Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Tintrlvr]

As I said back in June when Sanford lost the primary in SC-1, I'm not surprised the Democrats picked up the seat. The overall demographics here do not support that the Republicans are radically right winged, and many people I came across in my professional and personal life all said if Sanford had won, they'd have voted for him, but not Arrington. She won because GOP turnout in the primary was poor and only the radical base showed up.


If the GOP runs a competent candidate in 2020, I doubt Cunningham holds the seat, but I'm glad our district did the right thing and put Cunningham in Washington.

Isn't the Charleston area trending D?

It is, definitely. The seat is still R+10 PVI, though, so will be tough for Cunningham to hold though not necessarily impossible. Will be dependent to a great degree on the Republican nominee. I wonder if Sanford will consider running again.

[Skye]

Why is the NYT forecasting it's going to end up 53-47 if they have McSally as the favorite? Or am I missing something?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Something to remember: outside of the Atlas/punditsphere, a majority of Americans were expecting Republicans to hold both the House and the Senate.

Huh, I didn't notice that pre-election.  Do you have a source on this? (Genuine asking)

I do, but I'm on my phone right now, and I saw it a couple of weeks ago, so i don't have a quick link to post. I'll post it when I do.

This is basically impossible for me to believe when "Blue Wave" was a completely mainstream meme.

[Vern]

Something to remember: outside of the Atlas/punditsphere, a majority of Americans were expecting Republicans to hold both the House and the Senate.

Huh, I didn't notice that pre-election.  Do you have a source on this? (Genuine asking)

I do, but I'm on my phone right now, and I saw it a couple of weeks ago, so i don't have a quick link to post. I'll post it when I do.

This is basically impossible for me to believe when "Blue Wave" was a completely mainstream meme.

Right, The Democrats underperformed what the mainstream were saying they were going to do. At the end of the day it was a normal Midterm results.

[Tintrlvr]

Beto O'Rourke and Stacey Abrams got more votes than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 in those states. That's insane.

I didn't think Democrats winning Texas in a Presidential election could happen before 2024 at the absolute earliest (and was always really bearish on Clinton's chances in Texas, e.g., and on O'Rourke), but based on these results, with Presidential-year Latino turnout and two more years of demographic change, I'd be sweating as a Republican that the Democrats could win Texas in 2020.

[Zaybay]

This is when they stopped counting MT and why Tester is likely gonna win:
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1060120486095536129

[SuperCow]

Beto O'Rourke and Stacey Abrams got more votes than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 in those states. That's insane.

Not really. It's easy to believe that somebody who didn't like Hillary Clinton might vote for a different Democrat.

[SuperCow]

I actually think that Arizona could be called soon enough. RCP says that 98 % of the vote in Arizona are reported and McSally is ahead by 1.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2018/state/az/senate/

Does anyone think that if Martha McSally wins she should thank Angela Green for winning 2% of the vote in a race with less than a 1% margin of victory?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are happy to take the House and Senate in 2020 and 2022 are Dem years. This is the peak for the GOP

[GeorgiaModerate]

Something to remember: outside of the Atlas/punditsphere, a majority of Americans were expecting Republicans to hold both the House and the Senate.

Huh, I didn't notice that pre-election.  Do you have a source on this? (Genuine asking)

In the last Gallup poll, Americans expected the Republicans to take the House by 50-44...despite favoring the Democratic candidates by 54-43.  Source.  Interestingly, Gallup has asked this question in several previous midterms going back to 1946, and this is the first time the public's prediction has been wrong.

[Mr.Phips]

Beto O'Rourke and Stacey Abrams got more votes than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 in those states. That's insane.

I didn't think Democrats winning Texas in a Presidential election could happen before 2024 at the absolute earliest (and was always really bearish on Clinton's chances in Texas, e.g., and on O'Rourke), but based on these results, with Presidential-year Latino turnout and two more years of demographic change, I'd be sweating as a Republican that the Democrats could win Texas in 2020.

