Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059891876046749696

Someone will need to explain why that’s the case - presuming lower turnout in D strongholds is... bad for Rs? What?

First part of the tweet:

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059890710869131264

[Skye]

Lol

https://twitter.com/BobMenendezNJ/status/1059873727561768960

I mean, it's not like it matters now...

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059891876046749696

Someone will need to explain why that’s the case - presuming lower turnout in D strongholds is... bad for Rs? What?

First part of the tweet:

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059890710869131264

I want to clarify this...does he mean that turnout currently is that percentage at that hour compared to the total percentage in 2010?

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059891876046749696

Someone will need to explain why that’s the case - presuming lower turnout in D strongholds is... bad for Rs? What?

First part of the tweet:

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059890710869131264

I want to clarify this...does he mean that turnout currently is that percentage at that hour compared to the total percentage in 2010?

I think it's being compared to the total turnout in 2010.

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059891876046749696

Someone will need to explain why that’s the case - presuming lower turnout in D strongholds is... bad for Rs? What?

First part of the tweet:

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059890710869131264

I want to clarify this...does he mean that turnout currently is that percentage at that hour compared to the total percentage in 2010?

^^^ good question

[Virginiá]

Guys if you can, please try to avoid huge quote chains with the same tweets embedded over and over again. Especially today.

[Yank2133]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059891876046749696

Someone will need to explain why that’s the case - presuming lower turnout in D strongholds is... bad for Rs? What?

First part of the tweet:

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059890710869131264

I want to clarify this...does he mean that turnout currently is that percentage at that hour compared to the total percentage in 2010?

I think it's being compared to the total turnout in 2010.

Yes total, like Lakeland has already passed, Cleveland and Cleveland Heights are close.

[Technocracy Timmy]

https://twitter.com/JudyReardon/status/1059795593088942080

MT Treasurer is jumping in joy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Maybe we should get the people who run the voting for American Idol and similar shows to handle our elections.

[Oryxslayer]

Maybe we should get the people who run the voting for American Idol and similar shows to handle our elections.

I don't want my elections to be rigged.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Maybe we should get the people who run the voting for American Idol and similar shows to handle our elections.

I don't want my elections to be rigged.

Too late for that.

[Mr. Morden]

A reminder about the timing of the exit polls: The Edison Research exit poll, which is what most of the networks use, is being conducted right now, and at 5pm Eastern (just under 2 hours from now), Edison will be sharing their preliminary results with the networks.  So then, starting at around 5:10 or 5:15pm or so, we'll start to see various news stories pop up along the lines of X% of the electorate is whites with a college degree, or Y% approve of Trump's performance as president, or whatever.  But they will not release the full toplines of the exit poll for individual races until the polls start closing.

The wrinkle this year is that both Fox News and the AP have split off to do their own thing.  They will not be using Edison, but are instead going with a new system called VoteCast, that's mostly based on online and phone polling.  Details here:

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/11/6/18067982/exit-polls-results-start-2018-midterm-elections

I don't know when we'll start to get VoteCast numbers.

[Gass3268]

I think I saw that they are going to start doing phone interviews so they can capture early voters.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

TargetSmart's data says that the Hispanic share of the electorate has increased since 2014, which is not surprising as the Hispanic share of the population overall has increased since 2014. What I'm saying is that relative to 2016, there has been a larger drop-off in turnout in Hispanic precincts than white precincts (at least in Clark and Cuyahoga). Both are possible if there are more total Hispanics, but the rate at which any individual Hispanic turns out to vote is down.

Hispanic share of the NV Early Vote in TargetSmart data is up from 5.98% in 2014 to 9.78% in 2018. It is true that there is natural population increase, but that is a much larger increase in NV than can be explained just by pure demographic change. It is a reflection both of how terrible turnout was in 2014, and also that it is much better now.

Whereas in the Ohio EV, there is a much smaller increase in Hispanic vote share, more in line with natural population growth (just a small fraction of a %, like .2% or something).

[henster]

Not liking the FL #'s, think we are starting to see a state that is definitely leaning toward Rs in the near future.

[Gass3268]

Not sure if this is expectation setting

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1059898944157814786

[Gass3268]

Not liking the FL #'s, think we are starting to see a state that is definitely leaning toward Rs in the near future.

The Republican % continues to go down, while the Dem and NPA % slowly goes up. This is all without seeing Miami-Dade, Orange and Palm Beach.

[Mr. Morden]

I think I saw that they are going to start doing phone interviews so they can capture early voters.

That's been a part of the exit polls for probably something like a decade now, at least in states where early voting is common.  Once early voting started to become a commonplace thing, they had to start supplementing the Election Day interviews with phone calls.  I don't know the timing of when the calls are made though.  Presumably they've been made throughout the last few days.

[GP270watch]

Not liking the FL #'s, think we are starting to see a state that is definitely leaning toward Rs in the near future.

 Until Latinos(besides Cubans) develop a culture of voting this will be the case. The white voting population in Florida replenishes itself with retirees and so even demographic shift to the electorate being younger and more non-white doesn't matter, if they don't vote and the old retirees vote like crazy.

 But Republicans also can't help themselves and I believe that if they win tonight they will makes changes to social safety net programs that will certainly cause a voter backlash even among older whites.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Turnout in parts of Cobb County GA (Atlanta suburbs) running above presidential levels, per the AJC live updates.

[Gass3268]

Again, might be expectation setting:

https://twitter.com/EWErickson/status/1059862293687816193

[Brittain33]

Again, might be expectation setting:

https://twitter.com/EWErickson/status/1059862293687816193

This sounds accurate to me, we all saw it and reaction from Republicans was in the news.

[DrScholl]

The polling shift was quite sharp in the last stretch and close enough where it would stick. I think we are in for some surprises tonight.

[Virginiá]

Not liking the FL #'s, think we are starting to see a state that is definitely leaning toward Rs in the near future.

 Until Latinos(besides Cubans) develop a culture of voting this will be the case. The white voting population in Florida replenishes itself with retirees and so even demographic shift to the electorate being younger and more non-white doesn't matter, if they don't vote and the old retirees vote like crazy.

 But Republicans also can't help themselves and I believe that if they win tonight they will makes changes to social safety net programs that will certainly cause a voter backlash even among older whites.

It's not just about growth among POC. Young people in FL are very Democratic and eventually the retirees moving here won't be as Republican-leaning either, although that change is probably decades away from happening.

All 3 of these trends converging at some point in the future will be a problem for the RPOF.