🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[You are responsible]

You are saying that in the GDR days a lot of the population was genuinely pro-Russia, as opposed to this simply being imposed by the Communist leadership (as many would have presumed)?

Well, one could say that the imposition by the Communist leadership happened to work there, since for the reasons named by me the population tended to be more receptive for it.

[President Johnson]

New Saxony ARD poll:

CDU: 31% (+2)
AfD: 30% (+/-0)
BSW: 14% (-1)
SPD: 7% (+/-0)
Greens: 6% (-1)
----
Linke: 4% (+1)
Others: 8% (-1) (hilarious the FDP is among "others")

Michael Kretschmer (CDU, inc.) leads AfD challenger Jörg Urban 58-20% as preferred Minister-President.

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend/sachsen-vorwahlumfrage-102.html

[Oryxslayer]

New Saxony ARD poll:

CDU: 31% (+2)
AfD: 30% (+/-0)
BSW: 14% (-1)
SPD: 7% (+/-0)
Greens: 6% (-1)
----
Linke: 4% (+1)
Others: 8% (-1) (hilarious the FDP is among "others")

Michael Kretschmer (CDU, inc.) leads AfD challenger Jörg Urban 58-20% as preferred Minister-President.

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend/sachsen-vorwahlumfrage-102.html

Any reason why a third of AfD people don't like their local leader? Yes, the AfD is a nationally focused party, but...

[President Johnson]

New Saxony ARD poll:

CDU: 31% (+2)
AfD: 30% (+/-0)
BSW: 14% (-1)
SPD: 7% (+/-0)
Greens: 6% (-1)
----
Linke: 4% (+1)
Others: 8% (-1) (hilarious the FDP is among "others")

Michael Kretschmer (CDU, inc.) leads AfD challenger Jörg Urban 58-20% as preferred Minister-President.

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend/sachsen-vorwahlumfrage-102.html

Any reason why a third of AfD people don't like their local leader? Yes, the AfD is a nationally focused party, but...

Probably just low name recogination or just find him too dull.

[President Johnson]

Also new Thurigina poll:

AfD: 30% (+2)
CDU: 23% (+/-0)
BSW: 17% (-4)
Linke: 13% (+2)
SPD: 7% (+/-0)
----
Greens: 3% (-1)
Others: 7% (-1) (hilarious the FDP is among "others")

Really brutal numbers for the Greens in particular. And, honestly, beyond lost AfD is at 30% with their leader Höcke. The guy is a literal fascist.

Also hilarious is that 57% are either somewhat or strongly dissatisfied with the state government (4% strongly and 35% somewhat satisfied), while 50% say Bodo Ramelow is a good chief executive. Only 37% say otherwise. Are people really that stupid?

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend/thueringen-vorwahlumfrage-102.html

[Duke of York]

Also new Thurigina poll:

AfD: 30% (+2)
CDU: 23% (+/-0)
BSW: 17% (-4)
Linke: 13% (+2)
SPD: 7% (+/-0)
----
Greens: 3% (-1)
Others: 7% (-1) (hilarious the FDP is among "others")

Really brutal numbers for the Greens in particular. And, honestly, beyond lost AfD is at 30% with their leader Höcke. The guy is a literal fascist.

Also hilarious is that 57% are either somewhat or strongly dissatisfied with the state government (4% strongly and 35% somewhat satisfied), while 50% say Bodo Ramelow is a good chief executive. Only 37% say otherwise. Are people really that stupid?

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend/thueringen-vorwahlumfrage-102.html

to see AFD leading is beyond terrifying

[You are responsible]

For what it's worth, Höcke was recently prevented by 2,000 protestors from attending a campaign event in Thuringia's second-largest city of Jena.

That's certainly a big city phenomenon

On the other side of the aisle the director of the Buchenwald concentration camp memorial (also in Thuringia)  received death threats after speaking out against the AfD.

One "pragmatic" argument for keeping the AfD from power is that it prevents a possible civil war-like situation.

