Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Gass3268]

This was a bucket B batch:

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1061406967686746112

Devastating for McSally.

[Gass3268]

So what was dropped the Pro-Sinema vote bucket or the Pro-McSally vote bucket?  I'm confused.

It was Bucket B, which should have been pro-McSally.

[Gass3268]

Do we know how many Batch B votes are actually left? If there were 200K left yesterday, and at least 50K of those were counted today, the math becomes basically impossible for McSally.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061417560657162240

Maricopa Totals: ~198,000
Maricopa Batch A: ~50,000
Maricopa Batch B: ~148,000

[Gass3268]

Stick a fork in McSally, she's done.

when will dems stick a fork in Nelson?

I mean, there's a difference between a 1.3% deficit and a 0.15% deficit, though most of us aren't really holding out much hope at all for Nelson. Either way, the votes in both states should be counted in their entirety, and it's disheartening (though not surprising) that there are many in the country who can't at least agree on that.

In the minute by minute news cycle it had to be done on Tuesday, otherwise it doesn't count.

[Gass3268]

Yeah, that means there are at most 180K McSally-friendly votes left. She'd need to win those by 15-16 points just to pull even, and that's not counting the remaining votes that favor Sinema.

Esepcially considering as of now she's only winning the E-Day vote by in the county by 5.2%.

https://twitter.com/treyterry/status/1060743241010577414

[Gass3268]

Hmm not much of a boost for Dems in that Cali dump, is that unusual how much did they count?

Eyeballing it, it looks like about 8-9K per race.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1061428139153334273

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061429648305795072

https://twitter.com/DrRyanLove/status/1061430504291995649

[Gass3268]

Even the Sinema camp was conceding batch B was R+10 and the McSally camp confirmed it per Vaughn Hillyard tweet. And the theory of the batch being more favorable to her was confirmed by today's dump as it was much less than previous which were from batch A.

Even if it's R+10 that's not enough.

[Gass3268]

Big dump for Sinema out of Coconino:

https://twitter.com/DrRyanLove/status/1061432793803169792

[Gass3268]

Any reason why the latest OC returns have been less Democratic than the previous couple days? Is it something we should extrapolate from, or is it just noise and we can expect another good batch tomorrow?

I really want Katie Porter to pull this off.

I'm not sure, but I remember when we waited during the primary. There was a lull in the middle where  the Republicans did a bit better.

[Gass3268]

Any reason why the latest OC returns have been less Democratic than the previous couple days? Is it something we should extrapolate from, or is it just noise and we can expect another good batch tomorrow?

I really want Katie Porter to pull this off.

More importantly, Cisneros really needs to win.  Somewhere along the line I got more invested in that race than like 80% of competitive house seats. 

I'm not sure how much counting Los Angeles County has done. They don't seem to be on the same regular schedule as Orange County.

[Gass3268]

Any reason why the latest OC returns have been less Democratic than the previous couple days? Is it something we should extrapolate from, or is it just noise and we can expect another good batch tomorrow?

I really want Katie Porter to pull this off.

More importantly, Cisneros really needs to win.  Somewhere along the line I got more invested in that race than like 80% of competitive house seats.  

I'm not sure how much counting Los Angeles County has done. They don't seem to be on the same regular schedule as Orange County.

Los Angeles County isn't updating until Tuesday afternoon. San Bernardino County is updating on Wednesday.

Yeah, LA County is where Cisneros is most likely to get votes he needs to win.

[Gass3268]

NJ-3 is still oddly uncalled.

There are still provisionals in each county.

[Gass3268]

Only 36K was counted in Maricopa County today.

[Gass3268]

All of its supposedly going to be McSally's fabled R+10 batch. And I hate how this is starting to drag out, yesterday was supposed to be the crucial day and now it was going to be today, but 36K may not be conclusive enough to make a call.

She’s only winning the Election Day votes counted so far by 5.2% in Maricopa County. She needs triple that margin in all of the votes remaining. Stop worrying.

[Gass3268]

This is just the way AZ counts votes guys. It's nothing new. Just be happy that House control didn't come down to all these glacial California races.

Trump would have sent the army to Orange County.

[Gass3268]

Maricopa incoming!

[Gass3268]

Sinema increased by 3K

But I was told to be worried because reasons!

[Gass3268]

It's not 7 there yet.

Looks like the NYT got it early.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1061773342112247808?s=21

[Gass3268]

Remember back when some Republicans here thought McSally was the only one of the GOP primary trio who would defeat Sinema?

TBF, she probably was the only one who could have made it close.

[Gass3268]

Pinal posted, essentially no change in the Senate race, Gaynor is back in front by 259 votes.

[Gass3268]

Pinal posted, essentially no change in the Senate race, Gaynor is back in front by 259 votes.

All of Pinal?  Unless there really is heavily Republican stuff left in Maricopa, Hobbs is going to win with Pima (doesn't even matter for Sinema at this point).

Not sure yet, Garrett Archer is posting an update here soon.

[Gass3268]

Pinal posted, essentially no change in the Senate race, Gaynor is back in front by 259 votes.

All of Pinal?  Unless there really is heavily Republican stuff left in Maricopa, Hobbs is going to win with Pima (doesn't even matter for Sinema at this point).

I think theres about 14,000 votes left in Pinal. But we havent had a single "bucket" from Pima today which has 36,000 votes left.

Edit: Scratch that, Pinal has 7,000 votes left.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061789579013812224

Pima isn't reporting again until Tuesday. Day off with the holiday tomorrow.