Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Holmes]

No paywall for NYT today, yes.

[RINO Tom]

Happy Election Day!  Heading to the polls after work.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It is inspiring seeing how voters are risking their lives all over the East Coast, braving the dihydrogen monoxide to vote. Mandela level stuff.

[OBD]

No paywall for NYT today, yes.

Yeet

[Comrade Funk]

It is inspiring seeing how voters are risking their lives all over the East Coast, braving the dihydrogen monoxide to vote. Mandela level stuff.

My shirt got wet

[Tintrlvr]

Light turnout here in CA-25.  This is a very democratic area in Lancaster but Democrats don't vote. Katie Hill will need to win Santa Clarita and keep it close in Simi Valley to pull an upset. If she doesn't, Steve Knight wins. I can only report about the turnout here in Lancaster but I did noticed Democrats being competitive in Santa Clarita from talking to friends.

I'm not sure how much you can gain from this considering how much of California is now VBM.

Right; I'd expect on-the-day turnout to seem really low everywhere in California compared to historical patterns for people used to voting in person.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It is inspiring seeing how voters are risking their lives all over the East Coast, braving the dihydrogen monoxide to vote. Mandela level stuff.

My shirt got wet

FF. Thank you for your sacrifice.

[DrScholl]

It is inspiring seeing how voters are risking their lives all over the East Coast, braving the dihydrogen monoxide to vote. Mandela level stuff.

My shirt got wet

Oh noes.

[RI]

Election Day vote so far:

Brevard: 48.2 R - 29.0 D
Duval: 45.4 R - 37.3 D
Pasco: 47.8 R - 28.5 D
Pinellas: 41.8 R - 33.5 D

Pinellas is the only county I could find past data for. In 2016, the final ED distribution was 38.9 R - 32.6 D. If the Dems do better after work hours, the R share might be pretty similar to 2016, while the D share will likely be somewhat higher than 2016 (unless the surge comes from D-voting Indies, in which case we might see close to the same shares as 2016).

Pinellas ED vote is currently at 40% of 2016's ED vote.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Rstubenrauch/status/1059848633691049988

[RI]

This spreadsheet is tracking FL better than I can: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13UdXilkzGqvvdKBN9Vwe8er64JeycQbLxKGxFy9lTlE/htmlview?sle=true#gid=10992779

Rs are currently running ahead of 2016 in R and swing counties, Ds in most (but not all) D counties.

[Alabama_Indy10]

I voted about 30 minutes ago was #114. Turnout is looking good in my small precinct.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Parents just voted in Morris County. Dad went straight Republican, Mom went straight Republican as well except for the House, where she voted for Sherrill. They said turnout was pretty light, but it was the middle of the day in a heavily commuter area, so I’d imagine it was heavier earlier in the day and will get busier later.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

No paywall for NYT today, yes.

Best thing I’ve read in this thread.

[Tender Branson]

It is 6:30pm here in Austria right now and time for me to go to sleep.

Then I will get up at 1am when the first polls close and stay up the whole night.

Anyway, todays CO ballot return update:

[bilaps]

it's at midnight when first polls close if you're in Austria. 6pm eastern.

[J. J.]

Heavy rain in NJ. Will it affect turnout?

The rain is supposed to be over by 2-3 so it’s only during the lowest-turnout part of the day anyway.

Plenty of studies have shown rain only has a miniscule effect on voting, and even smaller effect on partisanship. The times when rain does matter are those where the election doesn't matter, and we already can assume the result.

It depends where it is raining.  Great weather in a Democratic area and bad weather in a Republican area can easily effect the vote.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

decently high turnout here this morning despite pretty severe rain. My town has a population of about 5,100 and I saw about 20-30 people there early this morning which is pretty good tbh

[Tender Branson]

it's at midnight when first polls close if you're in Austria. 6pm eastern.

Only portions of IN and KY close at midnight.

Waking up at 1am is better, because some precincts are already counted then.

[J. J.]

Pinellas's site is pretty great for seeing turnout by party live:

Mail vote: R +3,503 (1.5% margin)
Early vote: D +5,325 (9.7%)
Election Day so far: R +4,985 (8.5%)

Overall: R +3,163 (0.9%)

The final raw margin in 2016 was about R +10,000 between all three types.

Sounds like solid numbers for the GOP, and the day isn't over yet. I wonder what 2016/2104 numbers were at this point of the day.

I might be wrong, but isn't there typically a surge for democrats after 4 pm when people comes back from work?

There are generally two periods of heavy voting, in the morning before 9:00 AM and after 4:00 PM.   The before 9 crowd are also workers. 

[SCNCmod]

Wins by Claire McCaskill & Joe Donnelly would almost make up for the disappointment from 2016.  Wins by Claire, Joe, Bredesen, and Beto ... would definitely make up for the disappointment from 2016.

[Tender Branson]

Good Night !

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/samcdonell/status/1059864574021771265

[RI]

Good news for the Dems in FL is that Panhandle turnout is quite low so far, especially in the most hurricane-damaged counties.

[GP270watch]

Good news for the Dems in FL is that Panhandle turnout is quite low so far, especially in the most hurricane-damaged counties.

That's a shame. I'm a Democrat and I want everyone to vote, win or lose.