[palandio]

You are saying that in the GDR days a lot of the population was genuinely pro-Russia, as opposed to this simply being imposed by the Communist leadership (as many would have presumed)?

Well, one could say that the imposition by the Communist leadership happened to work there, since for the reasons named by me the population tended to be more receptive for it.

Maybe this is just my pet theory, but I think that there is something like a deeply cynical "post-communist state of mind" in a relevant part of all societies that experienced communism and its fall.
And it's particularly noticeable among groups that suffered under Communism, struggled to preserve their identity. After the fall of communism the stabilizing factor of suppression fell away, and instead of safety they found disappointment, incomprehension of their experience and a new breaking apart of their social environment. It exists in Poland and the Baltic countries, too. But because of the 39/40 Soviet invasion (and earlier the Russian Empire) anti-Russian sentiment is deeply rooted in the national identity.

[rob in cal]

Have AFD and BSW state leaders said very much about the idea of a AFD BSW coalition in either Thuringia or Saxony? Seems possible that they will have a majority in one or both, depending on how the smaller parties (who lead the Bundesregierung of course) do in terms of thresholds.

[Yeahsayyeah]

It would be at least a big gamble for them and I don't think anyone has appetite for that, even Sahra Wagenknecht herself who tries to blur that line rhethorically for whatever reason (cynism of power?)

1. There is the precedent of what happened 1933 and "smart people" thought they could control and contain the fascists by helping them into power.

2. A main selling point for BSW is still: "Vote for us so you can get anti-establishment populism without fascism!"

3. BSW still comes from the left tradition (although in a more statist and more socially conservative way) and most members ARE former members of the Left Party. And it shows when societal issues can be framed in a traditionalist left way, see abortion access as an example.

[You are responsible]

Have AFD and BSW state leaders said very much about the idea of a AFD BSW coalition in either Thuringia or Saxony? Seems possible that they will have a majority in one or both, depending on how the smaller parties (who lead the Bundesregierung of course) do in terms of thresholds.

First of all, Sahra Wagenknecht herself has said that she plans to get personally involved in the government formation processes in these states, possibly setting off a power struggle between the federal and state levels of that party. Thuringian BSW state leader Katja Wolf in particular is seen as a major Wagenknecht rival (who is said to dream about becoming minister-president herself if the BSW overtakes the CDU and manages to get the CDU's support somehow).

The CDU, who is currently prepping itself for coalition talks with the BSW, is not amused about a possible Wagenknecht involvement and told her to stay the f**k out of this.

Meanwhile, the SPD is sending mixed messages towards the BSW, I heard.

This is the current state of the pre-election government formation maneuvering.

[Oryxslayer]

Have AFD and BSW state leaders said very much about the idea of a AFD BSW coalition in either Thuringia or Saxony? Seems possible that they will have a majority in one or both, depending on how the smaller parties (who lead the Bundesregierung of course) do in terms of thresholds.

I mean that is the million Euro question, and one that could very well kill BSW's viability.

At the national level, you could maybe envision the two thinking about it if there was any chance at it mattering (but because it doesn't, BSW should strategically always reject it), because foreign policy is a uniting principle. There have been far stranger bedfellows on the continent brought together because the parties align on what they see as the big issues, even if they fundamentally disagree on others.

The states though have 0 foreign policy influence, and only limited say when it comes to immigrants. However, the decision in Saxony and Thuringia (and maybe Brandenburg) is almost certainly going to be between supporting the Union or supporting the AfD, even in the most limited of capacities allowed by the system. That's a mutually bad option for Wagenknecht nationally, and will probably anger different constituencies they are trying to sway to differing degrees. Which is of course why she wants to be at the table doing the negotiations, to try and prevent things from going awry.

[You are responsible]

New Saxony/Thuringia polls from ZDF-Politbarometer/Forschungsgruppe Wahlen



Saxony

CDU 33%
AfD 30%
BSW 11%
SPD 7%
Greens 6%
Left 4%

Majority for CDU-SPD-Greens  (if SPD and Greens make it past 5%, while the Left is eliminated).


