🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[#UnbanTender]

Turnout as of 2 p.m. (with postals included)

Saxony
2024: 60.0% (+8.0)
2019: 52.0%

Dresden
2024: 65.4% (+3.5)
2019: 61.9%

Leipzig
2024: 62.5% (+13.2)
2019: 49.3%

[Compuzled_One]

I don't know much about German politics, but would the CDU actually be willing to tolerate a majority left coalition in Thuringia, since (based on polling) the only coalition with them at the top is likely to be a CDU-BSW-SPD coalition (unless the SPD gets locked out)?

Also, is there a significant chance the left-wing overperforms and there's a weird left coalition, or is that unlikely?

[Oryxslayer]

Good, the thread got unlocked. Why did that happen? Accidently? 

[President Johnson]

Very last minute prediction:

Thurginia
AfD: 29.9%
CDU: 24.0%
Linke: 15.6%
BSW: 14.5%
SPD: 6.1%
---
Greens: 4.4%
FDP: 3.1%


Saxony
CDU: 34.0%
AfD: 30.2%
BSW: 12.8%
SPD: 5.0%
---
Greens: 4.8%

FDP among "others"

[Mike88]

15 minutes until polls close:

Live feeds:

[Oryxslayer]

I don't know much about German politics, but would the CDU actually be willing to tolerate a majority left coalition in Thuringia, since (based on polling) the only coalition with them at the top is likely to be a CDU-BSW-SPD coalition (unless the SPD gets locked out)?

Also, is there a significant chance the left-wing overperforms and there's a weird left coalition, or is that unlikely?

TL:DR Linke have been leading government in Thuringia mostly cause of the popularity of their leader Bodo Ramelow. In 2019 their size combined with the rising AfD made government formation difficult and confusing, but in the end the Union found themselves letting Linke return to power in a peculiar relationship. So an odd anti-AfD government is not out of the question, perhaps even including the incumbents, but the Union would not prefer it.

[Oryxslayer]

15 minutes until polls close:

Live feeds:

SNIP

Govt Sites:

https://www.wahlen.sachsen.de/landtagswahl-2024-wahlergebnisse.php

https://wahlen.thueringen.de/landtagswahlen/lw_wahlergebnisse.asp

[President Johnson]

I don't know much about German politics, but would the CDU actually be willing to tolerate a majority left coalition in Thuringia, since (based on polling) the only coalition with them at the top is likely to be a CDU-BSW-SPD coalition (unless the SPD gets locked out)?

Also, is there a significant chance the left-wing overperforms and there's a weird left coalition, or is that unlikely?

No, CDU wouldn't and hasn't in the previous term. They passed budgets and a few other laws with the Ramelow (Like/SPD/Greens) government, but they didn't formally tolerate the government and even passed other laws with AfD and FDP. Interestingly though, Ramelow's latest cabinet was the first minority government of a German state that lasted for an entire term.

I honestly think CDU will overperform in both states due to some SPD/Green voters swichting to make sure AfD isn't the strongest party or CDU at least comes close.

[Compuzled_One]

TL:DR Linke have been leading government in Thuringia mostly cause of the popularity of their leader Bodo Ramelow. In 2019 their size combined with the rising AfD made government formation difficult and confusing, but in the end the Union found themselves letting Linke return to power in a peculiar relationship. So an odd anti-AfD government is not out of the question, perhaps even including the incumbents, but the Union would not prefer it.

No, CDU wouldn't and hasn't in the previous term. They passed budgets and a few other laws with the Ramelow (Like/SPD/Greens) government, but they didn't formally tolerate the government and even passed other laws with AfD and FDP. Interestingly though, Ramelow's latest cabinet was the first minority government of a German state that lasted for an entire term.

I honestly think CDU will overperform in both states due to some SPD/Green voters swichting to make sure AfD isn't the strongest party or CDU at least comes close.

Gotcha, thanks. Guess the most likely situation is CDU minority government, bizarro center left CDU led coalition, or centrist, slightly CDU dominated coalition in Thuringia based on what you said.

