Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1
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Author Topic: Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1  (Read 203684 times)
SunSt0rm
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« Reply #825 on: November 06, 2018, 08:28:41 PM »
I can see Nelson pulling ahead again, but Gillum not anymore
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The Free North
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« Reply #826 on: November 06, 2018, 08:28:44 PM »
Dems freaking out about Florida need to wait about 30 minutes and chill out.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #827 on: November 06, 2018, 08:28:44 PM »
Quote from: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 08:25:29 PM
I’m sorry guys, but there is not that much outstanding Dem vote in Florida.

Florida is gone.

How much outstanding vote do you calculate for Broward?
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Harry
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« Reply #828 on: November 06, 2018, 08:29:20 PM »
On the other hand, Beto still leading with >30 in.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #829 on: November 06, 2018, 08:29:53 PM »
Quote from: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 08:26:03 PM
Quote from: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 08:23:27 PM
Guys, outstanding Florida vote is mostly in Broward and Miami-Dade.

It is 91% in and both Scott and DeSantis are increasing their leads. 

CNN says Broward is 51% in. Miami-Dade is 75% in.
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💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
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« Reply #830 on: November 06, 2018, 08:30:02 PM »
For the House: Dems are up big where they need to win and are losing in the palces that would have made a tsunami. They'll still win the House but won't hold a 30 point lead. That's not amazing but not the end of the world
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #831 on: November 06, 2018, 08:30:27 PM »
From 538 liveblog:

You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts.
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No War, but the War on Christmas
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« Reply #832 on: November 06, 2018, 08:30:39 PM »
300+ out in Broward
200+ out in Miami-Dade
80+ out in Hilslborough

I still believe Gillum and Nelson pull it out!
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Crumpets
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« Reply #833 on: November 06, 2018, 08:31:11 PM »
I feel fine watching CNN and reading the NYT, but Nate Silver is freaking me out right now.
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Pericles
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« Reply #834 on: November 06, 2018, 08:31:12 PM »
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #835 on: November 06, 2018, 08:31:19 PM »
Quote from: LabourJersey on November 06, 2018, 08:25:23 PM
I don't get the freakout about the House. All the seats where the most gains are expected aren't in-- NJ, PA, NY, MI, MN, CA etc.

There hasn't been any shocks about the House at this point

Let's wait. It's absolutely not a blue wave or blue wipe-out, but it's still a very close / tight election and i think it's going to be very close. Senate is not looking good though.

EDIT: Some had expected way too much about tonight. That's what's happening.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #836 on: November 06, 2018, 08:31:42 PM »
The 538 model is going to be really noisy because it is not using county level results or differentiating between early vote and election day vote.

NONE OF THE RESULTS SITES ARE ANY GOOD, NOTHING HAS COUNTY RESULTS.
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #837 on: November 06, 2018, 08:32:09 PM »
Keep in mind that the election day vote in Florida is more Republican. So margin in Broward and Miami will narrow if the vote continue
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riceowl
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« Reply #838 on: November 06, 2018, 08:32:12 PM »
Quote from: 2,868,691 on November 06, 2018, 08:29:20 PM
On the other hand, Beto still leading with >30 in.

with no Houston!
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USO2019PB
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« Reply #839 on: November 06, 2018, 08:32:43 PM »
As I expected, Scott is over performing in Florida. Honestly, I think he’s the favorite to win at this point.
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Green Line
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« Reply #840 on: November 06, 2018, 08:32:47 PM »
Marion County (Indianapolis) is over 50% in and Braun still up by 14.  I except a check mark here soon...
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Vespucci
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« Reply #841 on: November 06, 2018, 08:32:55 PM »
Menendez wins, sorry Admiral President
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Woody
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« Reply #842 on: November 06, 2018, 08:32:57 PM »
OMG YES!!! I told you guys this would be a GOP sweep. Just wait when we get to Nevada boys!!!
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OBD
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« Reply #843 on: November 06, 2018, 08:33:21 PM »
I

WANT

NEEDLE
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Nyvin
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« Reply #844 on: November 06, 2018, 08:33:21 PM »
Quote from: Green Line on November 06, 2018, 08:32:47 PM
Marion County (Indianapolis) is over 50% in and Braun still up by 14.  I except a check mark here soon...

Probably...
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Storebought
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« Reply #845 on: November 06, 2018, 08:33:25 PM »
If 90+% of the FL vote is in, and both Rs are leading, then it's time to admit they are both a loss. As well as IN and MO, while we're at it.

Not a good night for the Democrats, even if you haven't hyped yourself up with talk of some wave election.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #846 on: November 06, 2018, 08:33:30 PM »
The House still looks perfectly fine; yes, it's probably not a landslide, but Democrats are making tossups look like tossups and are easily winning the Lean D races.
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beesley
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« Reply #847 on: November 06, 2018, 08:33:44 PM »
Not sure if George Holdingought to be worried...
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💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
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« Reply #848 on: November 06, 2018, 08:33:49 PM »
Brat with a ~3K lead with nearly all outstanding votes in Henrico and Chesterfield. I think Abby is going to pull through. Smiley

2/4 in competitive VA elections isn't amazing but is about in line with expectations. I think it's gone for Luria though.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #849 on: November 06, 2018, 08:34:07 PM »
Quote from: Storebought on November 06, 2018, 08:33:25 PM
If 90+% of the FL vote is in, and both Rs are leading, then it's time to admit they are both a loss. As well as IN and MO, while we're at it.

Not a good night for the Democrats, even if you haven't hyped yourself up for some wave election.

Much of the Democratic vote is still out, but by all means call the race in your head.
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