Which party should lead the state government?
CDU 64%
AfD 15%
BSW 9%
Don't know 12%

A participation of the AfD in the state government would be..
Good 29%
Bad 62%
No opinion 7%

A participation of the BSW in the state government would be..
Good 35%
Bad 38%
No opinion 22%



Thuringia

AfD 30%
CDU 23%
BSW 17%
Left 14%
SPD 6%
Greens 4%

Majority for CDU-BSW-SPD (technically also AfD-BSW even though for the reasons also already discussed I can't believe that someone like Katja Wolf would elect someone like Björn Höcke minister-president).


Which party should lead the state government?
CDU 37%
Left 21%
AfD 19%
BSW 12%
Don't know 11%

A participation of the AfD in the state government would be..
Good 32%
Bad 59%
No opinion 6%

A participation of the BSW in the state government would be..
Good 48%
Bad 25%
No opinion 20%



Like I said, that's quite a political polarization you've got here when you have the AfD as the prospective largest party in Thuringia, leading the second-largest party by seven points, while at the same time a clear majority of the electorate doesn't want them in power, either preferring CDU or the Left to lead the state government.

[You are responsible]

You know why there won't be a AfD-BSW coalition?


The lead candidate of the BSW in Thuringia is Katja Wolf who, until recently, used to be the mayor of Eisenach (most of that time for the Left Party). During her tenure as mayor she regularly refused to shake the hands of the newly inaugurated city council members from NPD or AfD. The last time this happened was in June of this year, following the local elections.

The AfD complained that Wolf had refused to "recognize" a quarter of Eisenach's electorate. Wolf replied that she had "properly" conducted the inauguration.

[CumbrianLefty]

Whilst some can maybe be a bit too alarmist about the AfD at times IMO, it is still rather unnerving to see them leading the polls in a state where their leader is almost literally *an actual Nazi*.

[You are responsible]

Whilst some can maybe be a bit too alarmist about the AfD at times IMO, it is still rather unnerving to see them leading the polls in a state where their leader is almost literally *an actual Nazi*.

The more extreme the AfD becomes the more successful it usually is.

This isn't the 4% Bernd Lucke FDP-on-steroids who wants the D-Mark back anymore.

[President Johnson]

Whilst some can maybe be a bit too alarmist about the AfD at times IMO, it is still rather unnerving to see them leading the polls in a state where their leader is almost literally *an actual Nazi*.

The more extreme the AfD becomes the more successful it usually is.

This isn't the 4% Bernd Lucke FDP-on-steroids who wants the D-Mark back anymore.

Sometimes I really wish we could go back to the summer of 2015 and beg Merkel to take a different stance in what was to come. In that summer, AfD was close to be finished after this brutal convention showdown between Petry and Lucke (irnoically, it's now two party leaders later and all of them were driven out for not being extreme enough). It was only the refugee crisis in September that brought fresh air into their dying party which was polling under 5%.

What generally most bothers me is the ignorance to support Höcke and alike. To any normal person or even protest voters, it should be a red flag when an entire state party is surveillanced for being "verified right-wing extremists" by the bureau of constitutional protection.

[CumbrianLefty]

You know why there won't be a AfD-BSW coalition?


The lead candidate of the BSW in Thuringia is Katja Wolf who, until recently, used to be the mayor of Eisenach (most of that time for the Left Party). During her tenure as mayor she regularly refused to shake the hands of the newly inaugurated city council members from NPD or AfD. The last time this happened was in June of this year, following the local elections.

The AfD complained that Wolf had refused to "recognize" a quarter of Eisenach's electorate. Wolf replied that she had "properly" conducted the inauguration.

Good for her

[President Johnson]

Since the so-called Islamic State claimed the Solingen knife attack, this is probably a jackpot for the AfD's campaign in the closing days towards the state elections. News just report that a refugee has been detained by the police.

