Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Yank2133]

Erickson overreacts all the time, but he may be right. The NYT polls also saw a shift to the Democrats of about three points.

[Doimper]

wish me luck tonight, my dudes

[RI]

There are positive signs for both Dems and GOP so far. A total blowout looks quite unlikely. Other than that it's too early to say much.

[Person Man]

There are positive signs for both Dems and GOP so far. A total blowout looks quite unlikely. Other than that it's too early to say much.

Isn't that how it always is?

[GP270watch]

It's not just about growth among POC. Young people in FL are very Democratic

 But they have to vote, also they're not so Democratic that they bother to register as Democrats. Democrats are losing the branding of their party with young people. More of them are registering unaffiliated, NPA, or independent around the country. In Florida, Democrats registrations have been slowing as Dixiecrats make the switch to the GOP or die, and as young and Latino voters register NPA.

I believe having people actually join your party is a key part of making them reliable voters. Because they feel more invested and can help to mold the party with the values and candidates they want.

[The Free North]

An election AND champions league football is on

I might just die of excitement, hold me everyone

[Umengus]

There are positive signs for both Dems and GOP so far. A total blowout looks quite unlikely. Other than that it's too early to say much.

indies will be the key...

[Gass3268]

It's looking like Clark County, NV is going to get close to 70% of total active voters.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1059910777916850177

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Erick Erickson is not exactly pro-Trump, so if he is saying that late polls are not looking good for the GOP it is at least a bit less likely to be expectation setting than if a pro-Trump Republican said so. Still, it could be expectation setting

[Brittain33]

Erick Erickson is not exactly pro-Trump, so if he is saying that late polls are not looking good for the GOP it is at least a bit less likely to be expectation setting than if a pro-Trump Republican said so. Still, it could be expectation setting

I can't read "Republicans may lose the House" as expectations setting because it's an overwhelming likelihood that they will. Optimistic Republicans think it will be by just a few seats.

[Comrade Funk]

Election Day vote totals across Nashville's 35 largest precincts have already surpassed the Election Day turnout at those precincts in the 2016 election.

https://twitter.com/joeygarrison/status/1059905876281188355

[GeorgiaModerate]

An election AND champions league football is on

I might just die of excitement, hold me everyone

College basketball season starts today too!

[Ben.]

Election Day vote totals across Nashville's 35 largest precincts have already surpassed the Election Day turnout at those precincts in the 2016 election.

https://twitter.com/joeygarrison/status/1059905876281188355?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1059905876281188355&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwitter.min.html%231059905876281188355

I might be wrong here, but high turnout in Nashville is good for Bredesen right?

Granted he needs both massive turnout and lopsided margins here and in Shelby to stand any kind of chance.

[Ronnie]

My polling site in CA-37 was decently crowded, but nothing too crazy.  I voted straight D, but I did make some silly write-ins (like Mickey Mouse for county sheriff).  Happy Election Day, everyone!

[GeorgiaModerate]

My polling site in CA-37 was decently crowded, but nothing too crazy.  I voted straight D, but I did make some silly write-ins (like Mickey Mouse for county sheriff).  Happy Election Day, everyone!

Mickey might win if it was CA-46.

[RI]

Bredesen needs crossover support. Turnout may help, but it won't be what wins it for him.

[houseonaboat]

Election Day vote totals across Nashville's 35 largest precincts have already surpassed the Election Day turnout at those precincts in the 2016 election.

https://twitter.com/joeygarrison/status/1059905876281188355

If Taylor Swift carries Phil Bredesen to the Senate, does she become the 2020 Democratic frontrunner by default (Constitutional age requirements be damned)?

[Virginiá]

It's not just about growth among POC. Young people in FL are very Democratic

 But they have to vote, also they're not so Democratic that they bother to register as Democrats. Democrats are losing the branding of their party with young people. More of them are registering unaffiliated, NPA, or independent around the country. In Florida, Democrats registrations have been slowing as Dixiecrats make the switch to the GOP or die, and as young and Latino voters register NPA.

I believe having people actually join your party is a key part of making them reliable voters. Because they feel more invested and can help to mold the party with the values and candidates they want.

Right, but party loyalties tend to be sticky for young adults. If they are voting for one party numerous times and generally align with them ideologically, studies do tend to show that they stay that way for decades even. But even for Millennials, there will be some erosion since they are so incredibly Democratic. Wealthier Millennials may skew more Republican for instance, and they will live longer than poorer Millennials. But I'd bet the farm that Millennials will follow other generations and remain left-leaning even as they are retiring.

For now they don't vote, but Millennials are approaching middle age, and that is generally when people start voting more.

[henster]

Looks like prelim exit poll from WaPo.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/midterm-battleground-districts/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Looks like prelim exit poll from WaPo.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/midterm-battleground-districts/

Isn't this info supposed to be embargoed until 5PM?

[Oryxslayer]

Looks like prelim exit poll from WaPo.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/midterm-battleground-districts/

Isn't this info supposed to be embargoed until 5PM?

Polls close at six...

[OBD]

Looks like prelim exit poll from WaPo.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/midterm-battleground-districts/

Isn't this info supposed to be embargoed until 5PM?

I'm a novice, so what does this even mean?

[henster]

Looks like prelim exit poll from WaPo.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/midterm-battleground-districts/

Isn't this info supposed to be embargoed until 5PM?

Looks like an in house poll by WaPo and not done by the usual people who do exits. The numbers look decent for Dems, top issue healthcare, 56% wrong track.

[RI]

Joe Biden DOMINATING in the Dem primary

[GeorgiaModerate]

Looks like prelim exit poll from WaPo.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/midterm-battleground-districts/

Isn't this info supposed to be embargoed until 5PM?

I'm a novice, so what does this even mean?

Generally, it means that preliminary exit poll data is not supposed to be released to the press until at least 5pm Eastern Time.  But henster pointed out that this isn't the "standard" exit polling, it's something WaPo is doing.