I'm going to be #bold and say that Texas, Georgia, and Arizona are more winnable for Dems than Iowa, Ohio and Florida (?) at this point.

You may not be too far off base here.  I don't think Florida and Ohio are winnable anymore for Dems.

[MillennialModerate]

Dems are happy to take the House and Senate in 2020 and 2022 are Dem years. This is the peak for the GOP

Stop lol.....

[Vespucci]

Beto O'Rourke and Stacey Abrams got more votes than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 in those states. That's insane.

I didn't think Democrats winning Texas in a Presidential election could happen before 2024 at the absolute earliest (and was always really bearish on Clinton's chances in Texas, e.g., and on O'Rourke), but based on these results, with Presidential-year Latino turnout and two more years of demographic change, I'd be sweating as a Republican that the Democrats could win Texas in 2020.

I'm going to be #bold and say that Texas, Georgia, and Arizona are more winnable for Dems than Iowa, Ohio and Florida (?) at this point.

You may not be too far off base here.  I don't think Florida and Ohio are winnable anymore for Dems.

FL is still a Presidential swing state, the Dems just can’t turn anyone out in midterms.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Dems are happy to take the House and Senate in 2020 and 2022 are Dem years. This is the peak for the GOP

Stop lol.....

Yeah it's a BETTER map in 2020 for Dems with the Republicans on defense, but it's ludicrous to say that 2020 will be a Dem year outright.

[Zaybay]

Beto O'Rourke and Stacey Abrams got more votes than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 in those states. That's insane.

I didn't think Democrats winning Texas in a Presidential election could happen before 2024 at the absolute earliest (and was always really bearish on Clinton's chances in Texas, e.g., and on O'Rourke), but based on these results, with Presidential-year Latino turnout and two more years of demographic change, I'd be sweating as a Republican that the Democrats could win Texas in 2020.

I'm going to be #bold and say that Texas, Georgia, and Arizona are more winnable for Dems than Iowa, Ohio and Florida (?) at this point.

You may not be too far off base here.  I don't think Florida and Ohio are winnable anymore for Dems.

Yeah, I would agree, FL is one of the few states that has a solid GOP trend, and OH seems to be retaining its R status in 2016. But GA, AZ, and TX are moving rather slowly, still. Perhaps these states will be more D in a presidential year, but, well, we have to wait for 2020 for that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Love that like 95% of the reaction Online is either ridiculous, excessive DOOM or delusional optimism.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Love that like 95% of the reaction Online is either ridiculous, excessive DOOM or delusional optimism.

[Inmate Trump]

So what is actually wrong with the polls?

Why do they seem to keep getting things wrong?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Love that like 95% of the reaction Online is either ridiculous, excessive DOOM or delusional optimism.

"We took the House, but the Senate is lost until the year 3000.  Maybe then we'll be able to flip Saturn, but Venus is a Longshot Republican stronghold."

[GeorgiaModerate]

Love that like 95% of the reaction Online is either ridiculous, excessive DOOM or delusional optimism.

"We took the House, but the Senate is lost until the year 3000.  Maybe then we'll be able to flip Saturn, but Venus is a Longshot Republican stronghold."

LOL

[Torie]

I am not sure why there is much of an argument about Montana. The math is below, assuming that what is out in the counties with uncounted votes, comes in with the same split as the votes previously counted in the county. All four counties with uncounted votes went for Tester, by substantial margins.

[Nyvin]

If Cuomo wants to keeps the GOP-IDC coalition in the NY State Senate, they'd need 9 state senators to flip now.

[7,052,770]

NYT thinks the final margin in Florida is Scott winning by around 6,000, but there are enough error bars on that for Nelson to still have an outside shot.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Per CNN: Bill Nelson officially requesting a recount in his race against Rick Scott.

[Storr]

If Cuomo wants to keeps the GOP-IDC coalition in the NY State Senate, they'd need 9 state senators to flip now.

Why would he want that? Democrats won the NY Senate.