Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Somehow it's still possible that we'll end up with no net chance in the Senate.  Not likely, but still possible!

[Virginiá]

Nah, the federal courts have zero desire to wade into that morass.

Maybe, but I have no faith in John Roberts, the man who constantly feigns anxiety about the court's reputation but then proceeds to gorge himself on partisan decisions that always seem to benefit the Republican Party immensely.

Also, apparently he was quite animated in his dissent to the AZ redistricting commission lawsuit, so I don't feel good about a rematch.

[Storr]

CNN now has Tester up 5k votes, 49.1% - 48.0%

Well, that leaves 2 seats in the senate to be decided, FL, and AZ.

Technically Mississippi too.

[Zaybay]

CNN now has Tester up 5k votes, 49.1% - 48.0%

Well, that leaves 2 seats in the senate to be decided, FL, and AZ.

Technically Mississippi too.

Unless the D strength suddenly reappears, I doubt we get that one.

[Badger]

Confirmed that there are 472K votes left to be counted in Maricopa county.

How are the remaining ballots looking for Sinema? Is Maricopa a good county for her?

She currently leads in Maricopa by 1%, but it's way too early to tell if that will extrapolate to the other votes or not

The county usually leans Republican, but has been slowly trending democratic in recent elections.

[Zaybay]

Somehow it's still possible that we'll end up with no net chance in the Senate.  Not likely, but still possible!

Well, no, its impossible to get a net change of 0 in the senate. The best Ds can do is R+1 at this point, if they win FL and AZ.

[Vespucci]

Somehow it's still possible that we'll end up with no net chance in the Senate.  Not likely, but still possible!

Well, no, its impossible to get a net change of 0 in the senate. The best Ds can do is R+1 at this point, if they win FL and AZ.

If they somehow win MS it would be 0, but that’s not happening.

[Tender Branson]

Somehow it's still possible that we'll end up with no net chance in the Senate.  Not likely, but still possible!

Well, no, its impossible to get a net change of 0 in the senate. The best Ds can do is R+1 at this point, if they win FL and AZ.

I guess he's talking about this scenario + picking up MS-special in the runoff.

[RI]

I think James would have a very good shot at picking off the MI Senate seat in 2020 (as long as Trump is competitive).

[Badger]

FL is still tightening.
Nelson down 30K.
Gillum down 50K.

Just saw. CNN is ahead of NYT here. That was a net of about 4k for Nelson since first thing this morning. Maybe Nelson can pull it out? Seems unlikely to me but I guess not entirely impossible. Gillum is done, though.

https://twitter.com/AprilDRyan/status/1060196196948566017

Gillum camp thinks that when all votes are counted they will be down 15K, so a gain of 35K. If you extrapolate that to Nelson he's up by 5K.

Ugh don’t give me any false hope

This times 10.

Oh, WTF. It's already done. If, and I cannot emphasize if enough, Nelson and Lord Almighty, Gillum were to actually pull this out, my sh**ty ish feelings from last night would actually be largely mollified. I thought Donnelly was going to win, but certainly and not shocked he lost even if the margin was surprising. I'll still be bummed regardless as to how uniformly the Ohio democrats struck out. But if Florida has a Democratic governor going into redistricting and the Republicans only net one seat in the Senate, combined with over 30 seats picked up in the house and over half a dozen governorships including crucial ones in Florida Michigan and Wisconsin, I'm feeling pretty good about last night.

Okay Florida. I have placed my emotional well-being in your elections hands, which is totally normal. Please validate my self-worth in your recount system. Again, totally normal.

[Virginiá]

What happened to Strong Candidate Jeff Van Drew

[Zaybay]

What happened to Strong Candidate Jeff Van Drew

Turns out moderate candidates may not do better than Progressive ones, and vice versa, appeal is what matters, and Van Drew was on autopilot the entire election.

[MillennialModerate]

Tester might pull it out, thank god.

If only Sinema didn’t choke.

+2 R’s wouldn’t be THAT bad.

If Florida had done it’s job then it would have been +1 which would be even better.

But like 2016, so close but so far

[wbrocks67]

Tester might pull it out, thank god.

If only Sinema didn’t choke.

+2 R’s wouldn’t be THAT bad.

If Florida had done it’s job then it would have been +1 which would be even better.

But like 2016, so close but so far

There is like 500-600k more votes to be counted in AZ...

[Pandaguineapig]

It looks like the count may narrow but the votes really aren't there for Nelson to win, the Arizona vote dump will setermine whether Republicans get 53 or 54 seats

[Zaybay]

Tester might pull it out, thank god.

If only Sinema didn’t choke.

+2 R’s wouldn’t be THAT bad.

If Florida had done it’s job then it would have been +1 which would be even better.

But like 2016, so close but so far

Seriously man, stop it. MT was already called, its a D hold. AZ has 1/4 the ballots not in the totals. FL is going to be really close.

Stop calling races before all the ballots are tallied.

[pppolitics]

Should they call the CA-25 race for Hill? She has a comfortable lead and provisionals are only going to expand it.

I know Katie Hill.

...and I don't mean, I met her once.

I mean, I know Katie Hill.

I didn't thought she would win (believed NYT/Sierra poll) and didn't look up the result (for CA-25) until this morning and was like YES!

[President Johnson]

Yes, JON TESTER is reelected! Thank god, Tester lives. #populist

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Should they call the CA-25 race for Hill? She has a comfortable lead and provisionals are only going to expand it.

I know Katie Hill.

...and I don't mean, I met her once.

I mean, I know Katie Hill.

I didn't thought she would win (believed NYT/Sierra poll) and didn't look up the result (for CA-25) until this morning and was like YES!

YES! She will be excellent in congress! I always knew she was going to win.

[Person Man]

I wound have been happy about the results last night but for the Bradley Effect in Florida. Whether or not its a the Bradley Effect, people need to lose their f[inks]ing jobs over this! I mean, what the f[inks]? Get fooled once shame on them... get fooled twice, shame on you!

[Skye]

Tester might pull it out, thank god.

If only Sinema didn’t choke.

+2 R’s wouldn’t be THAT bad.

If Florida had done it’s job then it would have been +1 which would be even better.

But like 2016, so close but so far

lmao don't you have any shame? Weren't you disregarding facts about this race a few pages before?

[pppolitics]

Confirmed that there are 472K votes left to be counted in Maricopa county.

How are the remaining ballots looking for Sinema? Is Maricopa a good county for her?

She currently leads in Maricopa by 1%, but it's way too early to tell if that will extrapolate to the other votes or not

Is it even plausible for a Democrat to win Maricopa county and lose the state?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Is there any chance there remaining ballots could still swing CA-10 to Harder?

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Is there any chance there remaining ballots could still swing CA-10 to Harder?

Based on the previous history of California's late count, I would say that's almost certain actually.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Is there any chance there remaining ballots could still swing CA-10 to Harder?

Based on the previous history of California's late count, I would say that's almost certain actually.