🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Would it be completely out of the question for the AfD to give passive support to the FDP and CDU or would even trying that cause too much of a crisis? Is the CDU putting any feelers out for potential agreements on the "broader right"?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Would it be completely out of the question for the AfD to give passive support to the FDP and CDU or would even trying that cause too much of a crisis? Is the CDU putting any feelers out for potential agreements on the "broader right"?

The CDU and FDP would refuse to do that. They know that they would become a pawn in the hands of the AFD. Furthermore, it would be something of a novelty for a government to be tolerated by such a huge party.

[pilskonzept]

Would it be completely out of the question for the AfD to give passive support to the FDP and CDU or would even trying that cause too much of a crisis?

They would try to avoid (and yes, publicly refuse) that, but in the end, the vote is secret. However, the AfD is too large now, and too different in ideology, to give support to a CDU/FDP government without concessions from them.

Is the CDU putting any feelers out for potential agreements on the "broader right"?

Some state-level CDUers are. The federal party isn't.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Brandenburg Wahl-o-mat is out: https://www.wahl-o-mat.de/brandenburg2019/


My results: ÖDP first (77.3%). Greens, Left Party and Animal Protection Party all tied for second place (73.9%).

Last place: AfD (28.4%), followed by FDP (39.8%).

Weird result, but I often get weird results in state election polls which don't fully correspond to the federal and European election Wahl-o-mats.


The Wahl-o-Mat for the Saxony state election will follow on the coming Monday.

[DavidB.]

Glad they finally built in a feature with which you can include all parties in your result. Hated the maximum 8 parties thing.

AfD 70.8%
FW 56.3%
FDP 56.3%
CDU 56.3%
SPD 46.9%
ÖDP 43.8%
Piraten 41.7%
Linke 37.5%
Grüne 32.3%
Tierschutz 32.3%
V-Partei 27.1%

Love that even the SPD wants to keep the Tanzverbot. And wtf that they want to prosecute people for possessing small amounts of marijuana, with CDU and AfD being the only other ones.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Saxony Wahl-o-mat is out: http://www.bpb.de/politik/wahlen/wahl-o-mat/293626/sachsen-2019


My results: Pirates first (88%). Greens and DIE PARTEI tied for second place (87%).

Last place: AfD (18.5%), followed by Blue Party/Team Petry (26.1%). [NPD at 33.7% probably due to their economically left-wing and more environmentally friendly policies?]


One thing I also noticed was that I tended to give slightly more "anti-authoritarian" answers in Saxony than in Brandenburg, hence also the better result for the Greens in Saxony. I suppose that could be a result of Saxony being governed since 1990 by a (compared to other state chapters) rather right-wing CDU and the AfD polling at ca. 25%, while Brandenburg has been governed by the SPD since 1990 with either the Left or a more moderate CDU as partner and the AfD polling at ca. 20% there. In essence, I have lesser trust in the Saxon state and the Saxon voters. This even led to the effect that I was slightly more willing to restrict immigration in Brandenburg than I was in Saxony.

[Good Habit]

o.k - I get 88.9 % for die Partei, 85,6 for die Linke and Piraten, more than 70 % as well for Ödp, Greens, SPD and Humanists.. Less than 33 % for FDP, CDU (30%), PDV, Team Petry, and last place for AfD, with just 20%.

[President Johnson]

I did Wal-O-Mat with the six major parties.


Saxony:

SPD: 60.5%
CDU: 59.2%
Greens: 55.3%
AfD: 55.3% (how can they have the exact same numbers the Greens?)
FDP: 53.0%
Left: 48.7%


Brandenburg:

CDU: 69.7% (lmao)
FDP: 67.1%
SPD: 65.8% (lol, my own party at #3 is kind of weird)
AfD: 59.2%
Greens: 51.3%
Left: 48.7% (the same number as Saxony)


It's funny, I hardly get to 70% in any of these Wahl-o-Mats, no matter which state or government level. Probably because there is no party that is actually liberal on social issues but center-right on immigration, pro environment while at the same time centrist on economics. I'm probably closest to the French En Marche or an Obama/Biden Democrat. The Social Democrats have moved to far to the left, especially on immigration and the economy, while the FDP is too liberatarian for my taste and the CDU too socially conservative and not enough pro environment. The Greens are crazy on immigration and identity politics, Left+AfD are nuts on almost every issue.

