Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Comrade Funk]

Would help if those reporting personal impression would indicate where they voted.

Pretty damn long lines at 7:30am in PA-01.

[Pandaguineapig]

Pretty high turnout in Monroe County Indiana where I voted, it looks like turnout is way up across the entire state

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Good news for Braun from the reports I've seen. Monitoring Wisconsin turnout on Twitter as well, but no real forecasts either way.

[libertpaulian]

Good news for Braun from the reports I've seen. Monitoring Wisconsin turnout on Twitter as well, but no real forecasts either way.

What "reports" are you speaking of?

[Virginiá]

There isn't really anything wrong with that post.

That being said, I'm not in the mood for you today hofoid, so if you start anything, I'm just going to mute you for 24 hours and be done with it. So go ahead, test me.

[Pandaguineapig]

I think the one prediction we can all make in confidence is that this election will set modern records for mid-term turnout

[Hindsight was 2020]

This thread is going to be awful

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think the one prediction we can all make in confidence is that this election will set modern records for mid-term turnout

That's probably true.  It's funny...in the long run, the greatest result of the Trump administration may turn out to be increased engagement in the political process by the American people, especially young people.

[J. J.]

9:30 AM-Phila 11th ward

I was number 38.

I generally vote later about 1:30 PM. In a presidential year, we'd get 100-120 by that point.

My guess is that if will normal or slightly below normal for a midterm.  If there were a strong Republican statewide candidate, I'd be very happy. 

[RI]

Pinellas's site is pretty great for seeing turnout by party live:

Mail vote: R +3,503 (1.5% margin)
Early vote: D +5,325 (9.7%)
Election Day so far: R +4,985 (8.5%)

Overall: R +3,163 (0.9%)

The final raw margin in 2016 was about R +10,000 between all three types.

[Pollster]

Voted very early this morning for Menendez and Bonnie Watson Coleman in my suburban NJ precinct. Was voter number 42.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Pinellas's site is pretty great for seeing turnout by party live:

Mail vote: R +3,503 (1.5% margin)
Early vote: D +5,325 (9.7%)
Election Day so far: R +4,985 (8.5%)

Overall: R +3,163 (0.9%)

The final raw margin in 2016 was about R +10,000 between all three types.

Sounds like solid numbers for the GOP, and the day isn't over yet. I wonder what 2016/2104 numbers were at this point of the day.

[JG]

Pinellas's site is pretty great for seeing turnout by party live:

Mail vote: R +3,503 (1.5% margin)
Early vote: D +5,325 (9.7%)
Election Day so far: R +4,985 (8.5%)

Overall: R +3,163 (0.9%)

The final raw margin in 2016 was about R +10,000 between all three types.

Sounds like solid numbers for the GOP, and the day isn't over yet. I wonder what 2016/2104 numbers were at this point of the day.

I might be wrong, but isn't there typically a surge for democrats after 4 pm when people comes back from work?

[they don't love you like i love you]

I voted. Very high turnout in Minneapolis. Had a line, albeit not a very long one for the first time ever in a midterm for me...didn't even in 2016. Voter #457 at 10:27am.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I voted around 7 AM ET here in Brooklyn, NY. My polling place was crowded.

[ucscgaldamez1]

Light turnout here in CA-25.  This is a very democratic area in Lancaster but Democrats don't vote. Katie Hill will need to win Santa Clarita and keep it close in Simi Valley to pull an upset. If she doesn't, Steve Knight wins. I can only report about the turnout here in Lancaster but I did noticed Democrats being competitive in Santa Clarita from talking to friends.

[Ebsy]

I might be wrong, but isn't there typically a surge for democrats after 4 pm when people comes back from work?

Yes.

[Ebsy]

Media reports indicate that turnout is extremely high for a midterm in St. Louis, Kansas City and Springfield.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Media reports indicate that turnout is extremely high for a midterm in St. Louis, Kansas City and Springfield.

Music to Claire’s ear

[GP270watch]

Pinellas's site is pretty great for seeing turnout by party live:

Mail vote: R +3,503 (1.5% margin)
Early vote: D +5,325 (9.7%)
Election Day so far: R +4,985 (8.5%)

Overall: R +3,163 (0.9%)

The final raw margin in 2016 was about R +10,000 between all three types.

 Republicans tend to "win" election day by party ID. And they also vote earlier in the morning and you see more Democrats later in the day, usually after work.

[Gass3268]

Pinellas's site is pretty great for seeing turnout by party live:

Mail vote: R +3,503 (1.5% margin)
Early vote: D +5,325 (9.7%)
Election Day so far: R +4,985 (8.5%)

Overall: R +3,163 (0.9%)

The final raw margin in 2016 was about R +10,000 between all three types.

 Republicans tend to "win" election day by party ID. And they also vote earlier in the morning and you see more Democrats later in the day, usually after work.

Exactly, also Democrats need to win NPA's in order to win.

[Gass3268]

Light turnout here in CA-25.  This is a very democratic area in Lancaster but Democrats don't vote. Katie Hill will need to win Santa Clarita and keep it close in Simi Valley to pull an upset. If she doesn't, Steve Knight wins. I can only report about the turnout here in Lancaster but I did noticed Democrats being competitive in Santa Clarita from talking to friends.

I'm not sure how much you can gain from this considering how much of California is now VBM.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

NYTimes now considers their individual state result pages an "article" and put up a paywall. The f**k.

[RI]

NYTimes now considers their individual state result pages an "article" and put up a paywall. The f**k.

Yeah, they did the same with their poll result pages. It sucks.

[Gass3268]

NYTimes now considers their individual state result pages an "article" and put up a paywall. The f**k.

Yeah, they did the same with their poll result pages. It sucks.

I thought I saw on twitter they are dropping their paywall for tonight.