🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Tender Branson]

Important to note:

Brandenburg allows 16 & 17 year-olds to vote (like Austria), Saxony not.

This will help the Greens there more than in Saxony (Fridays4Future).

[Tender Branson]

ARD Live Stream (works abroad too):

https://live.daserste.de

Will start in ca. 20 minutes, polls close in 50 minutes.

ZDF Live stream does not work outside of Germany.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Important to note:

Brandenburg allows 16 & 17 year-olds to vote (like Austria), Saxony not.

This will help the Greens there more than in Saxony (Fridays4Future).

There are four states that allow 16-year-olds to vote: Brandenburg, Berlin, Hamburg, and Schleswig-Holstein.
Brandenburg was the first state to amend its constitution in respect thereof. Schleswig-Holstein was the first state where such an amendment become effective, in 2017.

Apropos of Schleswig-Holstein, that state and Brandenburg have one thing in common regarding their electoral laws; in the former state, the South Schleswig Voter Federation (SSW), which represents the Danish minority in SH, is exempt from the 5% threshold. The same holds true for parties that represent the Sorbian minority in Brandenburg. However, unlike in SH, no such Sorbian party benefited from that rule as of yet.

Another fun fact about the Saxon electoral law: Four states provide a "minimum mandate clause" (or however you want to translate Grundmandatsklausel into English). In federal elections, a party needs to win three direct mandates in order to circumvent the 5% threshold (as happened in 1994). In Berlin, Brandenburg and Schleswig-Holstein, they need only one constituency. Saxony is the only state where a party has to win two direct seats in order to be exempt from the threshold.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The most important question is not who will become the strongest party.
The crucial question is what parties the state governments will be comprised of.

Any predictions?

[Astatine]

FDP out in both Parliaments.

[Tender Branson]

AfD with a really good result in Saxony (28%) and the SPD in Brandenburg (28% vs. pre-election polls of 17-22%), but still a loss of 5% compared with 2014.

[urutzizu]

Tomorrow will be interesting. I have a feeling that there will be significant tactical voting in both Saxony (for the CDU) and to a lesser extent in  Brandenburg (for the SPD).

The AFD has all reason to be very happy, but yet they have been outshone.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Keep in mind that the AfD is only allowed 30 members to the Saxon Landtag. About 8 seats are likely to be vacant (which can change through the direct seats).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Source: tax-funded state TV news tagesschau.de

[Tender Branson]

[Tender Branson]

Really bad result for the Greens ... (or for the leftwing parties in general):

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Really bad evening for the FDP; nerve-wrecking evening for the Free Voters in Brandenburg.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The high turnout in Leipzig is tapering off:

https://www.leipzig.de/buergerservice-und-verwaltung/wahlen-in-leipzig/landtagswahlen/landtagswahl-2019/wahlbeteiligung/

In the morning it looked like federal election style turnout (75%), now it is going to end up closer to the EU election in May (62%). Probably 64-66%.

That would still be 20-22% higher than during the record-low-turnout 2014 state election.

Not a bad forecast!

[urutzizu]

Look at die Linke: Biggest Losers in Both. Thats where a ton of the AFD votes are coming from.
But the Party leadership keeps insisting on "Open Borders!" and "No deportations!". There is the Bill. Cant wait until Kipping gives us another "Lets wait and analyse.."
There really isnt that much to analyse....

[Tender Branson]

The combined Left has gone from 66% in Brandenburg during 1999-2009 to 47-48% now.

[DL]

I’m guessing that Sachsen ends up with a CDU-SPD-Green coalition. What is more likely in Brandenburg? SPD-CDU-Green or Red-Red-Green?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I’m guessing that Sachsen ends up with a CDU-SPD-Green coalition. What is more likely in Brandenburg? SPD-CDU-Green or Red-Red-Green?

It really depends on the direct seats that the AfD gain.
This is one of the very few elections where the first vote is decisively crucial.

[Beezer]

GroKo survives thanks to the incredibly low expectations going into these elections.

[DL]

Would the SPD in Brandenburg prefer a Red-Black-Green coalition or a Red-Red-Green coalition assuming both are mathematically possible?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Would the SPD in Brandenburg prefer a Red-Black-Green coalition or a Red-Red-Green coalition assuming both are mathematically possible?

Definitely red-red-green or red-green-red. (hard to tell which party will emerge stronger).

A black-red-green coalition ("Kenya" or "Afghanistan") is likely to govern Saxony, just like in Saxony Anhalt.

[Tender Branson]

With 52% of the precincts counted in Brandenburg, SPD and AfD are neck-and-neck at 27% each:

https://www.wahlergebnisse.brandenburg.de/wahlen/LT2019/auszahlungsstand.html

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

223,000 former non-voters and 84,000 former CDU voters have turned to the AfD in Saxony.

[Astatine]

With 30 % of votes counted in Barnim II, Peter Vida (BVB/FW) is currently at 24.3 %, ahead of Britta Stark (21.3 %). Looks like BVB/FW is going to reenter Parliament even if they fail to get 5 %.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Aw, Listening to Petra Köpping, Saxon Integration Minister and contender for the SPD chair, I just have to notice: I HATE the Saxon accent. It must sound to German ears like a Deep Southern white accent does to American ears. 😖

[Tender Branson]

Aw, Listening to Petra Köpping, Saxon Integration Minister and contender for the SPD chair, I just have to notice: I HATE the Saxon accent. It must sound to German ears like a Deep Southern white accent does to American ears. 😖

I absolutely love the Saxon dialect.