[Tender Branson]

New poll for the September 1 Brandenburg state election:

SPD: -15% (compared with the 2014 election)
CDU: -5%
Left: -5%
AfD: +9%
Greens: +10%
FW: +1%
FDP: +3%

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1159881248854237184

[pilskonzept]

Saxony:
 
PIRATEN 72,4 %
ÖDP 69,7 %
SPD 68,4 %
Die Humanisten 68,4 %
Tierschutzpartei 67,1 %
Die PARTEI 65,8 %
GRÜNE 65,8 %
DIE LINKE 64,5 %
CDU 59,2 %
KPD 57,9 %
FDP 56,6 %
FREIE WÄHLER 53,9 %
Gesundheitsforschung 53,9 %
BüSo 50 %
PDV 47,4 %
NPD 47,4 %
ADPM 43,4 %
Blaue #TeamPetry 40,8 %
AfD 34,2 %

Brandenburg:

CDU 71,1 %
SPD 67,1 %
GRÜNE/B 90 63,2 %
BVB / FREIE WÄHLER 60,5 %
ÖDP 59,2 %
Tierschutzpartei 57,9 %
FDP 57,9 %
AfD 55,3 %
DIE LINKE 55,3 %
V-Partei³ 55,3 %
PIRATEN 55,3%

Unweighted. Yes, I could imagine voting for the CDU in Brandenburg but never in Saxony.

[President Johnson]

New poll for the September 1 Brandenburg state election:

SPD: -15% (compared with the 2014 election)
CDU: -5%
Left: -5%
AfD: +9%
Greens: +10%
FW: +1%
FDP: +3%

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1159881248854237184

A result like this would require a coalition between everyone except for the AfD and the Left. That isn't healthy, especially if the FDP enters the legislature.

The SPD is about to lose the few states we're still doing relatively well. NRW polls for eample are equally bad, and it won't be better in three years when the election is being held there.

Unweighted. Yes, I could imagine voting for the CDU in Brandenburg but never in Saxony.

Honestly, I'd consider that in Saxony to stop the AfD from becoming the number one. We can't have that.

[Tender Branson]

Question:

Why was the NPD doing so well in Eisenach in this year's municipal and district elections ?

They got 11% there (+3%) and the AfD an additional 11%.

Eisenach is quite a big city with 40.000 people and not some random small town ...

[pilskonzept]

A result like this would require a coalition between everyone except for the AfD and the Left. That isn't healthy, especially if the FDP enters the legislature.

The SPD is about to lose the few states we're still doing relatively well. NRW polls for eample are equally bad, and it won't be better in three years when the election is being held there.

Unweighted. Yes, I could imagine voting for the CDU in Brandenburg but never in Saxony.

Honestly, I'd consider that in Saxony to stop the AfD from becoming the number one. We can't have that.

Would scare off investors and skilled immigrants even more than now, but not make much of a difference to a CDU 21%/AfD 20% result otherwise. IMHO. (I'd have voted for Ursu in the Görlitz runoff, though.)

[pilskonzept]

Question:

Why was the NPD doing so well in Eisenach in this year's municipal and district elections ?

They got 11% there (+3%) and the AfD an additional 11%.

Eisenach is quite a big city with 40.000 people and not some random small town ...

They opposed the merger of Eisenach with the surrounding district.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Question:

Why was the NPD doing so well in Eisenach in this year's municipal and district elections ?

They got 11% there (+3%) and the AfD an additional 11%.

Eisenach is quite a big city with 40.000 people and not some random small town ...

Eisenach just seems to be a sanctuary for Nazis. Just like Leipzig is overrun with the Antifa, whereas they are quite meaningless in Dresden.
It's just a bit astonishing that Eisenach lies in the western part of Thuringia, almost bordering Hesse.

I discovered an interesting article about an alliance between the CDU and the NPD, which CDU state chairman Mike Mohring wasn't fond of.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Okay, if that's what the sPD thinks about democracy and the needs of their potential voters, I can't wait for the sPD to deceed the 5% threshold in Saxony in three weeks. (The part is polling at 8% in Saxony right now.) 😡

[DavidB.]

Question:

Why was the NPD doing so well in Eisenach in this year's municipal and district elections ?

They got 11% there (+3%) and the AfD an additional 11%.

