Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/mj_lee/status/1059854322018725889

The Arlington TX Precinct that didn't have ballots and where a lot of people apparently left was 66% Trump in 2008.

Unacceptable regardless of who it benefits. States need to get their stuff figured iut

[RI]

If I'm Rick Scott, I'm feeling pretty okay with turnout so far. Not confident, but definitely okay. The GOP base is doing what it needs to do.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/mj_lee/status/1059854322018725889

The Arlington TX Precinct that didn't have ballots and where a lot of people apparently left was 66% Trump in 2008.

Unacceptable regardless of who it benefits. States need to get their stuff figured iut

Exactly.  Voting is the cornerstone of our form of government.  Every one with the right to vote should be able to easily cast a ballot, and they all should be counted fairly and accurately.  This seems like a no-brainer.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I remember in 2004 the people on FOX were talking about how Bush just couldn't close to deal on being re-elected. That was at about 5:55.

And in 2004, the exit polls were overly optimistic for Dems and were predicting Kerry would win. But of course, it didn't work out that way when the actual #s came in. So that illustrates both that the coverage is colored by early exit polls, but also that the exit polls can be wrong.

[Gass3268]

Democrats won in Guam!

[J. J.]

I remember in 2004 the people on FOX were talking about how Bush just couldn't close to deal on being re-elected. That was at about 5:55.

And in 2004, the exit polls were overly optimistic for Dems and were predicting Kerry would win. But of course, it didn't work out that way when the actual #s came in. So that illustrates both that the coverage is colored by early exit polls, but also that the exit polls can be wrong.

Same in 2016.   

[The Free North]

Talking heads on MSNBC are sounding pretty optimistic for Dems, FWIW. At some point they do start getting early exit poll numbers and that tends to color their early coverage, but not sure if they have those yet or only in an hour.

But at some point, you can tell roughly how the exit polls (though not necessarily the actual results) are going based on how people on the TV sound in coloring their coverage.

Rachel Maddow could barely control herself in the opening minutes of the 2016 coverage either.

[Woody]

The momentum is in the GOP's favor.

[OBD]

Democrats won in Guam!

was it a pickup

[libertpaulian]

Democrats won in Guam!

was it a pickup

Yes.  The GOP picked up this seat 8 years ago.  Wonder what happened 8 years ago today...

[GeorgiaModerate]

The momentum is in the GOP's favor.

Citation needed.

[libertpaulian]

Well, here we go!  The moment we've all been waiting for.  We've discussed the campaigns.  We've been through the October surprises.  The gaffes.  The debates.  And of course, the speculation about what's happening on the ground during Election Day.

Now it's time to kick back and watch the returns!  Preliminary exit polls should be dropping momentarily.

Discuss!

[Strong Candidate]

Democrats won in Guam!

was it a pickup

Yes, although the D is quite conservative and Guam politics are very parochial and don't necessarily follow national partisan trends.

[Pericles]

I think that we may be able to figure out how the night will go-or at least the big picture outcome-very early. If Braun wins Indiana, Republicans are keeping the Senate. If Cockburn wins VA-05, Democrats are taking the House. Though if she loses that doesn't mean Republicans are keeping it, and if Braun loses that doesn't mean the Senate is going Democrat, it just means these results would make the big picture very obvious.

[Gass3268]

If I'm Rick Scott, I'm feeling pretty okay with turnout so far. Not confident, but definitely okay. The GOP base is doing what it needs to do.

TBF, I think there is stuff on both sides that you could pick out that is positive for both sides. Democrats have slowly improved in the swing counties as the day has gone on and Broward has kept creeping up.

Like we've both said, it's gonna come down to those NPAs.

[Boobs]

Democrats HOLD Guam-At Large.

[The Free North]

1 hour!

[Woody]

I have waited a long time for this moment.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Rachel Maddow could barely control herself in the opening minutes of the 2016 coverage either.

And the early exit polls were good for Dems in 2016. Just not the results. Point is that the mood of talking heads is an indicator of the exits (but not necessarily the results, since exit polls can be and often have been off).

[Virginiá]

FTR this stickied thread was meant to serve as a general purpose election thread for the entire day (I've already merged other threads for the same reason).

Unless there is a mass outpouring of support for separate day/night threads, I'd rather keep everything together so the discussion isn't needlessly fragmented.

[American2020]

Exit Polls

Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 55%

[Oryxslayer]

FTR this stickied thread was meant to serve as a general purpose election thread for the entire day (I've already merged other threads for the same reason).

Unless there is a mass outpouring of support for separate day/night threads, I'd rather keep everything together so the discussion isn't needlessly fragmented.

We will probably need a second and a third thread later, if AL-Sen is any guide. Thats if the forum doesn't crash OFC

[progressive85]

Trump "strongly disapprove" is VERY HIGH in first CNN Exit Polls.

56% say country is on wrong track, 41% say right track.

*preliminary information*

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Democrats HOLD Guam-At Large.

What is the swing from 2014/2016 though?

[American2020]

Strongly disapprove: 47%