🇩🇪 German state & local elections

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After the Brandenburg poll, there is a second state where the AfD is leading: Saxony. No surprise here.



For comparison: the results of the 2014 state election.



And here are the Saxon results of the 2017 federal election:



And finally the Saxon results of this year's European election:



Source: tax-funded state TV news portal tagesschau. (R.I.P. Wilhelm Wieben)

And for the hardcore psephology geeks out there, here are the aggregated results of this year's local elections in Saxony:

[Yeahsayyeah]

With these numbers Saxony would become nearly ungovernable. Imagine a Kenya-Government nobody wants hanging on on CDU-overhang-seats and weird Green backbenchers, while CDU and SPD are licking their wounds and bickering around extensively.

[rob in cal]

  SPD drifting down toward the 5% danger zone. Also FDP in striking distance of overtaking SPD in Saxony.

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With these numbers Saxony would become nearly ungovernable. Imagine a Kenya-Government nobody wants hanging on on CDU-overhang-seats and weird Green backbenchers, while CDU and SPD are licking their wounds and bickering around extensively.

I could also imagine a Jamaica coalition.

[Yeahsayyeah]

It would probably not be enough seats for a Jamaica coalition. It would depend on overhang seats (that are not fully compensated in the Saxon electoral system). On the other hand I don't think it would be politically feasible. The Saxon Greens are a relatively left wing state party, that rejected the possibility of a black-green coalition by high margins in 2014. And the Saxon FDP is more of the "we only have to buld streets and decrease unnessecary bureaucracy like environmental protection and everything will be fine" sort.

[Former President tack50]

Any chance of a state getting a "Negative majority" soon? (AfD+Linke at a majority and no possibility of Red-Red-Green, which would "solve" the issue)

I imagine the former GDR states would be prime candidates for that and iirc one of them (Saxony-Anhalt I believe?) only very narrowly avoided one reciently.

And what would happen if a negative majority ends up happening somewhere?

CDU finally drops the cordon sanitaire and does a deal with AfD?
An awkward (to say the least) "everyone except AfD" coalition, propped up by Linke?
A AfD-Linke coalition?

[urutzizu]

Saxonys AFD is running considerably more to the traditional right and away from the far right "Vogelschiss/Denkmal der Schande" Höcke-aligned fractions in thuringia and Brandenburg. Saxony is also the only state where there are serious discussions in the CDU about Black-blue (Blaubeere?) coalitions. Kretschmer has denied it, but many in the CDU fraction want to consider it.

The AFDs strategy is obvious. They want to either break the Cordon sanitaire or destroy the CDUs credibilty by forcing them into ever more instable constellations, even with the linke (as Daniel Günther has proposed).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Saxonys AFD is running considerably more to the traditional right and away from the far right "Vogelschiss/Denkmal der Schande" Höcke-aligned fractions in thuringia and Brandenburg. Saxony is also the only state where there are serious discussions in the CDU about Black-blue (Blaubeere?) coalitions. Kretschmer has denied it, but many in the CDU fraction want to consider it.

The AFDs strategy is obvious. They want to either break the Cordon sanitaire or destroy the CDUs credibilty by forcing them into ever more instable constellations, even with the linke (as Daniel Günther has proposed).

I'm astonished at how many technical terms you learn in this forum.
So, what do you mean by "Cordon sanitaire", a term that was originally aimed at the stripe between the German Reich and the Soviet Union consisting of freshly minted states after WWI?

I like the coalition name "blueberry" by the way. If the CDU and the Left ever gonna strike up a cooperation, their coalition oughta be called "loganberry coalition".

[urutzizu]

So, what do you mean by "Cordon sanitaire", a term that was originally aimed at the stripe between the German Reich and the Soviet Union consisting of freshly minted states after WWI?

The Cordon sanitaire has a quite similar in political discourse as in historical discourse, just that instead of trying to isolate the post-revolution Soviet Union it is a method to isolate parties precieved to be extreme. It was first used in Belgium with the far-right Vlaams Belang, and is intended as a sanitary curtain that all mainstream parties adhere to and agree to not cooperate whatsoever with said extremists. In Germany this is of course the tactic used against the Afd currently and against the PDS until the late 90s when some SPD MPs in the East started (against Schröders will) to work with them.