Eisenach is quite a big city with 40.000 people and not some random small town ...

Where can I check all of these election results?

My unweighted Wahl-O-Mat result for Saxony:

AfD 90.8%
CDU 63.2%
FDP 63.2%
SPD 30.3%
Grüne 19.7%
Linke 15.8%

My choice would seem clear...

[urutzizu]

Where can I check all of these election results?

There is no national results page. The regional broadcaster generally has nice interactive result maps, i linked the ones for the states that held local elections in 2019:

Thüringen
Saxony-Anhalt
Saarland
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
Rheinland-Pfalz
Brandenburg
Baden-Württemberg
Saxony

Edit: Forgot Hamburg

[DavidB.]

Thanks!

[urutzizu]

The AFD is running a interesting campaign in the eastern elections: Is seems to be focused around "Wende 2.0" and including much more German Symbolism (incl. Flags) and the slogan of "Wir sind das Volk (We are the people)"-
A recent speech by Alexander Gauland in Saxony: "Just like then, my friends, angry citizens are taking to the streets, to demand their rights. Just like then, these Citizens are being attacked by violent mobs, being defamed by the media, and being punished in their occupations. Again Saxony is the heart of the resistance"

They are putting themselves on the footing of the East German Civil rights movement of 1989 and comparing the current German State, or the "Merkel regime" if you so will, to the socialist regime in East Germany. It is a problematic comparison of course, but is is working. The fact that it is shows quite clearly how east Germans feel like they were sold down the river since Unification, and how split Germany is as a country. The AFD feels at times actually like encouraging east german nationalism, but at the same time their central ideology remains German nationalism. It is bizzare.

[DL]

The AFD is running a interesting campaign in the eastern elections: Is seems to be focused around "Wende 2.0" and including much more German Symbolism (incl. Flags) and the slogan of "Wir sind das Volk (We are the people)"-
A recent speech by Alexander Gauland in Saxony: "Just like then, my friends, angry citizens are taking to the streets, to demand their rights. Just like then, these Citizens are being attacked by violent mobs, being defamed by the media, and being punished in their occupations. Again Saxony is the heart of the resistance"

They are putting themselves on the footing of the East German Civil rights movement of 1989 and comparing the current German State, or the "Merkel regime" if you so will, to the socialist regime in East Germany. It is a problematic comparison of course, but is is working. The fact that it is shows quite clearly how east Germans feel like they were sold down the river since Unification, and how split Germany is as a country. The AFD feels at times actually like encouraging east german nationalism, but at the same time their central ideology remains German nationalism. It is bizzare.

Isnt that the whole raison d'etre of the Linke party?

[urutzizu]

Isnt that the whole raison d'etre of the Linke party?

Indeed, well it was. The immigration issue ended that, and now it seems the AFD is taking that mantle of "protectors of the east". Not sure if that is such a good strategy in the long term however. The AFD has double as many voters (4 Million) in the West as in the East (2 Million). Trying to max out its results the east and turning off its more middle class voters in the west is not really sensible.


In other news Germany is now likely in recession territory, after the Economy shrank in the second quarter. This means that all the nice spending promises of the SPD to attempt to buy back their voters, such as the minimum pension, are likely as dead as the dodo. Take into account the end of the solidarity tax, and there will be some serious belt tightening. The SPD is angry, as expected, they want Germany to take on more debt to finance their pet projects. Merkel says no. Maybe the SPD will notice that there is now no real reason to continue the coalition, except as to avoid elections.
In reality both are irresponsible. We do actually need a stimulus, as basically all economists say, but infrastructure spending, not voter bribing. But that is not allowed in Germany.  

[TheSaint250]

Are there any good prediction/poll tracking sites for the upcoming state elections?  Three that I found were election.de, wahlkreisprognose.de, and dawum.de.

[Keep Calm and ...]

My first choice for opinion polls and its chronology is
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/index.htm

[DL]

In other news Germany is now likely in recession territory, after the Economy shrank in the second quarter. This means that all the nice spending promises of the SPD to attempt to buy back their voters, such as the minimum pension, are likely as dead as the dodo.
In reality both are irresponsible. We do actually need a stimulus, as basically all economists say, but infrastructure spending, not voter bribing. But that is not allowed in Germany.  

Wouldnt that also have an impact on the Green Party and their plans to spend trillions of euros putting a wind turbine in every backyard?