Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[GeorgiaModerate]

Checked in on Bill Mitchell's feed and he's whining about Fox calling the House so early.  BTW, this is his pinned tweet:

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/1057216663198855169

[GeorgiaModerate]

It begins:

https://twitter.com/GeoffRBennett/status/1060011974875119616

[GeorgiaModerate]

Checked in on Bill Mitchell's feed and he's whining about Fox calling the House so early.  BTW, this is his pinned tweet:

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/1057216663198855169

dudes just a cheerleader for trump. ignore him

Oh, I know, that's why I wanted to see what his reaction was.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Who the hell is this Horn dude and why is he, a Democrat, winning in Oklahoma?

Well, to start with he's a she.

[GeorgiaModerate]

89% Kemp is up by 8 in GA.   

Atlanta area always counts last, and that is the case here also. Just look at Fulton and DeKalb.

There's not enough left in Fulton/DeKalb.  Kemp has this.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why is Nevada taking so long?

Anyone know?

I think some polling places were open late

Yes, and don't forget that voters still in line when the polls close still get to vote.  The Elections Board tweeted:

https://twitter.com/NVElect/status/1060008459788181504

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats retain MA-Gov and VT-Gov

Republicans.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hey guys Atlas didn't crash! Thanks Dave!!!

And Virginia, for crafting the changes to help keep it up.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Best tweet I've seen tonight:

https://twitter.com/MattOswaltVA/status/1060018610230312962

[GeorgiaModerate]

Has Carolyn Bourdeaux won? Wow.

CNN has her up 52.1-47.9 with 97% in. I'm amazed as well.

I called this one in the Bold Predictions thread a while ago.  Woodall ran a nonexistent campaign (zero TV ads) while Bourdeaux was very visible.  Between that, the changing demographics in Gwinnett, and the Abrams GOTV effort turning out Democrats, this was my top pick for an upset.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Final thoughts before going to bed.  I wrote this in the Election Day tips thread:

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It's a mixed result, a split decision, which in general is in line with my expectations.  But I'm definitely in the first category above, not the second; my side achieved the single most important goal, flipping the House.  Not achieving this would have been a disaster.  Certainly there are some results I'm disappointed in, especially here in Georgia (although there are bright spots, like GA-07).  But on the whole I feel the wins outweigh the losses, and I'll sleep well tonight -- something that didn't happen in 2016.

Good night, everyone.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Something to remember: outside of the Atlas/punditsphere, a majority of Americans were expecting Republicans to hold both the House and the Senate.

Huh, I didn't notice that pre-election.  Do you have a source on this? (Genuine asking)

In the last Gallup poll, Americans expected the Republicans to take the House by 50-44...despite favoring the Democratic candidates by 54-43.  Source.  Interestingly, Gallup has asked this question in several previous midterms going back to 1946, and this is the first time the public's prediction has been wrong.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Love that like 95% of the reaction Online is either ridiculous, excessive DOOM or delusional optimism.

"We took the House, but the Senate is lost until the year 3000.  Maybe then we'll be able to flip Saturn, but Venus is a Longshot Republican stronghold."

LOL

[GeorgiaModerate]

A friendly wager between Ben Kenobi and myself:

If you are confident that R's will gain seats, how about a friendly wager on it?  Specifically, if the D's end up with fewer than 195 total House seats, I'll change my avatar to match your current one until the end of November.  But if they end up with 195 or more, you change your avatar to I-GA for the same period.  Agreed?

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Which is sort of my point, no? Mine at least has polls that reflect the outcome.

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Why not straight up D takes the house you win. D falls short, I win. Simpler, and that's really the crux of the matter, no?

Fair enough.  It's a bet.

Ben, you can change your avatar now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Remember how long it took Orange County to finish counting the primary and determine that Rouda had made the runoff.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Are they gonna call GA-06 or...

I think there are still a bunch of provisionals out in Fulton, so probably not until those are all resolved.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm old enough to remember the hot takes in the GA-06 special that if Handel won, she'd lock down the seat for Republicans for years to come.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Karma dictates that Nelson wins by 537 votes after a recount.

[GeorgiaModerate]

C'mon Florida, come through for Dems for once.

Let there be just one year when you go Dem by .01%, rather than going R by .01%.

2012 Presidential results in Florida:

Barack Obama 50.01% 

(Romney got 49.13%, the rest to minor candidates.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rubio is starting to get whiney on Twitter.

Stop please, this damn race must be declared. I'm tired of hearing that Nelson has this

You'd rather something be declared quickly than wait for a full accounting of votes?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Any idea as to how UT-04 will end up?  That one looks like it might be a nail biter in the end.

McAdams has enough of a lead that this isn't really in doubt.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1060615070890086400

[GeorgiaModerate]

Calling it now: MN-SEN 2008 redux.

Except in Florida, it will be Alligator People rather than Lizard.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is it now close to certain Jeff Denham and Young Kim have lost?

Why do you say that?

Absentees in California break heavily Democratic, but I'm not sure they'll be enough.

both of these races are within 2,000 votes

AP says Kim is ahead by almost 4,000.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The time factor was an important part of the 2000 presidential recount controversy.  There was a need to get it resolved quickly since Florida's electoral votes would be decisive.  But that doesn't exist here, since there's plenty of precedent for a Senate recount to drag on long past the start of the new Congress.