[Mike88]

AfD wins Thurginia. Too close to call in Saxony.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Saxony:

CDU 32% - 44 seats
AfD 31.5% - 43 seats
Linke 4.5% - 0
Green 5% - 7 seats
SPD 7.5% - 10 seats
FDP 1% - 0 seats
BSW 11.5% - 16 seats
Other 7% - 0 seats

Thüringen:

Linke 11.5% - 11 seats
AfD 33.5% - 33 seats
CDU 24.5 - 24 seats
SPD 6.5 - 6 seats
Green 4 - 0 seats
FDP 1 - 0 seats
BSW 14.5 - 14 seats
Other 4.5 - 0 seats

[President Johnson]

Prognosis by ARD:

Thurgina:






Saxony:

[Duke of York]

AfD wins Thurginia. Too close to call in Saxony.

absolutely terrifying people voted to put literal Nazi's into power. Disgraceful people for Nazi's, The people of Thuringia should be ashamed.

[#UnbanTender]

Lol FDP. Back to irrelevance you weirdos.

[DL]

I assume this means Saxony gets a CDU-SPD-Green coalition and who knows what government can be formed in Thuringia where AfD and BSW have a majority between them but would never cooperate

[President Johnson]

AfD wins Thurginia. Too close to call in Saxony.

This is an absolute disgrace and an embarrassment for Germany on the world stage.

[President Johnson]

I assume this means Saxony gets a CDU-SPD-Green coalition and who knows what government can be formed in Thuringia where AfD and BSW have a majority between them but would never cooperate

Michael Kretschner said he doesn't want to continue with the Greens, so this will be interesting.

[Oryxslayer]

AfD wins Thurginia. Too close to call in Saxony.

absolutely terrifying people voted to put literal Nazi's into power.

And now we wait and see if Sahra Wagenknecht of Katja Wolf are willing to actually let that happen.

Saxony, no matter what happens at the top, is going to be a continuation of the previous coalition it seems. Nothing else works mathematically unless somehow BSW is better.

[#UnbanTender]

AfD wins Thurginia. Too close to call in Saxony.

absolutely terrifying people voted to put literal Nazi's into power.

And now we wait and see if Sahra Wagenknecht of Katja Wolf are willing to actually let that happen.

Saxony, no matter what happens at the top, is going to be a continuation of the previous coalition it seems. Nothing else works mathematically unless somehow BSW is better.

Linke can still enter the Saxon Landtag if they win 2 district seats. Unlikely but still plausible.

[Death of a Salesman]

AfD wins Thurginia. Too close to call in Saxony.

absolutely terrifying people voted to put literal Nazi's into power.

And now we wait and see if Sahra Wagenknecht of Katja Wolf are willing to actually let that happen.

Saxony, no matter what happens at the top, is going to be a continuation of the previous coalition it seems. Nothing else works mathematically unless somehow BSW is better.

The CDU Minister-President of Saxony wants to leave the coalition with the Greens, so probably CDU-BSW-SPD in both states.

[windjammer]

I guess in Thüringen it will be a minority CDU-SPD government right?

[President Johnson]

An exit poll found that only 17% consider Olaf Scholz a good chancellor and 74% believe he's doesn't have the capacity to be a leader. As I said before, he should pull a Biden and not only not run, but resign and be replaced by Defense Minister Boris Pistrorius who sits at 59% approval rating. His chances are even much lower than Biden's ever where.

[Compuzled_One]

An exit poll found that only 17% consider Olaf Scholz a good chancellor and 74% believe he's doesn't have the capacity to be a leader. As I said before, he should pull a Biden and not only not run, but resign and be replaced by Defense Minister Boris Pistrorius who sits at 59% approval rating. His chances are even much lower than Biden's ever where.

I guess he assumes he can pull an upset again thanks to Merz and the AfD being his main opposition (despite being a known quantity now and his crapshow of a coalition).

[Mike88]

AfD wins Thurginia. Too close to call in Saxony.

This is an absolute disgrace and an embarrassment for Germany on the world stage.

Brandenburg, a few weeks from now, also looks trending for AfD. It's eye boogling the right-wing trend in East Germany and the clear political split between East and West.

[President Johnson]

An exit poll found that only 17% consider Olaf Scholz a good chancellor and 74% believe he's doesn't have the capacity to be a leader. As I said before, he should pull a Biden and not only not run, but resign and be replaced by Defense Minister Boris Pistrorius who sits at 59% approval rating. His chances are even much lower than Biden's ever where.

I guess he assumes he can pull an upset again thanks to Merz and the AfD being his main opposition (despite being a known quantity now and his crapshow of a coalition).

Definitely, but I have my doubts that this is going to work. It seems delusional. Especially since we have a replacement candidate that is broadly popular.