🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[You are responsible]

Since the so-called Islamic State claimed the Solingen knife attack, this is probably a jackpot for the AfD's campaign in the closing days towards the state elections. News just report that a refugee has been detained by the police.

Given the timing this might have been the entire point of the Islamic State's attack.

You might hope some voters are smart enough to realise this....

Doubt that.

Best case scenario is - given the aforementioned polarization the AfD causes - that the AfD has already reached their ceiling and simply can't win any more votes.

[President Johnson]

Since the so-called Islamic State claimed the Solingen knife attack, this is probably a jackpot for the AfD's campaign in the closing days towards the state elections. News just report that a refugee has been detained by the police.

Given the timing this might have been the entire point of the Islamic State's attack.

You might hope some voters are smart enough to realise this....

Doubt that.

Best case scenario is - given the aforementioned polarization the AfD causes - that the AfD has already reached their ceiling and simply can't win any more votes.

I'm not sure. The "potential analysis" by various pollsters shows some room for them to gain. Even at the federal level, the number of respondents saying they wouldn't vote for AfD under any circumstances has declined, even though it's still over 60% and even over 50% in most Eastern states (SPD and CDU usually have the lowest number here, with just 20-25% giving them a hard no).

When the news of this attack initially broke, I was actually hoping that, if something this bad had to happen, it would either just be a mentally sick German or a right-wing extremist.

[You are responsible]

When the news of this attack initially broke, I was actually hoping that, if something this bad had to happen, it would either just be a mentally sick German or a right-wing extremist.

I guess that tells you a lot about our society.

[CumbrianLefty]

That is how it goes, though - the fallout from Trump's attempted assassination could have been much worse had the perpetrator been a far leftist and/or brown person (or maybe worst of all, a Muslim)

[President Johnson]

That is how it goes, though - the fallout from Trump's attempted assassination could have been much worse had the perpetrator been a far leftist and/or brown person (or maybe worst of all, a Muslim)

Unfortunately yes. I remember several Republicans being mad over the Steve Scalise shooter being a Bernie supporter back in 2017. Even though Bernie, like all rank and file Democrats, strogly dennouncing violence.

[You are responsible]

Today is the big day.

Saxony and Thuringia vote.

Meanwhile the Thuringian police investigates an AfD rally for the Hitler salutes that were shown there:
https://twitter.com/Polizei_Thuer/status/1829940087267721383

The Thuringian AfD has also banned all journalists from attending their election party tonight after they had first banned only certain media outlets (which apparently included not only the left-wing taz, but also the right-wing but maybe too sensationalist BILD) but a court order forced them not to discriminate against anyone.

Brandenburg votes in three weeks. The Brandenburgian AfD has suggested to ban all refugees, which apparently would include even Ukrainian ones, from attending all public events in the entire state as a measure against recent knife attacks.

Meanwhile, a woman has stabbed six people - three of them in a life-threatening manner - on a bus in the city of Siegen. Police in Siegen was quick to point out that the perpetrator was a German citizen with no migrant background:
https://twitter.com/polizei_nrw_si/status/1829780268808388695

Of course it can't be ruled out that mentally unbalanced Germans will do copycats of acts of violence originally perpetrated by Muslims (who may or may not have been mentally unbalanced themselves).

So it goes.

[#UnbanTender]

Turnout in Leipzig at noon is up 12% compared to 2019 and is even higher than a Bundestag election.

[You are responsible]

Turnout in Leipzig at noon is up 12% compared to 2019 and is even higher than a Bundestag election.

Given it is Leipzig those are probably Green or Left voters coming out in droves.

Saxony has a two-mandate clause similar to the three-mandate clause at the federal level: If a party manages to win two direct districts it is excempted from the 5% threshold in the overall seat distribution. Greens and/or Left could win direct seats in Leipzig (and possibly Dresden?), as they have done in the past. That is if Greens and Left don't take the votes away from each other.

And Leipzig is not Saxony though.

[afleitch]

It's chilling how the AfD is completely 'mask off' now and it's potentially propelling them into power.

[You are responsible]

It's chilling how the AfD is completely 'mask off' now and it's potentially propelling them into power.

Some have pointed out the irony that today is also the 85th anniversary of the start of the Second World War.

[You are responsible]

Regarding that turnout question...


Leipzig
2019: 41%
2024: 53%

Chemnitz
2019: 32%
2024: 33%


That seems to confirm the theory that there will be a spot of green in a sea of blue.

[JimJamUK]

It's chilling how the AfD is completely 'mask off' now and it's potentially propelling them into power.

Is it? The most ‘mask off’ moment happened at the start of this year and tanked their vote with limited recovery since.

[CumbrianLefty]

These are AfD's two strongest states, no?

If they can't win here they likely can't win anywhere.

[You are responsible]

These are AfD's two strongest states, no?

If they can't win here they likely can't win anywhere.

Barring a France-like upset it is pretty much inevitable that the AfD is at least going to win in Thuringia today. The CDU-BSW cordon sanitaire seems to be strong enough though to block them from power.

