Describe a Democrat-2014/Republican-2018 voter (user search)
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  Describe a Democrat-2014/Republican-2018 voter (search mode)
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Author Topic: Describe a Democrat-2014/Republican-2018 voter  (Read 2739 times)
Calthrina950
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« on: October 29, 2019, 11:36:51 PM »

Depends on if it is at the federal or state level.

At the federal level, one rather historical location is Elliot county KY. It voted for the dem candidate every election from 1872-2012, with Obama winning by less than 3 percent before giving 70% to trump. It also backed the dem in every congress, senate and governor election since the 1960s. In 2014 they voted for Kenneth Stepp over incumbent republican Hal Rogers. In 2018, they went for Hal Rogers. These voters were of course historically moderate democrats who loved trump's populist appeal.

Another notable example could be a democrat from Michigan who supported Gary Peters for the US senate in 2014 won by 13% but who then supported John James, who lost by just 6%.

And finally, someone from New Jersey who found Bob Menendez too corrupt to reelect.

The state level is another story.
Here the most likely case was an open governor's election where a voter supported a dem over a republican who narrowly won. They then thought the incumbent republican was doing a good job and thus supported him in 2018. This for sure happened in Vermont, Massachusetts and Maryland.

In Florida, Desantis flipped two Crist counties. These voters were probably willing to vote for a republican turned democrat with Charlie Crist but found Andrew Gillum to progressive.

Also could someone explain how Monroe county Ohio went from Ed Fitgerald to Mike Dewine?

The other county I can't at all understand is Jefferson county Kansas, which supported Paul Davis over Sam Brownback but went back to the GOP with Kris Kobach. If they hated the Brownback so much, why would they support Brownback X10?

I'll give an answer to each of these in turn:

1) I'm not sure if we could describe Elliott County Democrats as "moderate". They are staunch social conservatives, the same as their fellow ancestral Republican and (formerly) ancestral Democratic neighbors in SE Kentucky.

2) Monroe County's shift can be explained by the Democratic collapse in rural and white-working class, blue collar areas. DeWine did much better than Kasich in the traditionally Democratic regions of Southern and Eastern Ohio, while underperforming him in the major metropolitan counties and suburbs. Monroe County flipped at the federal level in 2012 to Mitt Romney, after having gone Democratic in every election from 1976-2008. And in 2016, Trump got more than 70% of the vote there (just like in Elliott). Monroe County is gone for the Democrats, and is now Safe Republican.

3) Again, same reason as #2. Kansas's rural areas were very Republican in 2016, with Trump breaking 70% or 80% in many counties (and even 90% in Wallace County). The same rural-suburban trends taking place elsewhere hit Kansas as well, as one can see by Kelly significantly outperforming Davis in Johnson, Shawnee, and Sedgwick Counties.
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