Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is it possible McSally could concede anytime soon?

I doubt she will concede.   It's still mathematically possible for her to win.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why does it take Arizona and California so long to count their votes?  I can understand why some mail ballots don't arrive until after the election, but for the most part that doesn't seem to be the case here.
If the ballots are already in, why don't they just count them on election night like everyone else?

At least in Arizona's case: for mail ballots they have to match the signatures on every one of hundreds of thousands of ballots, which is a huge undertaking.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Remember back when some Republicans here thought McSally was the only one of the GOP primary trio who would defeat Sinema?

She certainly had the best chance of the three.  Sinema would have obliterated either of the others, but McSally came very close.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1061824499270778880

[GeorgiaModerate]

Dave Brat was apparently caught on tape saying "[Republicans in the House] lie all the time."

In other news, the sun comes up in the east.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1062051274919567360

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1061827659376713729

[GeorgiaModerate]

The ME-2 results seem stuck at 95% with Poloquin about 2K votes ahead, what percentage do you think Golden needs with the Indies to overtake him in RCV?

Caveat: this is a gross oversimplification!

The current results are:

Poliquin   131466
Golden   129566
Bond   16500
Hoar   6933

Total 284465

A majority is 142233, so Golden would need 12667 to reach that number.  Bond and Hoar together have 23433, so if ALL of their voters put alternative choices (which may not be the case), Golden would need to be ahead of Poliquin on just over 54% of them.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1062133529654394882

[GeorgiaModerate]

McSally has conceded:

https://twitter.com/MarthaMcSally/status/1062144676822577152

 

McSally deserves some credit for losing graciously and not drinking the Republican voter fraud Kool-Aid.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is it true Kyl is only serving till the end of this year? If so,  McSally could be in the senate after all.

I'd bet on it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1062370498129092608

In the unlikely event Poliquin prevails, this would open the door to doing away with Georgia's runoff, at least for federal elections.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pretty funny that in AZ, the Green Party candidate is named Angela Green ... and she‘s black.

What's significant about her being black? It would be weird if she were green-skinned, but the odds are very high she'd have been white if she weren't African-American, and what's interesting about that? Lots of Americans have last names which are colors: Green(e), Brown, Black, and White are common.

I think he means that it's that it's very uncommon to see non-whites in far-left movements like the Greens.

The thing is, that may be a stereotype, but it's not true.

I mean, also, Jill Stein isn't full of beer, but that's not that interesting.

And neither is Idaho's governor an otter.  We won't even discuss their senior Senator...

[GeorgiaModerate]

In the first round of voting in LA-SEN 2014, Mary Landrieu got more votes than Bill Cassidy, fair and square. And yet, she's not a Senator anymore. I wonder why Poliquin isn't complaining about that...

Jon Ossoff would also like a word.

[GeorgiaModerate]

In the first round of voting in LA-SEN 2014, Mary Landrieu got more votes than Bill Cassidy, fair and square. And yet, she's not a Senator anymore. I wonder why Poliquin isn't complaining about that...

You're mixing up apples with oranges here. Cassidy beat Landrieu fair and square in a Runoff. Meanwhile in Maine a Computer decides the Race. How weird! Maine has no Runoff.

No, it's the same thing. If a non FPTP system isn't allowed, then runoffs shouldn't be allowed either. So Cassidy should be kicked out and Landrieu should take her rightful Senate seat.

I have this joker on ignore, so maybe you should ask him what the flying fyck he means when he says that a computer will decide the race.

I have him on ignore too (I took everyone off ignore for Election Night, but it didn't take long for him to get back on) but his arguments in the quotes are laughable.  RCV is just an efficient way of implementing a runoff; in fact, an alternative name for it is "Instant Runoff Voting".

[GeorgiaModerate]

In the first round of voting in LA-SEN 2014, Mary Landrieu got more votes than Bill Cassidy, fair and square. And yet, she's not a Senator anymore. I wonder why Poliquin isn't complaining about that...

You're mixing up apples with oranges here. Cassidy beat Landrieu fair and square in a Runoff. Meanwhile in Maine a Computer decides the Race. How weird! Maine has no Runoff.

A computer decides almost every race nowadays.   It's just a matter of how the computer goes about doing that.

Plus, it's not the computer "deciding".  The voters are deciding; in this case, the voters for candidates that didn't finish in the top two have the ability to express their next choice(s) -- which is exactly the same thing that a post-election runoff does. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1062741650689196032

[GeorgiaModerate]

Starting to think Nate McMurray may win NY-27. He's winning absentees OUTSIDE OF ERIE AND NIAGARA with 60%, which is more than what he needs to close that margin. I especially think Erie and Niagara are friendlier.

Where is the updated count available? I had written this one off.

Wasserman has Collins up 132,402 to 129,594, but I'm not sure how current this is.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1062685440791244800