination of parties has a numerical majority right now.

[Tender Branson]

New Bayern poll (look at the SPD, lol):

[Former President tack50]

At some point sooner or later, SPD will fall below the 5% threshold in some regional election

[bigic]

Both CSU and FW are polling at levels similar to their support in the 2018 election. It seems that coalition with CSU currently doesn't seem to damage FW...

[Beezer]

At some point sooner or later, SPD will fall below the 5% threshold in some regional election

Let's hope so. Maybe then they will get the message that being in bed with the CDU while offering Green positions with a slightly more working class rhetoric is not a winning message for the party.

[RedPrometheus]

At some point sooner or later, SPD will fall below the 5% threshold in some regional election

Let's hope so. Maybe then they will get the message that being in bed with the CDU while offering Green positions with a slightly more working class rhetoric is not a winning message for the party.

I have on very good authority that if the SPD loses the Bremen state election in May there will be some kind of reckoning with Nahles being out the door. But it still won't be a sufficient reckoning imo.

[Middle-aged Europe]

At some point sooner or later, SPD will fall below the 5% threshold in some regional election

Let's hope so. Maybe then they will get the message that being in bed with the CDU while offering Green positions with a slightly more working class rhetoric is not a winning message for the party.

I have on very good authority that if the SPD loses the Bremen state election in May there will be some kind of reckoning with Nahles being out the door. But it still won't be a sufficient reckoning imo.

This would lead to the same question that was raised after the losses in the Bavarian and Hessian state elections though: What's the alternative?

I mean, recently there has been some shatter about bringing Sigmar Gabriel back, but wouldn't this simply mean that the party is runnung around in circles? They oust Gabriel because they think Martin Schulz is the real deal. Schulz fumbles the ball with the Bundestag election and the coalition negotiations and is replaced by Nahles. Now they possibly replace Nahles with Gabriel because Nahles lost a couple of state elections...

[pilskonzept]

[...] but wouldn't this simply mean that the party is runnung around in circles? [...]

That's been their modus operandi since 2005. In part, I guess, caused by the fact that new political talent is joining every party but the SPD.

[Oryxslayer]

[...] but wouldn't this simply mean that the party is runnung around in circles? [...]

That's been their modus operandi since 2005. In part, I guess, caused by the fact that new political talent is joining every party but the SPD.

And this isn't something that can change, since the SPD voting pool skews towards the elderly.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Here are the latest polls for this year's state elections:

Bremen (May 26) CDU: 25% (+2.6%) SPD: 24% (-8.8%) Greens: 18% (+2.9%) Left: 13% (+3.5%) AfD: 8% (+2.5%) FDP: 6% (-0.6%) Brandenburg (September 1) CDU: 21% (-2.0%) SPD: 21% (-10.9%) AfD: 19% (+6.8%) Left: 17% (-1.6%) Greens: 10% (+3.8%) FDP: 5% (+3.5%) Saxony (September 1) CDU: 29% (-10.4%) AfD: 25% (+15.3%) Left: 18% (-0.9%) SPD: 10% (-2.4%) Greens: 9% (+3.3%) FDP: 6% (+2.2%) Thuringia (October 27) CDU: 23% (-10.5%) Left: 22% (-6.2%) AfD: 22% (+11.4%) SPD: 12% (-0.4%) Greens: 12% (+6.3%) FDP: 6% (+3.5%)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Markus Plenk, chairman of the AfD parliamentary group in the state parliament of Bavaria, has announced his resignation as group leader and his party switch to the CSU, saying that he's "fed up of being the civil facade of a party which is xenophobic and extremist at its core".

[Middle-aged Europe]

Btw, the candidates' list of DIE PARTEI for the upcoming EP elections consts of the following people. With the exception of the two top spots - both of which are well-known comedians, one of them already a sitting MEP - most of the people were selected due to their surnames.

1. Martin Sonneborn
2. Nico Semsrott
3. Lisa Bombe ("bomb")
4. Bennet Krieg ("war")
5. Kevin Göbbels
6. Tobias Speer
7. Elisabeth S. Bormann
8. Dietrich F. Eichmann
9. Andreas Keitel
10. Fabian M. Heß
11. Frauke Heß-Tchokam ("artist name": Frauke Hess)
12. Dr. Jens Glatzer
13. Marco T. E. Manfredini
14. Samantha Edsen
15. Eggs Gildo
16. Tobias Dittrich
17. Charlotte Brock
18. Katharina V. Drängler
19. Jana Käding
20. Norman Jutrowska

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Here are the latest polls for this year's state elections:

Bremen (May 26) CDU: 25% (+2.6%) SPD: 25% (-7.8%) Greens: 18% (+2.9%) Left: 11% (+1.5%) AfD: 7% (+2.5%) FDP: 6% (+0.4%) Brandenburg (September 1) SPD: 22% (-9.9%) CDU: 20% (-3.0%) AfD: 19% (+6.8%) Left: 16% (-2.6%) Greens: 12% (+5.8%) FDP: 5% (+3.5%) Saxony (September 1) CDU: 28% (-11.4%) AfD: 26% (+16.3%) Left: 16% (-2.9%) SPD: 10% (-2.4%) Greens: 9% (+3.3%) FDP: 6% (+2.2%) Thuringia (October 27) CDU: 27% (-6.5%) Left: 25% (-3.2%) AfD: 19% (+8.4%) SPD: 10% (-2.4%) Greens: 7% (+1.3%) FDP: 6% (+3.5%)

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

ROFL @ SPD

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Horrible news for the SPD in its mega stronghold Bremen, which holds its state election on May 26.
Imagine Washington D.C. elects a Republican mayor... 😆

[pilskonzept]

Well, those numbers are certainly bad for the SPD...but how Jamaica-friendly are the Bremen Greens?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Well, those numbers are certainly bad for the SPD...but how Jamaica-friendly are the Bremen Greens?

They will certainly definitely form a red-green-red coalition.

[mgop]

cdu numbers aren't much better than spd. it's nice to see linke that high in thuringia and berlin. btw saxony, go home, you're nazi.