Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Gass3268]

Does anyone else think that Mitt Romney's win in Utah was a little underwhelming? Barley getting 60% and losing two counties he won when he ran in 2012, plus maybe an outside shot of losing Salt Lake County.

[Gass3268]

Democratic Super Lawyer is getting involved in Florida. Looks like he'll have an announcement of some sorts tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1060347112213360640

[Gass3268]

I love that save Hurd's district (which could still flip to Ortiz Jones), every single congressional district on the border is represented by Dems.

Build that wall!

[Gass3268]

Anyone else think it's funny that with all the fools in here cheering or whining thinking Tester was going to lose and he's going to end up with the biggest victory of his career.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/KING5Seattle/status/1060366315066613760

[Gass3268]

The gap still looks a bit too wide for Nelson, but if there are a lot more votes to be counted, he may actually have a chance. I'd want to see how much is actually left out, and where it is.

Anyway, I'm happy to see that more posters are joining the "NV is not a Toss-Up" club.

Nelson is probably going to get to a hand count recount. He needs the margin to get below .25%. Harder to see that happen with the Governors race.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1060525302915440646?s=21

He also said that TX-23 is Likely R.

[Gass3268]

Why toss-up in NJ-03?

Otherwise I agree. But what about GA-07?

I think I saw somewhere that there might be some votes left, not sure.

[Gass3268]

Democrats could win the Ag Commission job in Florida. Only down .06%.

[Gass3268]

Still 20,000 absentee votes left to count in GA-07:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1060547052877299713

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1060540221077549056

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1060555674457907200

Democrats are also making a massive push to get people to check that their VBM were accurately counted. Plus I think there are votes left in Duval and Palm Beach.

I think the Ag Com race flips and the Senate race is going to get really close.

[Gass3268]

Also, Rick Scott's campaign sounds nervous:

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Not exactly sounding confident.

[Gass3268]

About 10,000 votes left in Palm Beach County:

https://twitter.com/alivitali/status/1060573313062367233

[Gass3268]

Unless there is a huge error in the estimates of how much vote is left, Scott has won

Yes this.

Seriously, I don't want to be a d*** but I don't believe Nelson is going to win this.

They thing is we don't know how many votes there are left, if we did I might agree with you. As of right now we know there are at least ~33,000 votes in very Democratic areas. It's possible, if not probable, that there is more out there. Plus you have provisionals.

[Gass3268]

The AZ and FL GOPs sound... nervous.

Arizona GOP might have a reason to be

Florida on the other hand... I don’t get it

They went from being 100% sure that Scott had it to... at the very least, less than 100%, even if it's 98-99%. Even if Nelson needs a miracle to win, the fact that it's gone from being over to not quite being over definitely warrants Republicans at least being nervous. They seem much more nervous in Arizona, though, which makes sense.

I think they really want to avoid a hand recount in Florida, because anything can happen at that point.

[Gass3268]

Democrat took the lead in the Agricultural Commissioner race:

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1060609182544642048

[Gass3268]

Democrat took the lead in the Agricultural Commissioner race:

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1060609182544642048

Looks like we’ll at least have 1 statewide office holder in the sunshine state.

How does an unknown Ag Commissioner candidate beat out two high profile races with well-known candidates?!

I'm gonna take a shot in the dark and say she did ever so slightly better with the DINOS in the panhandle.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1060615070890086400

[Gass3268]

Nelson's camp seems more optimistic now than they were yesterday about the gap narrowing. Now that they've entered into a hand recount it's an entire new ballpark in regards to under voting and provisionals.

They think that 30K undercount is due to a machine error and not ballot design.

[Gass3268]

Nelson's camp seems more optimistic now than they were yesterday about the gap narrowing. Now that they've entered into a hand recount it's an entire new ballpark in regards to under voting and provisionals.

They think that 23K undercount is due to a machine error and not ballot design.

A 23k undercount would singlehandedly flip this whole thing, particularly in that this whole situation shouldn't have happened in the first place.

Sorry, it's 30K

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1060615875194245122

[Gass3268]

Rubio is starting to get whiney on Twitter.

[Gass3268]

Anyone have a rough estimate of how many votes are out still in Broward County? Enough to close the gap prior to recount or unlikely?

We don't know, and Broward County's head of elections has said publicly (yesterday, I think) that she also doesn't know (indicative of the level of extreme incompetence in her office). Ignoring the undervote debacle, there would need to be around 45,000 votes left just in Broward for Nelson to tie, although we know there are some uncounted in Palm Beach also, so he might be able to get by with 35,000 in Broward and 12,000 in Palm Beach, e.g. Those numbers don't seem unrealistic at all (e.g., they would leave Broward and Palm Beach with turnout numbers around average for statewide while right now Broward is somewhat below average and Palm Beach in the range of average), but who knows.

And that is before provisionals, which are mostly uncounted except in a few rural counties, though Nelson should not expect to gain more than around 2,000 net votes from provisionals statewide.

Jeb Bush appointee, please clap.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/meganmesserly/status/1060620635947261952?s=21

My SD going to recount for a supermajority.

Has there been any talk of repealing Right to Work in Nevada as a gift to the Culinary Union?

[Gass3268]

Number to remember on Florida:

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/1060670488639348739

[Gass3268]

Here is a thought, AZ State Senate and AZ state house last night were both two seats short of Dem takeovers. Where does that stand?

Where there any close seats?