AZ: Trafalgar: McSally +2.1
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  AZ: Trafalgar: McSally +2.1		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: AZ: Trafalgar: McSally +2.1  (Read 3561 times)
reagente
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« on: November 06, 2018, 02:14:20 PM »
McSally (R) - 47.4%
Sinema (D) - 45.3%
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2018, 02:26:28 PM »
That 0.1 really sold it to me.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2018, 02:29:48 PM »
Trash. McSally is done. Fundamentals are not in her favor. Period
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GMantis
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« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2018, 02:30:56 PM »
Do they actually think that the decimals make their polls more believable?
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« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2018, 02:32:59 PM »
LOL Decimals
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Person Man
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« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2018, 02:35:26 PM »
They got Michigan dead on last year. Then again, they had Trump up 4 in Florida. The polling average was Trump up 1 in Florida. Trump got 1.  They had Trump up like 5 in Nevada and 3 in Pennsylvania.
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UWS
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« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2018, 02:39:58 PM »
Quote from: Come on! on November 06, 2018, 02:35:26 PM
They got Michigan dead on last year. Then again, they had Trump up 4 in Florida. The polling average was Trump up 1 in Florida. Trump got 1.  They had Trump up like 5 in Nevada and 3 in Pennsylvania.

Well they got it right when it comes to Florida and Pennsylvania since Trump actually won both of these states.
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Person Man
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« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2018, 02:49:01 PM »
Quote from: UWS on November 06, 2018, 02:39:58 PM
Quote from: Come on! on November 06, 2018, 02:35:26 PM
They got Michigan dead on last year. Then again, they had Trump up 4 in Florida. The polling average was Trump up 1 in Florida. Trump got 1.  They had Trump up like 5 in Nevada and 3 in Pennsylvania.

Well they got it right when it comes to Florida and Pennsylvania since Trump actually won both of these states.

Yeah...but can they be trusted when everyone else says the opposite and their leads aren't the biggest? I believe that these numbers are the best case scenario for Republicans but not the most likely outcome. 2016 was the best case scenario for the Republicans and still they just overperformed by 1.5%. That should be enough to win Missouri, Iowa and Arizona, keep the House close, and may get 52% of the TPV in KS and SD while making people sweat balls over Florida and Oregon. Don't think it would be enough to drag in Nevada, Indiana, or Montana.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2018, 02:52:49 PM »
It's possible that Trafalgar just got lucky in 2016.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2018, 02:54:09 PM »
Look at their results in Virginia and Alabama last year.
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Lachi
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« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2018, 03:52:11 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 02:54:09 PM
Look at their results in Virginia and Alabama last year.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2018, 03:54:36 PM »
Special elections are not the same as general elections.
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2018, 03:55:52 PM »
Especially Alabama, lol. Not exactly the best election to extrapolate a pollster's credibility from.
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Person Man
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« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2018, 03:56:09 PM »

why?
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DrScholl
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« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2018, 03:57:20 PM »

Virginia wasn't a special election and even if Alabama was a special election it still doesn't lend credibility that the pollster was off several points.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2018, 04:41:23 PM »
Quote from: Pickup Paulite on November 06, 2018, 03:55:52 PM
Especially Alabama, lol. Not exactly the best election to extrapolate a pollster's credibility from.

Yes it is. Serious firms like PPP and Monmouth nailed the Alabama election.
Non-serious like Trafalgar and Emerson missed it by a wide mark.
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