Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

SC-01 is down to 3 points.

almost down to 2 points

gonna be poppin mad bottles if Joe pulls it off

So excited if Joe wins. It's basically tied now with still 35% out in Charleston county. Colleton still hasn't reported, but that county could go either way

[Badger]

Did anybody have Ohio senate race being this close?

Hell no. And I'm shocked. The polls were really off here.

I wonder if Putin is doing a dry run for 2020 in Florida, Ohio, and Michigan? It sure would explain a lot.

Seriously though, I'm kind of having trouble figuring out where Brown ran behind. He seems to be hitting all his benchmarks with stratospheric numbers in Cleveland Toledo, Northeast Ohio in general, plus rocking it in Columbus and Cincy. The best I can tell, tentatively, is that the Republican whose name my voice to text can't recognize overperformed mightily in his congressional district, including Canton Stark County. It's normally a swing County, perhaps a point or so Democratic, but brown ran about four or five points behind his Statewide total.

 He also seems to have run weekly in what would generally be referred to his Ted Strickland's old District. Everything south of Youngstown, which yes I know was technically in Strickland's District, sweeping down through counties along two or three counties deep from the Ohio River through Route 23 in places like Chillicothe in Portsmouth. Brown didn't win a single County outside the People's Republic of Athens in that entire region. Put another way, he didn't win any other County East of Cincy and south of Columbus or Youngstown. Yes, those are largely very rural counties and very trumpy areas, but it includes a number of working class counties with Democratic strength like Ross, sciota, Pike, Monroe, Belmont, Jefferson, Hocking, Etc. The fact Brown didn't win a single one of those counties just demonstrates the Trump ization of Appalachian Ohio.

Otherwise, it looks like the Republican met the goals he needed to in the Suburban counties surrounding Cincy, plus hitting hi benchmarks elsewhere. I'm still surprised though because, if you had told me the numbers that brown was running out of Cleveland, Columbus, since he, Toledo, and Northeast Ohio and general, I would have said he had this race in the bag by a landslide. Just goes to show that now kicking ass and taking names in traditional democratic strongholds are the bare minimum necessary to overcome an increasingly hostile rest of the state.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

It seems like this was a realignment midterm.

2010 might be more of a realignment midterm. And 2016 is the real realignment election.

[I’m not Stu]

Kevin de Leon easily won Lassen County. That is hilarious!

[beesley]

Has Carolyn Bourdeaux won? Wow.

She has.

[GAKas]

MSNBC still says Stacey could throw it to a runoff because of Gwinnett county. Is this true?

[J. J.]

CNN just called FL.   

[Badger]

Democrats retain MA-Gov and VT-Gov

Ah, I see what you did there.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Why hasnt the results of NV come in yet

[Tintrlvr]

Kevin de Leon easily won Lassen County. That is hilarious!

Republicans are clearly voting for de Leon. He's winning the entire Central Valley. I don't think it will be enough, especially given the large undervote, but he is doing much better than I expected.

If de Leon beats Feinstein on the back of Republican votes, I think the top two system is going to be repealed.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

MO finally called. Is anyone else thinking Arizona is gone too?

No. Election day vote in Phoenix and Tucson are barely starting to be counted, whereas at least some rural R areas like Prescott have already reported.

Plus there are 100K+ ballots that won't be counted until more than a week from now in Maricopa county.

Basically it is almost all early vote, where Rs traditionally do better IIRC than election day in AZ.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Has Carolyn Bourdeaux won? Wow.

CNN has her up 52.1-47.9 with 97% in. I'm amazed as well.

I called this one in the Bold Predictions thread a while ago.  Woodall ran a nonexistent campaign (zero TV ads) while Bourdeaux was very visible.  Between that, the changing demographics in Gwinnett, and the Abrams GOTV effort turning out Democrats, this was my top pick for an upset.

[Yank2133]

The sad thing about FL is those old farts will not reap any repercussions since Democrats won the house. It elections like this that sometimes makes me wish R's swept everything so these assholes finally see what they voted for.

[Pericles]

[Panda Express]

The lack of vote counting in AZ is incredibly annoying.

It's going to take days. Arizona always takes several days to count.

[Skye]

Fox projects Scott wins in FL.

[Hammy]

The sad thing about FL is those old farts will not reap any repercussions since Democrats won the house. It elections like this that sometimes makes me wish R's swept everything so these assholes finally see what they voted for.

The problem with that is we'd all suffer just to make a point to the other side.

[I’m not Stu]

Kevin de Leon easily won Lassen County. That is hilarious!

Republicans are clearly voting for de Leon. He's winning the entire Central Valley. I don't think it will be enough, especially given the large undervote, but he is doing much better than I expected.

If de Leon beats Feinstein on the back of Republican votes, I think the top two system is going to be repealed.

No. Californians like the top two. In fact, a poll shows the large majority of those in the state who hate it are Republicans.

[Gass3268]

Wow!

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1060033780340146181

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Bordeaux wins?!

[Yank2133]

The sad thing about FL is those old farts will not reap any repercussions since Democrats won the house. It elections like this that sometimes makes me wish R's swept everything so these assholes finally see what they voted for.

The problem with that is we'd all suffer just to make a point to the other side.

Yeah, which is why I said sometimes.

[Badger]

DAVIS STILL LEADS IN IL-13 WITH 95 IN, CNN RETRACTED THE CALL

We get it. You can stop with the all caps posting now.

[lfromnj]

Besides beto a lot of the media democrats greatly under performed. Abrams, Gillum,Ojeda, etc. Yet some underdogs like Kendra Horn won and Laura Kelly destroyed KKKobach

[Ye We Can]

DAVIS STILL LEADS IN IL-13 WITH 95 IN, CNN RETRACTED THE CALL

We get it. You can stop with the all caps posting now.

NEVER

[Pericles]

I will now accept my accolades.