Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Gass3268]

I hate admitting this is my source but people on predictit are saying Scott murdered in the panhandle. Anyone hear anything like that?

He probably did, but turnout there also isn't as strong so far as other counties.

[Gass3268]

Goal posts are being moved:

https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1059913786591731712

[Gass3268]

The Freiwal keeps growing in Clark County!

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1059925165751103489

[Gass3268]

Republicans are winning the day in Washoe, but are still about 2 points away from what they got on election day in 2016:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1059925739401895942

[Gass3268]

Democrats won in Guam!

[Gass3268]

If I'm Rick Scott, I'm feeling pretty okay with turnout so far. Not confident, but definitely okay. The GOP base is doing what it needs to do.

TBF, I think there is stuff on both sides that you could pick out that is positive for both sides. Democrats have slowly improved in the swing counties as the day has gone on and Broward has kept creeping up.

Like we've both said, it's gonna come down to those NPAs.

[Gass3268]

Governor Race in Wisconsin is extremely close, 96% of Milwaukee reported  

The WOW counties are also all in. Looks like most of the remaining votes are in the Driftless, although Dane has some left, as do some of the small, Walker-favorable cities in the east. Given how close it is, tiny, heavily D Menominee could also make the difference when it finally decides to drop.

The entire City of Green Bay is still out. Most of La Crosse County is still out. Most of Portage County/City of Stevens Point is out. The 3 counties, minus Menomiee County concern me, however.

[Gass3268]

Wow!

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1060033780340146181

[Gass3268]

RIP Heller

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1060057306237288448

[Gass3268]

If CNN is undercounting MT percents, then Tester likely wins.

New York Times gives Tester an 83% chance of winning.

[Gass3268]

I think that Democrats will keep MN-01. Mower County is 100% out. Trump won it in 2016, but he only got 49%. Waltz and the rest of the ticket will probably win here and Feehan is only down 566 votes.

[Gass3268]

Holy crap, the Texas gerrymander almost collapsed.

[Gass3268]

So what were the best and worst gerrymanders this cycle

Best- North Carolina- Absolutely Brutal and dems failed to pick up 1.


Worst- I might have to go with Texas which almost completely collapsed under Beto Mania.

That's what extreme gerrymandering will get you!
But, don't count NC-09 out. 97% reporting with less than a 2,000 vote difference.

Luckily the Democrats cemented their control of the NCSC and broke the supermajorities in the legislature. These maps should be going down soon.

[Gass3268]

People shouldn't really be commenting on the California races. There are still millions of votes that will take past Thanksgiving to count.

[Gass3268]

What's Tester's shot to hang on?

82% chance of winning.

[Gass3268]

Per CNN: Bill Nelson officially requesting a recount in his race against Rick Scott.

I think the difference of about 34,000 votes is too wide to turn this. Another one of the countless Florida heartbreakers (president 2000, governors 2010, 2014, 2018). The only one out of the uncalled senate races with a shot is Tester.

The margin has since dropped to 30,000 votes.

Someone just said that there is a ton of absentee and provisional ballots too.

[Gass3268]

So, uh.

WV-02 ended up being closer than WV-03.

Even in West Virginia we saw the urban-suburban/rural divide. Manchin won all of the counties with decent sized cities in them (Kanawha, Cabell, Monongalia, Ohio, Marion) plus the DC suburban county (Jefferson), while losing many places in traditional Democratic coal country. This bled down ballot.

[Gass3268]

It's kinda looking like ME-2 is gonna go down to the wire...

It will come down to the ranked choice. I imagine Polquin will sue if he loses via ranked choice.

[Gass3268]

FL is still tightening.
Nelson down 30K.
Gillum down 50K.

Just saw. CNN is ahead of NYT here. That was a net of about 4k for Nelson since first thing this morning. Maybe Nelson can pull it out? Seems unlikely to me but I guess not entirely impossible. Gillum is done, though.

https://twitter.com/AprilDRyan/status/1060196196948566017

Gillum camp thinks that when all votes are counted they will be down 15K, so a gain of 35K. If you extrapolate that to Nelson he's up by 5K.

[Gass3268]

AP calls it for Tester

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1060230016993243136

[Gass3268]

Looks like Andy Kim is going to take the lead in NJ-03.

https://twitter.com/amysrosenberg/status/1060272129277652992

11-1 Democratic New Jersey activate!

[Gass3268]

What happened to Richard Ojeda? I really thought he would win his race.

West Virginia happened.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1060278628548837376

[Gass3268]

Remember how long it took Orange County to finish counting the primary and determine that Rouda had made the runoff.

We are looking at until after Thanksgiving at the earliest, maybe early December.

[Gass3268]

With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now.

Cory Gardner is very afraid right now.

As he should for wanting to ban condoms.