Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is probably a good time to recall this (in)famous Senate recount controversy: https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/minute/Closest_election_in_Senate_history.htm.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1060664398862303232

This is where we are right now in the senate expectations game.

Rick Scott thinks that an accurate count is stealing the election.  If nothing else, he certainly fits right in with Florida politics.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Serious question and I want serious answers. How likely is it that this will reach the supreme court?

It's impossible to tell at this point.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So assuming Sinema holds on, the Senate will end up R+1 or R+2 depending on Florida (which I refuse to make any predictions on at this point).  I expect that most Democrats would have taken that along with D+~35 in the House if it was offered to them a week ago!

[GeorgiaModerate]

McSally underperforming in a big way in the Pinal ballots that just dumped.

Does anyone else think Pinal and Pima sound too alike?

Me.  I thought Pinal was a typo the first time I saw it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

These are pro-Sinema ballots, but this race is on a knife's edge which is very good news for Democrats anyway. A true toss-up.

What is the final result in the House? How many seats Dem got in the end?

The final tally isn't determined yet, and may not be for some time due to California's slow counting of mail ballots.  538 is currently estimating D+37, or a split of 232-203.  They're also keeping a running status of the uncalled races at https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-16-races-still-too-close-to-call/.

[GeorgiaModerate]

No idea what the other guy is smoking, but updated CA-39 results

Kim - 78,677 (51.27%) +466
Cisneros - 74,893 (48.74%) +463

Kim increased her lead by 3 votes with tonight’s batch.

Yeah, uh, I think Interlocutor found an extra 2K for Cisneros somewhere.

Send him to Florida.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1060704220624629760

[GeorgiaModerate]

The next batch is supposed to favor McSally, it was R+10 and the final batch benefiting Sinema.

So, it's likely Sinema ekes it out?

It looks better for her, yeah.  (Insert usual platitudes about it ain't over until all the votes are counted.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The next batch is supposed to favor McSally, it was R+10 and the final batch benefiting Sinema.

How do we know its R+10?

R+10 in registration ID, which of course doesn't mean they necessarily voted that way.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If Democrats manage to take the Arizona senate seat and all of the outstanding California congressional districts...then I would say they had a very good midterm overall.  It certainly wasn't perfect and I probably wouldn't even call it a wave, but I would still be happy with the results.

I would definitely feel better. I would consider it a splash or a ripple. But even if I end up feeling that way, remembering Florida will happen and make me feel s****y again. That is, unless Nelson pulls off a miracle. As for the Governor's race, f*** Andrew Gillum. I don't think I even want him to be Governor anymore. It's not like I have to live in Florida. They deserve to live with another one of their mistakes for the next four years. Scott winning though, does affect me and the rest of the country, and it is driving me bonkers! It's like Scott is casting a cruciatus curse on me!

Dems only losing a seat or two in an extremely stacked Senate map, gaining 35-40 seats in an extremely gerrymandered House map, and gaining 7 governors is not a "ripple", lol. It's a wave.

My condition is basically Florida senate to be called a wave. Ik its a small margin but there is no reason a swing state senator should have lost in a wave.

Maybe the characterization of Florida as a swing state is becoming less valid.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What happened to the 30K undervote in Broward?

It's based on a hypothetical but plausible theory of a machine error.  There's another plausible theory that the layout of the ballot may explain most or all of the undervote, i.e. voters overlooked the Senate race.  As I see it:

1. The race is now close enough that it will go to a hand recount.

2. The hand recount will determine if there really was a machine error.

3. If there was no machine error, Scott has it.

4. If there was a machine error, the result is up in the air.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1060720956123955201

Can't wait until Trump hears about this.

[GeorgiaModerate]

35+ seats in the house
At least a 7% popular vote victory
Net loss in senate of 2, maybe even 1 depending on Florida despite the worst possible map
7 governors mansions gained
This is a wave my friends

As soon as the words "net loss" appear, the "wave" argument becomes problematic. 

Normally, the party that doesn't control the presidency loses. This is within the normal range. It is not as strong as the shifts in 1994, 2010, both in terms gains and total numbers of seats.  The gain was a bit better than 2006, by one seat, but the total seats are much lower; in that one the winning party gained 6 Senate seats. 

I'm still of the view that it wasn't a blue wave, but something else altogether that doesn't have a pre-determined term.

What do you make of people claiming it was a red wave?

They're idiots?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'd say there's a 90 percent chance Scott will win. The margin is just too large.

Yeah, we're looking at 90% Scott victory and 90% Sinema victory

90% Sinema victory. AZ looks pretty much over.

75-80% Scott. The critical issue to be resolved is the undervotes. I'm not convinced it's ballot design.

This is about where I am, too.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If McSally loses, is Ducey going to appoint her to the other seat?

He already appointed Jon Kyl a couple months ago.

It's been speculated that Kyl might resign after the end of the year, though.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So is there a good chance for Nelson?

No, it's a long shot (but not a no shot, at least not yet).

[GeorgiaModerate]

   Don't know if this has already been mentioned, but whats the conventional wisdom on the Maine congressional elections, and the impact of Australian style ranked choice voting.  Did it help the independent candidates get more votes because their supporters knew they could still vote for a Dem or GOP candidate as well?

I've seen it suggested that it would indeed help the independent candidates for the reason you mentioned.   In the actual results, Bond got 5.8% and Hoar 2.4%.  Those seem like pretty good numbers, although Maine has a history of independents doing well, so who knows if these are really that much better than they would have been without RCV.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/jerryiannelli/status/1061042273813778434

This is a farce

If this was a novel, it would have been rejected by the editors as too ridiculous to be believable.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1061128798924611584

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ugh, MN-01 hurts. It seems there were dozens of races that were so close, within 1%.

According to Wasserman's current data, there are 8:

GA-06 D+0.9
GA-07 R+0.3
ME-02 R+0.7 (before RCV)
MN-01 R+0.5
NY-22 D+0.6
NY-27 R+1.0
NC-09 R+0.7
TX-23 R+0.6

Plus some of the close California races may move into this range when they're done counting.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1061296656526860289

[GeorgiaModerate]

I unignored everyone for Election Night, but I have a feeling it's time to start a new list.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1061393280322232321
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1061394151265198083

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1061432753248448512

When will Rohrabacher be recalled to Moscow?