Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[RI]

Another way of looking at the Cuyahoga numbers:

Majority-white precincts: 56.5% of 2016 total turnout
Majority-black precincts: 46.2% of 2016 total turnout
>30% Hispanic precincts: 34.0% of 2016 total turnout

Clinton-majority precincts: 50.9% of 2016 total turnout
-----White Clinton-majority precincts: 55.7%
Trump-majority precincts: 59.3% of 2016 total turnout

Clinton-swinging precincts: 59.4% of 2016 total turnout
Trump-swinging precincts: 49.1% of 2016 total turnout
------White Trump-swinging precincts: 52.5%

So yes, minority turnout is relatively low, and yes, anti-Trump suburbanites are energized.

[J. J.]

A cool tracker of turnout in Philadelphia by ward: https://jtannen.github.io/election_tracker.html

Based on self-reporting though, so perhaps take it with a grain of salt.

It looks like the one ward that is colored yellow with disproportionately high turnout is the ward with the University of Pennsylvania. So that looks like probably very good student/youth turnout there FWIW.

Of course they must all be voting R because Trump is a Wharton alum.

Disproportionately low Hispanic and black turnout, which is what I was seeing.

Edited to add:  No on students; Temple University is the middle of North Philadelphia and the area is dark blue.

[progressive85]

Can't believe NYT is still charging people to see the results.

The weather in Boston area is God awful - at 2 it was so dark it felt like 8 because of the clouds and the rain.

[RI]

Old people in FL are turning out like mad: 72% of 2016 ED votes cast in Sumter County, 69% in Collier---two highest in FL.

[Torrain]

Can't believe NYT is still charging people to see the results.

The weather in Boston area is God awful - at 2 it was so dark it felt like 8 because of the clouds and the rain.

Paywall’s down until Thursday, although you might need an account (no payment) to access the page. I’m a lapsed subscriber (student on a budget) and I just got an email saying as much.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Also I'd like to see a comparison to 2014 before I would say that black or Latino turnout is bad.

In the TargetSmart early vote data, the African American vote share is slightly down from 2014. Hispanic vote share is very slightly up.

In most other states early vote, there is a bigger increase in African American/Hispanic early vote turnout. Of course, early vote is not election day... and yes, a precinct level comparison to 2014/2016 would be nice. But not really confidence inspiring as compared to other states.

Cordray could still win on the basis of winning independents though, I just don't think it is at all a gimme, and of the big Gov races it is probably the #1 that I am most worried about at the moment.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I really don't see how you can get these margins among white college graduate women without winning over registered Republicans (or at least those who used to be registered Republicans).

I am pretty sure Ohio doesn't have party registration, so that shouldn't be a factor here (but certainly is in many other states, e.g. Arizona).

[RI]

Also I'd like to see a comparison to 2014 before I would say that black or Latino turnout is bad.

In the TargetSmart early vote data, the African American vote share is slightly down from 2014. Hispanic vote share is very slightly up.

In most other states early vote, there is a bigger increase in African American/Hispanic early vote turnout. Of course, early vote is not election day... and yes, a precinct level comparison to 2014/2016 would be nice. But not really confidence inspiring as compared to other states.

Cordray could still win on the basis of winning independents though, I just don't think it is at all a gimme, and of the big Gov races it is probably the #1 that I am most worried about at the moment.

Hispanic precincts had the biggest drop-off between 2016 and 2018 in my analysis of Clark County, NV early/mail voting.

[Gass3268]

Democrats keep adding to the Clark County Freiwal.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1059890884043431936

[Hindsight was 2020]

Anyone know what this site is because predictit won’t stop spamming it as proof Scott will win https://thefloridasqueeze.com

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Old people in FL are turning out like mad: 72% of 2016 ED votes cast in Sumter County, 69% in Collier---two highest in FL.

Sumter = The Villages

Collier = Naples

A lot of olds in both places, so at least to some degree that should probably be expected, unless it is way higher than in 2014/2016.

[GP270watch]

Old people in FL are turning out like mad: 72% of 2016 ED votes cast in Sumter County, 69% in Collier---two highest in FL.

They always do.

One of the stories of Florida that doesn't get a lot of buzz, is that some of the fastest growing areas of the state are heavily Republican. They turn out in droves and it eats into the big margins Democrats get out of the South East counties.

[ajc0918]

Anyone know what this site is because predictit won’t stop spamming it as proof Scott will win https://thefloridasqueeze.com

He's a doom and gloomer, everything he says is either "Dems running away with it" or "ZERO chance for the Dems"

Dems I know feel pretty good right now but things could obviously change.

[Matty]

As of 2:20 PM,

Collier county at 66% turnout

Lee county at 60%

Brevard at 60%

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Hispanic precincts had the biggest drop-off between 2016 and 2018 in my analysis of Clark County, NV early/mail voting.

But Hispanics have the biggest % increase in the TargetSmart data. That compares to 2014. So really it probably depends on if you compare to 2014 or 2016. Hispanic turnout may look good in comparison to 2014, perhaps a bit less good (or bad) in comparison to 2016.

[RI]

Hispanic precincts had the biggest drop-off between 2016 and 2018 in my analysis of Clark County, NV early/mail voting.

But Hispanics have the biggest % increase in the TargetSmart data. That compares to 2014. So really it probably depends on if you compare to 2014 or 2016. Hispanic turnout may look good in comparison to 2014, perhaps a bit less good (or bad) in comparison to 2016.

TargetSmart's data says that the Hispanic share of the electorate has increased since 2014, which is not surprising as the Hispanic share of the population overall has increased since 2014. What I'm saying is that relative to 2016, there has been a larger drop-off in turnout in Hispanic precincts than white precincts (at least in Clark and Cuyahoga). Both are possible if there are more total Hispanics, but the rate at which any individual Hispanic turns out to vote is down.

[Gass3268]

This is petty and fun:

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1059893731174858754

[KingSweden]

This is petty and fun:

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1059893731174858754

Ahahahaha

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059891876046749696

[Yank2133]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[RI]

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059891876046749696

Comparing to 2010 seems like an odd decision.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059891876046749696

Comparing to 2010 seems like an odd decision.

Last competitive midterm in Ohio?

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059891876046749696

Someone will need to explain why that’s the case - presuming lower turnout in D strongholds is... bad for Rs? What?

[Gass3268]

Lol

https://twitter.com/BobMenendezNJ/status/1059873727561768960

[RI]

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059891876046749696

Comparing to 2010 seems like an odd decision.

Last competitive midterm in Ohio?

I get that, but A LOT has changed in 8 years.