Thuringia is traditiobally one of the AfD's strongest states. At the same time it is also the state where the AfD is the most full-blown Nazi. Make of it what you will.

Given the Leipzig numbers I'd say Saxony tilts towards a win for the CDU.

[jaichind]

It's chilling how the AfD is completely 'mask off' now and it's potentially propelling them into power.

Is it? The most ‘mask off’ moment happened at the start of this year and tanked their vote with limited recovery since.

I always thought the AfD polling decline was due to the surge of BSW where BSW was able to peal off some anti-system support from AfD.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, the "anti-system" element that isn't so fond of actual Nazis especially.

[You are responsible]

It's chilling how the AfD is completely 'mask off' now and it's potentially propelling them into power.

Is it? The most ‘mask off’ moment happened at the start of this year and tanked their vote with limited recovery since.

I always thought the AfD polling decline was due to the surge of BSW where BSW was able to peal off some anti-system support from AfD.

Now try to combine these two sentences into a single one:

"The most ‘mask off’ moment happened at the start of this year and tanked their vote with limited recovery since."

"I always thought the AfD polling decline was due to the surge of BSW where BSW was able to peal off some anti-system support from AfD."

[jaichind]

These are AfD's two strongest states, no?

If they can't win here they likely can't win anywhere.

Barring a France-like upset it is pretty much inevitable that the AfD is at least going to win in Thuringia today. The CDU-BSW cordon sanitaire seems to be strong enough though to block them from power.

 

In the unlikely but still possible event where BSW wins more seats than CDU in Thuringia then CDU would accept a BSW  Minister-President?

[You are responsible]

These are AfD's two strongest states, no?

If they can't win here they likely can't win anywhere.

Barring a France-like upset it is pretty much inevitable that the AfD is at least going to win in Thuringia today. The CDU-BSW cordon sanitaire seems to be strong enough though to block them from power.

 

In the unlikely but still possible event where BSW wins more seats than CDU in Thuringia then CDU would accept a BSW  Minister-President?

Maybe.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

What's the worst-case scenario for AfD in Thuringia?

[You are responsible]

Police had to settle an altercaration in the Thuringian City of Gera.

An AfD voter entered the polling station wearing an AfD t-shirt. A polling station worker asked him to remove the shirt since the law forbids political advertisement in and around polling stations. He complied with the request after the cops were called. Him issuing threats also got him a reprimand though.

[You are responsible]

What's the worst-case scenario for AfD in Thuringia?

Depends on how realistic that worst-case is supposed to be. Putin deciding to launch nukes tomorrow would also be a worst-case, albeit a fairly far-fetched one.

I'd say no clear majorities lead to an unstable minority government which at one point may depend on AfD votes to get something done. Alternatively, the need for an immediate snap election strengthens the AfD further.

[Oryxslayer]

Well, today's the day.

All told, I don't think it would be a surprise whatsoever if the AfD undershoots expectations. Negative polarization and more importantly fear of the possibility - the best turnout motivator - drive the 50-60% who will never vote for them (according to state polls) to make their voices known. Especially in light of last week's events, since one "knows" (assumes) that the AfD voters are not going to be sitting around. We have seen this before in Saxony-Anhalt, and in a number of eastern local elections.

Though, I also would not be too surprised if the AfD do well. They have many of the same factors working for them through the same polarization.

[Oryxslayer]

Turnout in Leipzig at noon is up 12% compared to 2019 and is even higher than a Bundestag election.
SNIP

Given it is Leipzig those are probably Green or Left voters coming out in droves.

Saxony has a two-mandate clause similar to the three-mandate clause at the federal level: If a party manages to win two direct districts it is excempted from the 5% threshold in the overall seat distribution. Greens and/or Left could win direct seats in Leipzig (and possibly Dresden?), as they have done in the past. That is if Greens and Left don't take the votes away from each other.

And Leipzig is not Saxony though.

The real thing to note of course is not individual party votes, but that Leipzig is historically the worst part of the state for the AfD. However, I would not be surprised if turnout looks like this in many places regardless of affiliation. Fear, polarization, and 'othering' of your political rivals - which arguably are things that all voters here can perceive to some extent - are big motivators for traditional political action like voting.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

Well, today's the day.

All told, I don't think it would be a surprise whatsoever if the AfD undershoots expectations. Negative polarization and more importantly fear of the possibility - the best turnout motivator - drive the 50-60% who will never vote for them (according to state polls) to make their voices known. Especially in light of last week's events, since one "knows" (assumes) that the AfD voters are not going to be sitting around. We have seen this before in Saxony-Anhalt, and in a number of eastern local elections.

Though, I also would not be too surprised if the AfD do well. They have many of the same factors working for them through the same polarization.

I think there is a significant and understated possibility of them decently underperforming, if i had to be honest. I'm getting a lot of France 2024 vibes from the campaign, polling, and media coverage.