Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Roblox]

Florida-dumber than Kansas.

Seriously though, I think it replaces North Carolina as the biggest democratic cocktease state.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

LOL, I couldn't care less if Dems "underperform expectations" or not. They won the House. Therefore they won. Enjoy the "optics" circlejerk conservatives, I'll be enjoying killing the Trump/Republican agenda for at least 2 years.

LOL, exactly! The GOP can sit on their hands for the next two years. Their +2 in the Senate or whatever will be real useful when they can't pass a single bill!

Gridlock was expected going into tonight.

Laugh all you want, but it blocks conviction of Impeachment, and it ensures any further justices on SCOTUS, should there be further openings. And it provides building blocks for 2020. The GOP base is right behind Trump. GOP has the last laugh on this.

Impeachment was never going to happen even if the Democrats somehow carried the Senate; the situation re: SCOTUS is concerning, but no different from where we've been since January 2017 —so at the end of the night, flipping the House with only a handful of losses in the Senate is an improvement on the status quo. I'll grant you, the results do demonstrate Trump's 2016 performance was more than a fluke, and Democrats would be foolish to assume 2020 is in the bag.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

A Democrat hasn't held Ok-5th since the 70's ( !! ) -- I'm prepared to say this is a Blue Tsunami in the house.

Which makes the Senate and some of these Governor's races all the stranger.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Williams is underperforming Tester by about 6%, so she'll probably fall just short. But I've been pretty bullish on this race all year, so I'm not giving up yet! I just want to see a giant congressional district be blue on the map once...

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Gwen Graham would have won, and pulled over Nelson. Would have changed the flavor of the whole night.

Yep. The Graham fanboys were right all along. Looks like Gillum dragged down Nelson with him.

Huh

Not sure what is the evidence for that. FL is a state that is naturally hard for Dems to win in a midterm because the GOP base is olds, which votes in midterms. The Dem base in FL is minorities, which usually does not vote in midterms. The only reason it was even close is that Dems had decent turnout of the Dem base.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Florida-dumber than Kansas.

Seriously though, I think it replaces North Carolina as the biggest democratic cocktease state.

I'm starting to think FL is on track to become the Republican Virginia; i.e. a state that is just close enough to invite hope, but ultimately gone for the opposition party.

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1060024362210861056

RIP SN2093

[Roronoa D. Law]

If Democrats are going to invest in Georgia they need to invest in South Carolina. They basically have the same margin and one was completely ignored.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

MJ Hegar is leading Carter!

!!!

Depends on what has and has not reported, it is a quite polarized district, but still !!!

[Ye We Can]

CNN RETRACTED THE CALL IN IL 13

[Beet]

Gwen Graham would have won, and pulled over Nelson. Would have changed the flavor of the whole night.

Yep. The Graham fanboys were right all along. Looks like Gillum dragged down Nelson with him.

Huh

Not sure what is the evidence for that. FL is a state that is naturally hard for Dems to win in a midterm because the GOP base is olds, which votes in midterms. The Dem base in FL is minorities, which usually does not vote in midterms. The only reason it was even close is that Dems had decent turnout of the Dem base.

In the 2006 midterms, Nelson won in a landslide against Katherine Harris. In the 2010 midterms, the Dems nearly won the Governorship in a very unfavorable environment. This year it should have been theirs.

[OBD]

RIP Knute

[NOVA Green]

RIP BUEHLER

Called it days ago... you should have been following my updates.   

Actually downstate Oregon numbers don't really look that bad for Buehler IMHO based upon the first dump....

We'll see what happens with DEM and INDIE swings once we get more votes in.... MultoCo and WashCo looking like it will likely provide a decent firewall....

"Too Early to Call"   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So, Sununu won after all, after all the Kelly hype

[Crumpets]

Democrats just hit 50% in the popular vote. Hardly any of California in.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

89% Kemp is up by 8 in GA.   

Atlanta area always counts last, and that is the case here also. Just look at Fulton and DeKalb.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I think it's worth noting that Brown well underperformed expectations, only winning by about 5% despite routinely being up double digits in polling.

[J. J.]

At 90%, Kemp is up 8.  Only about 8% of Dekalb is out.   

[Storr]

89% Kemp is up by 8 in GA.  

Atlanta area always counts last, and that is the case here also. Just look at Fulton and DeKalb.

This is very true, I just don't think what's left is enough for Abrams to win. Maybe force a runoff, though.

[Crumpets]

Golden just overtook Poliquin in ME-2.

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1060025781601099776

I knew it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

89% Kemp is up by 8 in GA.   

Atlanta area always counts last, and that is the case here also. Just look at Fulton and DeKalb.

There's not enough left in Fulton/DeKalb.  Kemp has this.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

LOL, I couldn't care less if Dems "underperform expectations" or not. They won the House. Therefore they won. Enjoy the "optics" circlejerk conservatives, I'll be enjoying killing the Trump/Republican agenda for at least 2 years.

LOL, exactly! The GOP can sit on their hands for the next two years. Their +2 in the Senate or whatever will be real useful when they can't pass a single bill!

Gridlock was expected going into tonight.

Laugh all you want, but it blocks conviction of Impeachment, and it ensures any further justices on SCOTUS, should there be further openings. And it provides building blocks for 2020. The GOP base is right behind Trump. GOP has the last laugh on this.

It does mean that in the short term. But over the longer term, all it means is that the Senate is an illegitimate legislative institution and that Dems will in the future prioritize reforming it along actual democratic representative lines.

[YE]

Golden just overtook Poliquin in ME-2.

Win that and go 3/4 in Iowa and there's at least some decent results in the WWC.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Gwen Graham would have won, and pulled over Nelson. Would have changed the flavor of the whole night.

Yep. The Graham fanboys were right all along. Looks like Gillum dragged down Nelson with him.

Huh

Not sure what is the evidence for that. FL is a state that is naturally hard for Dems to win in a midterm because the GOP base is olds, which votes in midterms. The Dem base in FL is minorities, which usually does not vote in midterms. The only reason it was even close is that Dems had decent turnout of the Dem base.