[jaichind]

You know why there won't be a AfD-BSW coalition?


The lead candidate of the BSW in Thuringia is Katja Wolf who, until recently, used to be the mayor of Eisenach (most of that time for the Left Party). During her tenure as mayor she regularly refused to shake the hands of the newly inaugurated city council members from NPD or AfD. The last time this happened was in June of this year, following the local elections.

The AfD complained that Wolf had refused to "recognize" a quarter of Eisenach's electorate. Wolf replied that she had "properly" conducted the inauguration.

But if BSW joins with CDP would it not risk losing a good part of its base to AfD?

[Oryxslayer]

You know why there won't be a AfD-BSW coalition?


The lead candidate of the BSW in Thuringia is Katja Wolf who, until recently, used to be the mayor of Eisenach (most of that time for the Left Party). During her tenure as mayor she regularly refused to shake the hands of the newly inaugurated city council members from NPD or AfD. The last time this happened was in June of this year, following the local elections.

The AfD complained that Wolf had refused to "recognize" a quarter of Eisenach's electorate. Wolf replied that she had "properly" conducted the inauguration.

But if BSW joins with CDP would it not risk losing a good part of its base to AfD?

That's what I was trying to get at above: they anger/drive away sections of their current electorate if they choose AfD or if they choose Union, albeit different parts.

You can look at the polling above and see their voters don't want to let in the AfD. Especially in where it will must likely matter, in Thuringia. At the same time their national positioning is undermined by turning towards the Union. It's a bad situation if they want any long-term viability.

The situation may call for putting Ramelow back into office even though that would be a weird occurrence for the German system, cause it would just be a de facto continuance of the current awkward coalition.

[windjammer]

You know why there won't be a AfD-BSW coalition?


The lead candidate of the BSW in Thuringia is Katja Wolf who, until recently, used to be the mayor of Eisenach (most of that time for the Left Party). During her tenure as mayor she regularly refused to shake the hands of the newly inaugurated city council members from NPD or AfD. The last time this happened was in June of this year, following the local elections.

The AfD complained that Wolf had refused to "recognize" a quarter of Eisenach's electorate. Wolf replied that she had "properly" conducted the inauguration.

But if BSW joins with CDP would it not risk losing a good part of its base to AfD?

That's what I was trying to get at above: they anger/drive away sections of their current electorate if they choose AfD or if they choose Union, albeit different parts.

You can look at the polling above and see their voters don't want to let in the AfD. Especially in where it will must likely matter, in Thuringia. At the same time their national positioning is undermined by turning towards the Union. It's a bad situation if they want any long-term viability.

The situation may call for putting Ramelow back into office even though that would be a weird occurrence for the German system, cause it would just be a de facto continuance of the current awkward coalition.

Why do they have to choose if they end UP losing voters ?

The third round only needs a plurality right ? So they Can either abstain or vote for themselves and let either CSU or Afd win

[You are responsible]

Since the so-called Islamic State claimed the Solingen knife attack, this is probably a jackpot for the AfD's campaign in the closing days towards the state elections. News just report that a refugee has been detained by the police.

Given the timing this might have been the entire point of the Islamic State's attack.

[You are responsible]

Did I mention yet that the election platform of the Thuringian AfD for this year's state election is prefaced by a poem by a little-known, obscure poet from the first half of the 20th century who is regarded an antisemite and an admirer of Hitler and who wrote articles for the official Nazi newspaper "Völkischer Beobachter" during the mid-30?

"Die Welt" reported on it last month:
https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article252566026/Landtagswahl-Thueringer-AfD-wirbt-im-Wahlprogramm-mit-Nationalsozialist.html

[CumbrianLefty]

Since the so-called Islamic State claimed the Solingen knife attack, this is probably a jackpot for the AfD's campaign in the closing days towards the state elections. News just report that a refugee has been detained by the police.

Given the timing this might have been the entire point of the Islamic State's attack.

You might hope some voters are smart enough to realise this....