We are currently at the point where the Coalitions that the mainsteam parties have to engage in (in the east) are getting way to large and instable so that the CDU will have to eventually have to break the cordon sanitaire either with Die Linke of the AFD to avoid imminent negative majorities (AFD+Linke are 40-45% in some states, how the hell can you say "oh well these are all fringe extremists, we arent talking to them"). Also the Ostracization and constant Opposition, and self-imposed Victim role (see the Bundestag-vice presidency) is only helping the Afd, instead of keeping them from power. This is sorta also what happened in Weimar Germany with the NSDAP so i am not exactly optimistic about the Cordon Sanitiaire.

[Former President tack50]

Saxonys AFD is running considerably more to the traditional right and away from the far right "Vogelschiss/Denkmal der Schande" Höcke-aligned fractions in thuringia and Brandenburg. Saxony is also the only state where there are serious discussions in the CDU about Black-blue (Blaubeere?) coalitions. Kretschmer has denied it, but many in the CDU fraction want to consider it.

The AFDs strategy is obvious. They want to either break the Cordon sanitaire or destroy the CDUs credibilty by forcing them into ever more instable constellations, even with the linke (as Daniel Günther has proposed).

I'm astonished at how many technical terms you learn in this forum.
So, what do you mean by "Cordon sanitaire", a term that was originally aimed at the stripe between the German Reich and the Soviet Union consisting of freshly minted states after WWI?

I like the coalition name "blueberry" by the way. If the CDU and the Left ever gonna strike up a cooperation, their coalition oughta be called "loganberry coalition".

Since Germany loves naming coalitions after country flags, maybe they should name it Estonia coalition?

No white party though

[Yeahsayyeah]

There is already a name for that: Baum-Frick-administration.

Actually I can't really fathom how the CDU in Saxony could do a coalition with a party whose leaders literally say things like "The CDU should face reality now and subjugate to us". So I think, this time the cordon sanitaire will probably hold, but it's probably the last round.

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There is already a name for that: Baum-Frick-administration.

LOL. Ironically they governed Thuringia.
But to be fair and exact, the NSDAP's official party color was brown, not blue.

Actually I can't really fathom how the CDU in Saxony could do a coalition with a party whose leaders literally say things like "The CDU should face reality now and subjugate to us". So I think, this time the cordon sanitaire will probably hold, but it's probably the last round.

That literally sounds like Lafontaine from 2005.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Since Germany loves naming coalitions after country flags, maybe they should name it Estonia coalition?

No white party though

If CDU, AfD and FDP ever form a government, they ought to name their coalition for the Bahamas.

[Oryxslayer]

So, what do you mean by "Cordon sanitaire", a term that was originally aimed at the stripe between the German Reich and the Soviet Union consisting of freshly minted states after WWI?

The Cordon sanitaire has a quite similar in political discourse as in historical discourse, just that instead of trying to isolate the post-revolution Soviet Union it is a method to isolate parties precieved to be extreme. It was first used in Belgium with the far-right Vlaams Belang, and is intended as a sanitary curtain that all mainstream parties adhere to and agree to not cooperate whatsoever with said extremists. In Germany this is of course the tactic used against the Afd currently and against the PDS until the late 90s when some SPD MPs in the East started (against Schröders will) to work with them.

We are currently at the point where the Coalitions that the mainsteam parties have to engage in (in the east) are getting way to large and instable so that the CDU will have to eventually have to break the cordon sanitaire either with Die Linke of the AFD to avoid imminent negative majorities (AFD+Linke are 40-45% in some states, how the hell can you say "oh well these are all fringe extremists, we arent talking to them"). Also the Ostracization and constant Opposition, and self-imposed Victim role (see the Bundestag-vice presidency) is only helping the Afd, instead of keeping them from power. This is sorta also what happened in Weimar Germany with the NSDAP so i am not exactly optimistic about the Cordon Sanitiaire.

Its not totally ungovernable since the SPD has broke the cordon as stated, and R2G is a normal thing in the east. So there isn't really a negative majority unless Union+AfD+FDP > 50%, and prevents R2G. Like the brandenburg poll has a high chance of returning a R2G majority. This of course doesn't solve saxony's problems though.

[Tender Branson]

When do polls close in Görlitz today ?

6pm ?

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When do polls in Görlitz close today ?

6pm ?

Yes. 6 pm is the poll closing time In Germany required by law.

[Tender Branson]

There is a very notable mayoral election in Saxony that has spread as far afield as Hollywood:

The 56,500 inhabitants of the Saxon city of Görlitz, directly adjacent to Poland, were called upon to elect a successor to independent Mayor Siegfried Deinege on May 26.
Here are the results:

Sebastian Wippel (AfD): 36.4%
Octavian Ursu (CDU): 30.3%
Franziska Schubert (Greens): 27.9%
Jana Lübeck (Left): 5.5%
(voter turnout: 58.6%)

As no candidate received a majority, there will be a run-off on June 16.
So far, so good. If Görlitz wasn't a popular film shooting location for Hollywood productions...
Movie producer Michael Simon de Normier, who co-produced The Reader, starring Kate Winslet, who won an Oscar, a Golden Globe, and a BAFTA Award for her role as Hanna Schmitz, is planning on cinematizing a Beethoven biography in Görlitz in 2020. Dreading the prospect of an AfD mayor creating a climate of intolerance and xenophobia, he launched an urgent appeal for open-mindedness and to not vote for Wippel. Movies such as The Reader, Inglourious Basterds, Around the World in 80 Days, or The Grand Budapest Hotel were shot in front of the magnificent backdrop of Görlitz' history-charged old town, which is why the city is "Görliwood" by film geeks. De Normier is dreading that filmmakers might abandon Görlitz if Wippel becomes the mayor of that city. 33 celebrities have singed his public appeal so far, among them also British three-time Oscar nominated director Stephen Daldry.

So here is my prediction for the Görlitz mayoral runoff then:

61.3% Ursu (CDU)
38.7% Wippel (AfD)

Görlitz does not become Wels, a similar-sized Austrian city (the only one with more than 30.000 people with a blue mayor).

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Here is a photo of him. I can't explain why, but he looks AfD-esque... 😏

https://twitter.com/AfD/status/1139535974499852293

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https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1140293425423691777

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Here is a timeline for the Görlitz mayoral election:

https://www.mdr.de/sachsen/politik/wahlen/kommunalwahlen/news-ticker-zweiter-wahlgang-buergermeister100.html

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https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1140307515541983232

[Umengus]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1140307515541983232

better than predicted for AFD.

[President Johnson]

After the red-red-green coalition in Bremen has finally been formed (after severe SPD losses), Mayor Carsten Sieling announced he would not be avaible as city-state's head of government. Ironically, this is how he himself rose to power in 2015 after his predessor Jens Böhrnsen declined to stay on after a disappointing showing at the polls. This means, Bremen will get the second mayor in a row who starts at the beginning of the term without having run in the election.

https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1145639179679916032

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

After the red-red-green coalition in Bremen has finally been formed (after severe SPD losses), Mayor Carsten Sieling announced he would not be avaible as city-state's head of government. Ironically, this is how he himself rose to power in 2015 after his predessor Jens Böhrnsen declined to stay on after a disappointing showing at the polls. This means, Bremen will get the second mayor in a row who starts at the beginning of the term without having run in the election.

The coalition agreement has still to be approved by the members of the three parties, which can be assumed. The tax payers from the other state will be really looking forward to the new Bremen senate...
By the way - have you heard what the new coalition is going to do as their very first political decision? They are going raise the number of senators (= executive members) from eight to nine. 😒

[President Johnson]

After the red-red-green coalition in Bremen has finally been formed (after severe SPD losses), Mayor Carsten Sieling announced he would not be avaible as city-state's head of government. Ironically, this is how he himself rose to power in 2015 after his predessor Jens Böhrnsen declined to stay on after a disappointing showing at the polls. This means, Bremen will get the second mayor in a row who starts at the beginning of the term without having run in the election.

The coalition agreement has still to be approved by the members of the three parties, which can be assumed. The tax payers from the other state will be really looking forward to the new Bremen senate...
By the way - have you heard what the new coalition is going to do as their very first political decision? They are going raise the number of senators (= executive members) from eight to nine. 😒

That's pretty moderate compared to our state government in Baden-Württemberg. When the Green-Black coalition assumed office in 2016, they increased the number of state secretaries by a fair number.

In Bremen, I would have preferred a coaltion with the FDP instead of the Left. A traffic light coaltion would have a majority of one seat (44 out of 84).